Daily write-up - Nov 20th

Three meetings today: Warwick and Hexham in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland…

It was really nice to get plenty of comments on the blog yesterday…

I guess people will always feel more comfortable commenting after a winner – though I’m happy to reply to any comments, at any time, on (almost !) any subject…

In fact, sometimes the comments made when things aren’t going so well, can be the most useful…

Neil’s questions about progressive/regressive animals being a recent case in point.

Who knows, without his prompting, we might have been on Petitefour rather than Boyfromnowhere on Sunday !!

I did pick up a slight undertone, from one or two of yesterdays comments (and I include the ones emailed to me), that people were relieved to see things back on a firmer footing after a rocky start to the season (Rowan effectively said similar in his blog)…

Whilst I acknowledge that the season could have got off to a better start, I have few concerns over the quality of any of the tips that I have issued so far…

I think it is very important to differentiate between the quality of the tip and the result of the race.

I know that is not always easy to do, which is why I have a variety of metrics that I use to measure my ‘performance’.

Prior to yesterday, all of those metrics were telling me that things were bang on target: the right percentage of horses have been finishing in the first 4: most of the selections have been well backed; and if you’d layed off IR just above 2, you would have been doing just fine…

Ofcourse, the measure that counts most is the official P&L – that is the one which ultimately is likely to determine whether the TVB ship floats or sinks – and it wasn’t looking brilliant.

However, of all the measures it is the one most impacted by luck – and I think you will all agree that luck hasn’t smiled on us that much over the first couple of weeks…

Anyway, maybe luck has now decided to back off and give us an easy time (I’m sure my resilience must unnerve it J ).

I’ve ended up with 2 tips today: a ‘proper’ one (even if a bit on the weak side) and a ‘saver’…

I think both have got fair chances – even if there are some doubts in my mind.

Hopefully, at least one of them will help keep the official P&L moving in the right direction…

Hexham

2:10

I tipped The Big Freeze last season  - on the day that he finished second at Musselburgh. He looked all over the winner that day (and traded at 1.05 in running, if memory serves), but he got nailed close home..

He made amends for that defeat with a gritty victory next time out, in heavy ground at Exeter and followed that up with a gutsy run behind the brilliant (sic) Plein Pouvoir at Cheltenham, also on very heavy ground…

The Big Freeze shouldn’t have an issue with today’s underfoot conditions then…

It is also difficult to argue that he’s not well handicapped.

He gets to run off a mark 1lb lower than his mark for the Exeter victory – and a full 8lb lower than for his Cheltenham run.

What’s more, it is bit difficult to understand why he has fallen so far in the handicap – the handicapper was obviously in a generous mood when assessing his performances !

The big question with The Big Freeze, is whether he will get today’s trip of 4 miles –particularly in heavy ground – and ofcourse, we wont know the answer to that until the race is over.
However, a staying on 2^nd behind Sulpius over 3m2f in the soft last January, gives me a deal of hope that it won’t be an issue.

If that is the case, then I think he has to go close.

A nice pipe opener at Cheltenham October meeting, should have blown away the cobwebs – and I really can’t believe that Tim Vaughan would drive him the best part of 300 miles simply for a day out.

The biggest concern is probably the presence of the favourite, Merlins Dandy.

He is a young, progressive chaser and the case for him is there for all to see – but 6/4 is an incredibly short price. 4 miles on heavy ground on only the fifth race of his life – I’d almost want that price on him completing the course !

Of course if he does complete the course – and continues on his upward curve – he is the most likely winner.

However, at the prices I am more than happy to take risk on The Big Freeze…

0.5pt win The Big Freeze 8/1

Fairyhouse

2:45

Strong mention or saver tip – that is the question…?

It’s a dilemma I face, quite literally, every day.

My intention for this season, was to tip more horses, so more of the ‘strong mentions’ should really have been tips.
However, that hasn’t happened as much as it should have..

Already we have payed the price with the likes of Hartside, Rockchasebullet, Kings Apollo and Creepy (and they are just 4 off the top of my head).

However, Milosam, Alvarado and Boyfromnowhere have redressed that imbalance a little in the last week or so – and hopefully Getoutwhenyoucan will follow in their footsteps today.

Obviously if he does, I’ll be a little initiated that I didn’t stake him more aggressively – but I can cope with being annoyed by undertaking better than I can cope with not staking at all !

If Getoutwhenyoucan had been priced up in double figures, then he would have been a 0.5pt bet.

8/1 was my borderline price – and as that was achievable, he became a borderline tip.

In truth, I wasn’t too surprised to see him a little shorter in the betting than I had hoped, the fact that he is owned by JP McManus, was always likely to see to that !

Anyway, the case for him, is very similar to the case for Foritsa yesterday…

I watched him last time out and was convinced, rounding the home turn that he was going to win.

He didn’t  - he seemed to blow up a little  - and eventually came home in fourth place (though well clear of the fifth horse).

Unlike Foritsa, I don’t envisage him stripping a lot fitter today (he is trained by Christy Roach, who does have the facilities at home to get them fit), however he is both young and inexperienced (today will only be his sixth run) so I suspect there is a deal more improvement in him.

I can also see some serious dangers in todays race: non more so that favourite Not for Changing, who was given an uncharacteristically poor ride by Davy Russell last time out. I would also respect the chances of Volt Sun, whilst Pencilhimin is very interesting, debuting for a new stable…

On balance then, it is difficult to be overly confident, but I would expect Getoutwehnyoucan to run a decent race – and if the others don’t perform to their best, that might just be good enough to land the prize.

0.25pt win Getoutwhenyoucan 8/1

It will be great to see Paul Carberry back in action today after 6 months out with a shoulder injury (I can almost see the smile on the face of Monbeg Dude from here !). The game needs character like him…

Hopefully he will return with a winner, in the shape of Ally Cascade, who runs for Noel Meade in the opener on the card.

Warwick

There’s not a lot to get your teeth into from a punting perspective at Warwick (the same is true at the two other venues – even though I’ve found a couple of tips).

In the opener, Don Pooleoni could well go one better than he did last week, when he was runner up at Taunton. However, in a 14 runner field, a best price of 3/1 holds little appeal…

It’s a similar story in the next race on the card, where Rockchasebullet will be fancied by many to follow up his last time out victory over this course and distance.

He’s been raised 11lb for that win however – and, at odds of 3/1, I couldn’t consider getting involved.

If I was to back one in the race, it would probably be No Duffer, who ran a fair race on his seasonal debut and may be able to score at the first time of asking over the bigger obstacles…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Hex 2:10 The Big Freeze 8/1

Fairy 2:45 Getoutwhenyoucan 8/1

Mentions

War 12:50 Don Pooleoni (P)

War 1:20 No Duffer (S)

Fairy 2:45 Not for Changing (P)