Daily write-up - Nov 21st

4 meetings today, at Chepstow, Wincanton and Market Rasen in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland…

As I mentioned in yesterdays review, I’m going on a school trip today !

The sole parent helper, who along with 2 members of staff, will be looking after 30 excited 8 years olds as they make their way around the National Space centre.
Wish me luck !

It was my intention to tip today – if the right horses were there. But simply, after spending a couple of hours looking thorugh the form last night, there was nothing that  I felt sufficiently strongly about, to be prepared to take the plunge…

Obviously part of the issue is that I would be selecting a horse semi-blind with regards to it’s price.

If the case was sufficiently compelling, I would be prepared to do that, but there was nothing I felt that strongly about.

As a consequence, you will get a host of mentions.

Some of them will be quite strong mentions – and in different circumstances, could well have been tips. I’ll leave you to decide which they are.

Onto a brief preview for each of the meetings then – and don’t forget to think of me whilst you are watching the racing this afternoon…

Chepstow

Heavy ground at Chepstow is really heavy ground…

Plenty of horses won’t act on it – and I would always have a preference for a lightly weighted animal…

As a consequence, my eye was drawn to Hectors House in the handicap chase at 1:10.

He’s a bit of a plodder and the trip may be on the short side for him – but he only has a feather weight to carry and should handle the going…

I expected him to be one that slipped under the radar – but I was wrong… The early 10/1 was down to 5/1 late yesterday evening. I wouldn’t be prepared to take the risk at that price.

Instead, my preference would be for Missionaire, who is a similar price – but has much better form. He has more weight to carry, but hopefully he will be up to the task…

I would have got close to a tip in 2:50 – in fact, I would have got close to 2 tips !!
The first one to catch my eye, was Umberto D’Olivate. He ran much better than it would appear last time out, when a slip on the home turn cost him any chance of victory.

I would have been very interested in him today in normal circumstances; but first time over fences in this country, in the mud at Chepstow, isn’t really normal circumstances. Furthermore, he is a best price 5/1, which would have to temper enthusiasm…

Todareistodo is a better price – and arguably a more solid option.

He won in the mud at Towcester last season , so conditions should hold no fears for him. He should also be sharper for a pipe opener over hurdles at this track, a fortnight ago. Sat at the bottom of the weights, he is quite a strong mention…

Finally, the last race on the Chepstow card brings together a couple of mentions from last week in Just Cloudy and Kings Apollo.

I was really impressed by the attitude and jumping of Just Cloudy, in his defeat at Huntingdon. It is likely he bumped into one that day in Tigresse Bleue, so in the circumstances, he did very well to finished second.

He has been raised 5lb for that effort but gets to run off his old mark today. I would expect him to run another solid race…

However, I fear that in Kings Apollo, he might again have run into one a bit better handicapped.

He won a race at Ludlow, which looked most improbable at half way. However he showed great staying power that day and a step up in trip looks tailor made for him.
As with Just Lucky, he is well in on the official weights today and I would expect him to capitalise on that situation - provided he can handle the ground (which is an unknown)…

Wincanton

Unlike Chepstow, the going at Wincanton is apparently good (and the 2 course aren’t that far part – relatively speaking – so I’m not sure how that’s happened !)…

In the 1:20 race, Old Tricks is of some interest…

There are plenty of question marks about him – but fundamentally, I think he is better than his 115 rating.
That said, I don’t believe that todays trip and ground are ideal for him – and he has show limited aptitude for fencing (though admittedly he’s only had two tries).

If it does all come together, he has the ability to win this easily – but there is big question mark over whether that will happen…

There are far fewer question marks over Carrigmorna King in the following race on the card, and he is a strong mention.

He would certainly have been a tip, if the 12/1 available early last night had still been available.

However, I can see a few potent dangers – and whilst I would expect him to at least  place, I wouldn’t be confident of victory.

Backing a horse at 8/1 to place has limited appeal (as I said on Saturday, with Creepy !) so on balance, I decide to let him go untipped.

Suffice to say, ground, trip and handicap mark are all good – and he is the only runner at he track for Philip Hobbs.

Beachfire, Jetnova  and Sound Investment, are all legitimate rivals – whilst it wouldn’t surprise me to see Bygones Sovereign bounce back to form.

Market Rasen

The other horse I considered tipping today, is Talkin Thomas, who runs in the handicap chase at 1:30…

That said, part of the reason I became interested in him was because the price of my other half fancy in the race, The Magic Bishop, collapsed !

In fairness to Talkin Thomas, a reasonable case can be made for him.

He was quite a decent novice hurdler last season and threatened to make an even better novice chaser this time around. Certainly there was huge promise in his chasing debut at Sedgefield, where he finished third despite making a blunder at the third last fence, that would have stopped most horses.

He is stepped up in trip today – but I would expect him to benefit from that and if he does, he will go close.

In the following race on the card, I would have been very tempted by Act of Kalanisi.

Simply, he is better than his current rating – and showed that he was hitting form with his last time out run at Cheltenham.

I have a few concerns over the trip (particularly if the ground gets soft) and a few more about the opposition (some of whom are very unexposed), but all things being equal, I think he will take the beating…

Thurles

There is an interesting card at Thurles – but not one which presents many betting opportunities…

It will be fascinating to see how Trifolium gets on in the opening novice chase.

He was a class above his opponents as a novice hurdler – but has not run for almost a year.

If he is back to his best he should win comfortably – if not, Starkie is the one most likely to take advantage…

Here’s to a great day ahead – whether it be at the racecourse, or the Space centre !!

TVB.

Mentions

Chep 1:10 Missionaire (C)

Chep 2:50 Todareistodo (O) & Umberto D’Olivate (P)

Chep 3:50 Kings Apollo (C)

Winc 1:20 New Tricks (C)

Winc 1:50 Carrigmorna King (O)

MR 1:30 Talkin Thomas (O) & The Magic Bishop (P)

MR 2:05 Act of Kalanisi (O)