Review of the day

I think that today just has to go down as one of those days…

I was there – or thereabouts – with most of my analysis, but I got a couple of calls wrong (not helped by the uncertainty of the weather) and we just didn’t get that bit of luck, which you always need.

Looking at the crib sheet I use, I find it quite amazing that I managed to give us a losing day – but my talents clearly have no bounds !!

And it all started so well (relatively speaking !).

I was feeling quite smug after the first race at Naas, where Dylan Ross performed almost exactly as I expected him to do…

Cruising in behind the leader, Rupert Lamb, he touched 1.6 in-running – but didn’t want to go past.

It just showed how important it is to find animals with the right attitude…

Later on the Naas card, there was nothing wrong with the attitude of Operating - he just ran into 2 more talented animals.

He ran a fair race to finish third – but Road to Riches and Foxrock (in particular) just looked to have more ability…

Ruler of All was the next tip to run, in the elite hurdle at Wincanton.
He also ran OK – but wasn’t up to the grade.

He propensity to run – and veer – to his left, didn’t help his cause, but the first 3 home were simply much better class.

He will remain of interest, in the right grade - ideally going the other way round !!

The biggest disappointment of the day, was the run of Garleton.
I was quite sweet on him and would almost certainly have staked him more aggressively, but for the presence of Sa Suffit and Blenheim Brook.

Well, neither of those 2 ran much of a race (despite the latter being very well backed) – but neither did Garleton.

His jumping wasn’t up to its normal standard and he was beaten when tackled at the second last fence.

I wouldn’t plan on supporting him again in the immediate future.

We then had quite a while to wait before the next tip ran…

That was Fox Appeal at Wincanton and when he jumped the last, a length up, it looked like he would balance the books for the day.

However, the removal of the original last fence meant that the run in was far longer than normal – and it gave time for Nick Schofield to gather up Wonderful Charm, take aim at Fox Appeal and ultimately gather him in…

I can’t claim we were unlucky – Wonderful Charm was the best horse in the race.

However Fox Appeal made a shuddering mistake at the fifth last – whilst taking away  the final fence clearly didn’t help his cause…

The last tips to run, were Gorgehous Lleige and Lough Coi, at Sandown.

The case for them was based around there being a lot of rain at Sandown – and amazingly, the rain materialised.
As a consequence, Gorgehous Liege was backed into 11/4 fav (from the 15/2 we got) – a least we secured the value !

What was also annoying was that the 3 morning favourites didn’t really act on the going – but it was an exposed outsider (and not Lough Coi) who took advantage.

Fine Parchment jumped like a buck and was never headed throughout the race.

We’ve been with him in the past but it would have been a difficult call to make today.

Another difficult call to make, would have been Plein Pouvoir…

Granted he had ideal conditions of 2m5f and top weight – and Venetia’s horses could hardly be in better form – but I didn’t think the ground was going to be soft enough for him (or more accurately, soft enough to slow the others down).

However that wasn’t the case, and having taken up the running going out on to the second circuit, he never really looked like getting beaten.
It was good to see the old boy clocking up another victory - even if it would have been even better if we had been on him !!

Alvarado was declared a NR in the Badger Ale chase – and it was left to the horse that I’d fancied all week, to come home a convincing winner (he had too really, didn’t he !).

Standing Ovation was an easy 6/1 shot this morning (presumably because of concerns over the ground) but he became strong in the betting as the day wore on (and as people realised the ground wasn’t particularly soft).

He was eventually sent off 5/2 favourite – but that price looked decidedly generous for most of the race as he travelled strongly and won in a common canter…

Whispering Bob didn’t run much of a race in the opener – but I was wrong in thinking that Noel Fehily had gone to Wincanton for his rides in the big races…

He did however mange to secure a double on the day courtesy of his two rides for Harry Fry – whilst Charlie Longsdons 2 runners at Sandown were both disappointing (so I got part of it right !).

Granddads Horse did manage to run on to take third place in the first of those 2 races – but he was miles behind the comfortable winner Kapga De Cerisy.

He was another one for Venetia – and along with Standing Ovation, the first horse I looked at last night. However, I figured he was a bit too obvious !!

Earlier on the Sandown card, Grandouet finally unshipped Barry Geraghty after putting in a particularly hairy round of jumping.

In fairness, he was quite good at some of his fences – but it looked the product of extensive schooling rather than natural ability.

Based on his run today, I can’t see him hitting the heights over fences.

At Kelso, Mr Moonshine was disappointing in the other handicap chase on the card – but Upsilon Bleu ran very promisingly (even though he could only finished third).

Whilst those wishing to secure 50/1 about Summer Star on the home turn at Naas, would have been accommodated with open arms.

He was tailed off by that point and a 1000/1 would not have got close to accurately reflecting his chances…

So the end of a disappoint day – but these things happen.

I have now been tipping for 7 days – including 2 Saturdays – and I feel like I’m back into the swing of things.

I don’t think my reading of races will improve significantly from where it is, so it is now time to move to the staking that I originally intended for this season.

So far, the majority of the bets have been 0.5pt – from tomorrow that will change to 1pt.

0.5pt & 0.25pt bets will still exist – but for horses that I don’t quite feel so confident about.

Similarly, I will look to go above the 1pt barrier on occasions – though maybe not too often !

One final thing:

I would like to be a lot more active in the ante post markets this season.

I think it is an area where we might be able to find an edge. Clearly it is a risky area to operate in – but if I can get one or two calls right, the rewards should be significant.

To this end, I will be issuing the first ante-post tip later this evening – with the promise of many more to follow in the next few days and weeks…

TVB.