I got the distinct impression
that somebody knew a little more than us, this afternoon…
For a horse with ticks in a lot
of boxes, Time for Spring was incredibly weak in the betting.
The 6/1 opening show was 12/1 on
BF by the off – never a good sign…
I’ve put up 68 horses so far this
season – and most have been well backed.
However 22 of the 68 have started
at a bigger price (on BF) than I tipped them at – and not one has won…
A few have run well in defeat –
most notably Fox Appeal and Milord – but not one has got its head in front where
it matters…
Certainly food for thought the
next time you are watching the market movements pre-race…
It would appear that today was
about restoring the confidence of Time for Spring, in preparation for a return
to fences – and after a very pleasant jaunt round, I’m sure his confidence is
now fully restored.
Based on todays showing, he would
have to be of some interest next time out (presumably back over fences)…
Of todays mentions, then Flemi
Two Toes was the one I got closest to tipping- but fortunately (unless you
backed him !) I had read him exactly right…
His jumping was ponderous – and
the sharp track and quick ground were not what he needed.
Despite that, he ran a very
decent race to finish second.
If connections put him in a race
where conditions are suitable, he would have to go very close off his current
mark…
In the opener at Kempton, Sgt
Reckless got the better of hot favourite, West Wizard (who is presumably no
longer favourite for the Supreme novice hurdle).
It was a really good performance
from Sgt. Reckless who built on the promise of his hurdling debut.
It was the second day in a row
that I had been put off tipping one because of a single runner in the race
(yesterday it was Ratify). Some food for thought maybe…
Persian Snow disappointed in the
handicap chase, later on the card.
This looked a tough race to
unravel beforehand – and so it proved.
Giorgio Quercus ran out a game
winner – but he’s not really one I would have fancied before the race.
I did half fancy the winner of
the last race on the card – Ranjaan – but again figured the race too difficult
to solve…
There was no pace in the race,
which didn’t help the favourite, Poet. He also wouldn’t have appreciated the
quickish underfoot conditions.
I could forgive him this run –
though he does now have a bit to prove.
Finally in the bumper at Ludlow,
Shantou Tiger ran a much better race than he had done on his debut – but it
still wasn’t good enough to get him a placing.
He looks to want time and a
distance of ground.
I intend to take a day off
tomorrow (unless my alerts tell me otherwise !).
The racing looks poor - and a day
for reflection seems like a good idea…
We’ve lost our momentum a little
bit since Friday - and it would be nice to get that back.
Hopefully a day spent cogitating
will help !!
I’ll send an email out early
tomorrow morning to confirm.
TVB.
Hi Andrew,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate more than most that it can be difficult to find the right race on the right day for your horse but I do wonder if connections of Flemi Two Toes missed a trick today. You're not always right!! but you were spot on today with regard ground and track concerns for the horse. If you can see those negatives why did connections not spot them? The horse was well backed today and we know the market can be a pretty handy guide to a horse's chances (as the winner of that race also highlighted).
I’m afraid I can’t answer that question Neil…
ReplyDeleteMaybe connections live locally and wanted a runner at the track: or maybe they are just blind to what they actually have (a fairly reasonable plodder – who is probably quite well handicapped atm)…
I gave up trying to fathom out the thinking of connections last year with Cootamundra - but I won’t start on that one again !!
I guess we’ve just got to hope that they don’t run him in the wrong races too often…
He’ll likely get a pound or two for todays run – but that should be immaterial, if he is presented with the right challenge…
3 miles in the heavy at Chepstow or Ffos Las, is what he wants – ideally over hurdles (though he managed to get over the fences OK today).
Whether that will happen of course is anyones guess – but I’ll keep an eye on him, just in case connections do see the light !!
A.