4 NH meetings today, spread across the length and breadth of the British Isles…
Ascot in the south of England and Wetherby in the North; Ayr on the west coast of Scotland and Down Royal in Northern Ireland.
Do you ever feel like the world is conspiring against you ?!
Day 2 of the service and Pricewise tips the horse I fancy in the big race. I guess this will happen from time to time – and generously, most of the bookmakers revert to early evening prices for a few minutes in the morning, so the impact should be manageable.
However, in order to effectively monitor price movements, I use Oddschecker (which I’m sure most of you do as well). So what happens this morning, when the time for price reversion arrives – oddschecker isn’t working!
You couldn’t make it up !
Hopefully most of you realised that it was just the oddschecker front end that was out of action and if you clicked on a price, you were given the actual price available and not the price it was showing.
I managed to secure some of the 14/1 about Merry King with B365 – and I know of others who got 12/1 with WH and PP.
I will settle him at 10/1, if he does manage to come home in front, as he is still available at that price as I write this….
As an aside, the is a site called odds-comparison.co.uk, which I have as a back-up in case of issues with oddschecker. It doesn’t cover as many bookmakers – but it was definitely of value this morning !
Another downside of oddschecker not updating, is that we have missed a small tip…
I didn’t think there was any pressure on the price – but when I checked on odds-comparison, it had dropped by almost 10 points !
You therefore need to be looking out for another strong mention in the write up !
Which, without further ado, I will now begin…
Ascot
The opening contest looks a complete nightmare and I would recommend the use of a pin to help you find the winner, if you really want to play in it…
The second race on the card is far more interesting – and this is the one where the ‘missing’ tip runs…
In truth, it was going to be quite a speculative tip – but at 25/1, I thought Orzare might reward a small investment…
He showed pretty decent form 18 months ago, when finishing third to Smad Place in a good class handicap hurdle over this course.
He ran 3 more times that season but then clearly had a problem as he wasn’t seen again until 10 days ago at Fontwell.
He ran in a very hot novice chase that day – and was a 50/1 shot. However, he was still in with a chance and moving well, when brought down at the fourth last.
Like I say, there is a fair bit of speculation involved, but the suggestion that day was that he is still capable of performing at a level in the 130s – so as he is officially rated 122, that would make him well handicapped !
Unfortunately, it is not quite as simple as that, as there are some decent horses in today’s race.
Obviously, the favourite, Up to Something sets a good standard, but also Lyvius, Persian Snow and Thunderstorm, could all turn out to be decent animals.
The bet on Orzare was purely about the price.
At 25/1 he was worth a tiny risk – and 16/1, I wasn’t so convinced…
2:10
Next up, the first tips of the day…
I’m actually quite prepared to take on at least half the field in this race – which is always a good place to start.
I respect both Fairy Rath and Greywell Boy – but their form line has been picked up by just about everyone and as a consequence, there is no margin in their prices (particularly as both are making their seasonal debuts today).
Of more interest at bigger prices, at Avoca Promise and Notarfbad.
Both horses were relatively impressive winners on their seasonal debut and whilst both have risen in the weights as a consequence, I believe they could have more to offer…
It is a tight call on which one I favour, but I think I have a slight preference for Avoca Promise (assuming the ground is on the soft side).
I was very taken by his victory at Huntingdon, where I thought he beat a strong field.
He has been raised 7lb for the win and is dropping back half a mile in trip today. However, it was his first run for Tom Symonds and he’d always threatened to be a decent horse, so if Symonds has found the key to him, the rise in the weights should not be insurmountable…
Notarfbad is also a talented performer who seems finally to be getting his act together.
He also won nicely on his seasonal debut and has been raised 6lb for that win.
He drifted significantly in the market that day, so it is not unreasonable to think he might improve for the run.
The jockey booking of the excellent Noel Fehily (in my opinion, just about the best jockey riding at the moment) is huge positive.
0.5pt win Avoca Promise 11/1
0.25pt win Notarfbad 14/1
The handicap hurdle at 2:45 is a very interesting race – but one where I struggled to find an angle…
I think the market will find the winner – which I expect to be well backed.
I reckon the winner is likely to be one of the current top 6 in the betting (as they all have potential to be better than they have shown), but I wouldn’t like to nominate which one.
3:20
This is a real cracker of a race and one which I’m sure will throw up many winners for the rest of the season…
As with the race at Wetherby yesterday, victory for pretty much any member of the field wouldn’t come as a complete surprise.
That said, I do feel that some of the runners are unlikely to be at their peak today – the tricky bit is working out which ones !
My personal short list would consist of Bless the Wings, Wyck Hill, Quinz and Merry King – with the state of the ground a big factor in me deciding which one to plump for…
On decent ground, I would favour Bless the Wings (who might otherwise have stamina issues) and Quinz; but if the ground is deep, Wyck Hill and Merry King would be the choices…
Of course we won’t know the actual state of the ground until the first couple of races have been run – but there has been lots of rain around lately and I struggle to see how it won’t be at least on the slow side.
Therefore, my preferences are Wyck Hill and Merry King – and with the latter being the bigger price (last night anyway !) and with more potential for improvement, I plumped for him !
I can see arguments for many of the others – if they are tuned up – so all in all it looks to be a race to savour.
0.5pt win Merry King 10/1
Wetherby
The high light of the Wetherby card is obviously the re-appearance of Long Run in the Charlie Hall chase…
The ground has come right for him and he is likely to take a lot of beating.
That said, he never looks unbeatable and it wouldn’t be the greatest shock in the world to see him turned over.
If the rain had stayed away, I could have been quite sweet on Benefficient, whom I think is underrated.
However, he has a preference for decent ground – and a question mark over the trip.
AP could work his magic on him – but on balance, I expect him to fade late on…
Long Run could well be the one to take advantage if he does – though I would also give Cape Tribulation and Harry Topper, decent chances.
On balance, Cape Tribulation would probably be the shout at the prices – if forced to play in the race.
However, I am not being forced – so he can just be a mention instead J
Earlier on the card, I thought Lunique looked of interest – particualrly with the Alan King stable in such good form.
However, it looks a competitive race and 7/2 is hardly a stand out price.
Just another mention, I’m afraid…
There is one tip at Wetherby however – and funnily enough, it was just a mention last night – but then the favourite for the race defected and everything took on a different look…
3:00
Purely on official ratings, Captain Sunshine hasn’t got much of a chance in this – but I am hopeful that will prove not to be the case.
He is clearly a quirky character (as TVB subscribers from last season know to their cost !) – but he also has talent.
The suspicion is that he needs things his own way – and he is more likely to get that in small field…
He also needs a decent pace – but Across the Bay should provide that (and could himself be a danger if he is given too much rope up front).
The thing is, with At Fishers Cross out of the equation, the race looks very winnable.
Tidal Bay is quite a short priced favourite and for all his ability, he also has a fair bit of temperament – and will be 13 in just over a months time.
He can certainly win – but at 7/4, he has to be opposed…
Medinas was very progressive last season, but whether he will be at this best first time out – and whether he will actually prove to be a graded performer – remain to be seen.
Trustan Times was at his best first time out last season – but again, he’s yet to fully convince that he is graded level.
In short, there are question marks everywhere you look – and in those circumstances, as I said yesterday, it often pays to look at the outsiders.
Captain Sunshine has plenty of talent – and a fitness edge. At 14/1 he is worth a small play to cause a bit of an upset…
0.25pt win Captain Sunshine 14/1
Down Royal
The highlight of the card is the JNWine Champon chase- and what a race is promises to be…
I’m a massive fan of Sizing Europe. He typifies everything that I love about this game.
He a gorgeous looking horse, who can travel and jump. At his best, he is pure class…
However, the reality is, he is now a little past his best – and 3 miles on rain softened ground is not his cup of tea.
I’m sure he will run a big race – but something will collar him close home…
The question is what…
On decent ground, First Lieutenant would be the shout – but if the ground is riding slow (and I suspect it will be), he too, is vulnerable…
I’m not a fan of Kauto Stone and Mount Benbulben still has a lot to prove (including his fitness).
That therefore leaves the 3 outsiders in the field !
Choosing between them is not an easy task – but if forced to, I would maybe take a chance on Prince De Beauchene, who may be capable of causing an upset…
3:05
However he gets on in the big race, I’m hoping that Ruby Walsh will come good in this contest…
I watch a lot of Irish racing (you really don’t want to know how much !) and I honestly can’t recall Ruby Walsh every getting on a Noel Meade trained horse before (though I may be wrong !).
I’ve no idea why it has come about – but to say it catches the eye, is a bit of an under-statement…
Of course, that in itself wouldn’t be enough to cause me to tip the horse – and thankfully there is a lot more to his case that just the man on top…
Texas Jack was a very decent novice chaser last season, when he placed in 3 grade 1 chases and won a grade 2 chase.
His form really does stand up to the closest scrutiny – and includes 2 decisions over subsequent RSA chase winner, Lord Windermere.
Today’s trip and ground will also be fine for him – so the biggest question marks surround his fitness – and the opposition.
We will have to take his fitness on trust – but it hasn’t been an issue in previous seasons – and whilst the opposition is of a decent quality, there is nothing that really jumps out at me..
In short, Texas Jack looks like a very good bet !!
0.5pt win Texas Jack 6/1
Ayr
I didn’t spend too much time on the Ayr card (there are only so many hours in a day !) – but I did look at the 3:10 race…
The horse that initially took my eye was Trucking Along. He was a disappointing favourite at Wetherby last time out but I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounced back to form this afternoon.
That said, todays 2 mile trip really doesn’t look far enough for him, so I would have to pass him over.
Instead, I would opt for Saphir River.
He cost a kings ransom a few year aback – but has generally been disappointing.
However, he won a decent novice chase on his seasonal debut last year, so maybe first time out is the time to catch him.
Trip and ground look fine – and the price is OK.
A solid Mention IMO :;)
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!
TVB.
Tips
Asc 2:10 Avoca Promise 11/1
Asc 2:10 Notarfbad 14/1
Asc 3:20 Merry King 10/1
Weth 3:00 Captain Sunshine 14/1
DR 3:05 Texas Jack 6/1
Mentions
Asc 1:35 Orzare
Asc 3:20 Bless the Wings (if the ground is good)
Weth 1:50 Lunique
Weth 3:35 Cape Tribulation
DR 2:30 Prince De Beauchene
Ayr 3:10 Saphir River
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