I think the only conclusion that can be drawn after a day
like today, is that I should take more breaks ! If I do however, I’ll maybe give
some thought to staking, next time…
That said – and in fairness to me – I was deliberately
cautious with the staking today, for good reason…
I don’t like ‘messing’ with what I am tipping – and I did
that a bit today. If it had gone wrong, the last thing I wanted to do, was
compound the situation by losing us a lot of points.
The staking on Workbench (who was the more conventional
tip) was low, simply because he was a risky selection…
Anyway, the experiment with tipping a couple of
relatively short priced ones, was a success
- and whilst one swallow doesn’t make a summer, it does at least give me
the confidence to continue along this path…
Bizarrely (considering how little we won from him), the
most important tip of the day was probably Top Dancer…
Hand on heart, he should have been a 2pt tip (at least
!). Like I said this morning, he ticked every box – and I could see flaws in all
of his opponents.
With hindsight, 11/4 was a gift…
If I was maybe a little more ruthless, I would have
exploited the situation, instead of which, we won just enough to pay for the
other bets on the day.
Of course, not all 11/4 shots will win like he did.
Of course, not all 11/4 shots will win like he did.
Cruising round, then taking up the running 3 from home,
before staying on strongly..
If they all won like that, it would be a very easy
game…
Next up was Bohemian Rhapsody…
He was more risky – but a compelling case could be made
for him
I was a little worried about that case though, when I saw
how weak he was in the betting – and also saw him held up at the back of the
field in a slowly run race.
However, he demonstrated that he does have 20lb in hand
of his handicap mark, as he sliced through the field and took up the running at
the second last.
Unfortunately, he jumped poorly at that flight – and even
worse at the next – and ultimately those jumping errors probably cost him
victory…
I guess we were also a little unlucky to bump into
another horse in the race who was as well handicapped as him – but these things
happen (particularly in novice races)..
The final tip to run was Workbench…
He came from the more speculative end of the tipping
spectrum – but was a decent price and I felt a case could be made for him – and
boy did he not disappoint…!
Jumping from fence to fence, he made just about all.
As I thought, the good ground and quick track were ideal
for him – and he took to he bigger obstacles as I hoped he would.
All in all then, a very good day for the tips…
The mentions didn’t do so well however (ha !).
I am Colin did his best against Bohemian – but he doesn’t
have 20lb in hand of his current mark…
Rozolenn looked to be remembering his last time out fall,
whilst Cloudingstar just wasn’t as well handicapped as the market evidently
thought…
On the Shannon ran the race I expected – it was almost
amusing to see…
Whilst Puffin Billy could never get to grips with
Ifandbutwhynot…
Yes, that’s the same Ifandbutwhy not that I was so sweet
on for the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham, last time out…
He was impeded by a lose horse that day and whilst I
didn’t think that had adversely impacted is chance - maybe I was wrong…
Under a much more enterprising ride today. He just about made all and won by a comfortable 4 lengths.
Under a much more enterprising ride today. He just about made all and won by a comfortable 4 lengths.
I think we can consider ourselves a little unlucky last
time…
On to tomorrow then – with the hope that I can show that
today wasn’t just a flash in the pan !!
Fingers crossed…
TVB.
TVB.
Good work today Andrew!
ReplyDeleteCheers Stephen.
ReplyDeleteI would certainly like all of my tips to perform like Top Dancer did - he certainly put forward a compelling argument for tipping solid, short priced horses...
A.
Top Dancer did it really well,yes I agree there is nothing wrong with a solid shorter priced winner,I would always welcome a 11/4 winner!! Really enjoyed watching benchwork as race unfolded I was saying to myself this fella might not be caught!! Great work,I had a small bet on ifandbutwhynot,I took your advice if big guns didn't fire he might take advantage,I was in cheltenham when he disappointed in greatwood and just felt he was better than that,good start to newbury weekend
ReplyDeleteWell done with Ifandbutwhynot Liam… I obviously considered him last night – but it did look a hell of a race to untangle… He was strong in the betting today – which struck me as significant (Jonjo’s horse was very weak). He was clearly unable to show his true form last time - that said, I didn’t expect him to make all today !! Top Dancer was text book – whilst Workbench was an inspired bit of guesswork (based on a few subtle signs, obviously ;) )
ReplyDeleteA