Daily write-up - Nov 10th

There are 4 NH meetings today: 2 in the UK at Ffos Las and Market Rasen; and 2 in Ireland at Navan and Limerick. Lots of action – but limited betting opportunities…

I’m sure a few of you wondered what was going on this morning, when I issued a 0.5pt win tip the day after I said I would be switching to 1pt win as my ‘standard’ stake !

However I also said that there would still be 0.5pt win bets (and 0.25pt win bets) for selections that I didn’t fancy quite as much – and simply, Ringa Bay falls into that category.

So, straight on to the rationale for todays tip – and a few words on some of the other interesting races that will be taking place this afternoon…

Market Rasen

2:15

There is no doubt that this is quite a trappy race (which is part of the reason why Ringa Bay is staked as he is).

I could make out decent cases for the top 4 in the market – and couldn’t completely rule out the remainder.

However, the one that potentially interests me most, is Ringa Bay…

He was quite a prolific PTP winner a few seasons back and also took a couple of hunter chases (including a victory over Alvarado).

He made the switch to racing under rules last December and after an initial run in an AW bumper, ran third in his first handicap chase, at Lingfield.

He followed up that run with a victory over Preuty Boy at the same course – and then ran probably his best race of the campaign, at Newbury…

Despite makig a number of jumping mistakes, he finished a highly creditable third to Loch Ba in a very competitive handicap chase at Newbury.

That run seem to signify that Ringa Bay was destined for better things – but better things didn’t materialise…

He ran 3 more times last season but was disappointing on each occasion.

Over the summer, he was transferred to the stable of David Bridgewater.

He made his debut for Bridgewater at the end of last month in a 3 mile chase at Ludlow.

Ringa Bay was very well backed that day, ultimately going off 3/1 favourite. However, he put in a deliberate round of jumping on ground that was maybe a little too quick for him and ultimately finished well beaten…

He will need to improve markedly on that debut run if he is to feature today – but hopefully he can do just that.

I certainly believe that he has the ability to win a race like  todays off his current mark – and the way he was backed last time out, suggests I’m not the only one who feels that way…

Of his opponents, Balbriggen looks potentially very interesting. He won what turned out to be a very hot novice chase, first time up last season – and still looks well treated in the handicap.

I’m not a particular fan of Little Chip – though there can be no denying than he won easily here on his penultimate outing; whilst Italian Master could be of interest on his first run for Dan Skleton and Honest John could also go well if he can recapture his form from early last season…

All in all then, a tough race !
However, it’s all about value and odds – and at 10/1 Ringa Bay represents a bit of value to pick up the promise he showed early last season.

0.5pt win Ringa Bay 10/1

The following novice handicap chase looks a real cracker…

There has been solid support for Gullinbursti –and I can fully understand that. However Dursey Sound also looked a horse of considerable promise when he won at Bangor.

In an average race of this nature, I could be interested in Bar De Ligne, whilst I could also see Dunlough Bay running well, at a big price.

Very much a race to watch and learn from…

Ffos Las

I could potentially have been interested in one or two at this meeting.

However the small fields and likely desperate ground, have persuaded me to take the cautious route.

A few decent mentions, non the less…

The first of which is Victors Serenade in the 2:35 race.

He dotted up in a chase over this course and distance, 20 months ago and if he is in the same form today , he will take the beating off a mark just 2lb higher…

There is no doubt that he will relish todays heavy ground – and it would be unlike his trainer, Anthony Honeyball, not to have one of his spot on.

He ticks a lot of boxes, that’s for sure – but there are others in the race who I could also make a case for – and a best price of 11/4 is not quite enticing enough…

In the 3:05 race, the price for Xaarcet is fair enough…

In fact, he could easily have been a tip – but its not a race that I could easily get a handle on. Add to that the fact that Xaarcet is making his seasonal debut - and it’s his first run over fences – and you can see why I would have struggle to make him a tip…

On the plus side, he should relish todays ground and trip; looks like a chaser in the making – and is the only runner that Colin Tizzard sends to the course.

You’ve read the facts, you can make your own minds up – I’ll just make him a mention !!

I’m sure a few of you half expected me to be tipping Night Alliance in the 3:35 race, after his near miss for us last Sunday…

Over half a mile less – or on Better ground – I almost certainly would have done (and I would have been very keen aswell).

However, he is a very free going sort – and I can’t help but feel that 3m on bottom less ground is a bit further than he wants to go…

Of course, if they go no pace and Tom O’ Brien manages to get him settled, he could easily come home alone. However, we won’t know whether that is going to happen until the race is under way.

The mountain of money behind Whiskey and Red also worries me – so on balance, another mention !!

Navan

Navan host an interesting card – but not one with many betting opportunities…

The high-light is obviously the seasonal reappearance of Flemenstar in the Fortria chase at 2:50.

This will be his first race under the care of Tony Martin and whilst the distance is a bare minimum for him, it will still be very disappointing if he is beaten.

I’ll be trying to hear the post race interview with Martin, just in case he offers a few clues for the horses likely path through the season…

In the novice hurdle at 1:20 , I could see King of the Picts giving the top 2 in the betting a run for their money.

He has a 7lb penalty to concede – but he also has the more solid form in the book.

However, I do worry that he might not be as effective on todays ground, which is likely to be a fair bit softer than he encountered last time out…

I had a good look at the novice chase which is due of at 3:25 and came to the conclusion that Some Tikket could be the one..

However, he is coming up against some potentially very decent sorts – and is unproven himself – so at 5/1, I wasn’t prepared to tip him…

Finally, keep an eye on Mala Beach in the 1:50 race.

He is the horse that reeled back Defy Logic on his final run last season. He might not be cherry ripe today – so I wouldn’t read too much into a defeat – but a victory would be a nice fillip for our ante post bet…

Limerick

Finally to Limerick, which in truth, hosts a pretty uninspiring card…

The veterans handicap chase at 3:45 is the most punter friendly race and I would offer you For a Finish in that…

He still probably has a chase in him off todays mark and his last time out run behind Dick Dundee, wasn’t without promise…

In the beginners chase at 3:15, I would be happy enough to take on the short priced favourite, The Papparazi Kid. He was a decent hurdler – but is making his seasonal and chasing debut. He will be priced up as much on his connections as his chance of victory…

If you want one at a price, try Ballysheen.

He was a decent novice hurdler a couple of seasons back – and Gigginstown have kept the faith .He will have to leave his seasonal debut behind  - but stranger things happen…

At 25/1, I think he is worth a small interest…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

MR 2:15 Ringa Bay 10/1

Mentions

Ffos 2:30 Victors Serenade (P)

Ffos 3:00 Xaarcet (O)

Ffos 3:35 Night Alliance (C)

Nav 1:20 King of the Picts (C)

Nav 3:25 Some Tikket (P)

Lim 3:15 Ballysheen (S)

Lim 3:45 For a Finish (P)