If, at any point this season, everything comes together,
I think there is a chance we could make some serious money…
As you all know (!) I like to de-emphasise the importance
of the tips making a profit as I feel I should be judged on my overall output
(tips, write-up, mentions etc.).
However, the tips represent the sharp edge – and I do
find making a profit from tipping, a fascinating challenge…
To my mind there are 3 things that need to fall right: I
need to be putting up the right horses; I need to be staking them correctly –
and we need our faith share of luck…
I’ve lost count of the number of times this month where
I’ve not put up the right horse – though I feel that has been improving in that
area lately; whilst we are more than familiar with the wrong side of luck.
However, over the past couple of days, it’s the staking I’ve managed to mess
up…
In truth, that is the least important component – at
least in the short term – though ultimately, it could end up costing us
dear…
Understaking Top Dancer on Thursday was forgivable, in
the circumstances – but understaking Tatenen today wasn’t…
I ran shy of putting half a point on him, simply because
he was too big a price ! How crazy is that ?! I didn’t stake him properly
because I didn’t want to make us too much money… What a charitable chap I
am…!!
If you read the write-up, it’s blatantly clear which
horse I fancied in the race. Ruben Cotter and Opera Og were just the back ups –
and yet what do I do…?
Doh !!
Anyway, I guess we made a decent return on the race, so I
probably shouldn’t give myself too much grief – but all the same…
Suffice to say, Tatenen absolutely bolted up (much as I
thought he might !).
To be honest, he could/should have won by even further.
His jockey took up a very poor position at the off – and then came off worse in
a barging match round the home turn…
My suspicion was that he might have 20lb in hand of his
mark – and I don’t think I was far off !!
In fairness to Ruben Cotter, he also ran a perfectly respectable race to finish third – whilst Opera Og got no further than the first fence (which maybe wasn’t a bad thing – we wouldn’t have wanted him spoiling the party !).
In fairness to Ruben Cotter, he also ran a perfectly respectable race to finish third – whilst Opera Og got no further than the first fence (which maybe wasn’t a bad thing – we wouldn’t have wanted him spoiling the party !).
Things didn’t go quite so well in the Hennessy – though
all 3 tips did run with credit…
Highland Lodge led the field to the fourth last – but
then cried enough.
He eventually finished an honourable fourth, one place in
front on the staying on Merry King.
Loch Ba also ran with credit – but he didn’t get home.
Loch Ba also ran with credit – but he didn’t get home.
The trip looked to be the issue – but maybe he just isn’t
up to that class…
Earlier on the Newbury card, Un Bon P'tit Gars proved no
match for Valdez – but he did at least get his revenge on Flaming Charmer;
whilst neither Punjabi nor The Bear trap were sighted in the handicap
hurdle…
Celestial Halo took advantage of a shocking blunder by At
Fishers Cross a the second last hurdle; whilst Elenika never really featured in
the final race on the card…
Over at Newcastle, My Tent or Yours was a smooth winner
of the Fighting Fifth hurdle. It will take a good one to beat him in the
Champion.
Meanwhile, Hey Big Spender was a tenacious winner of the
Rehearsal chase – what an admirable horse he is…
Over at Towcester, Pod was pulled up in the novice
handicap chase, after running no sort of a race…
That was a massive disappointment – and one I just
couldn’t have foreseen…
I got very close to put him up this morning – very close
indeed. The only reason I didn’t was because he faced some very unexposed rivals
– and was a short price…
Interestingly, it was the 2 unexposed rivals that I high
lighted this morning – Classic Case and Endofdiscussion, who fought out the
finish with the former getting the verdict…
What is really interesting is that Classic Case was 12/1
last night (and probably first thing this morning) – but was backed down to 3/1
at the off…
That is always the issue with low grade races such as
this – you can never be completely sure of what you are taking on…
Ofcourse, that doesn’t explain the poor run of Pod – but
even if he had run up to form, he might have found the winner a bit too good on
the day…
Unlike Pod, Kings Apollo ran just as expected – and when
I say just as I expected, I mean precisely as I expected !
I wasn’t prepared to tip him this morning at 2/1 – but
suggested that he might be worth backing in running, half a mile from home at a
better price…
Well, coming into the stright, I took 7/1 in running on
him –and I’ll be disappointed if I was the only one who did !!
Needless to say, he powered up the Towcester hill and won like the good thing I always thought he was ;)
Needless to say, he powered up the Towcester hill and won like the good thing I always thought he was ;)
At Fairyhouse, Gentleman Duke did little to suggest he is
any more than fairly handicapped in the handicap chase.
Sizing Gold was a non runner in the novice chase, which
left the way open for Foxrock to battle his way to victory…
I doubt he will have impressed many – but he impressed me
!
The horse clearly needs a trip and seemed to win despite
everything going wrong.
I am sure we will be hearing a lot more of him – maybe
the Irish National, in the spring..?
Finally, Vaxalco was yet gain unlucky not to collect –
getting nailed close home…
Maybe he’ll have more luck next time…
So that brings to an end an unbelievably eventful
November…
I don’t mean for these months to be such roller-coasters
– that’s just he way it turns out…
At the start of the day, I was resigned to finishing the
month with a small loss – but Tatenen sorted that out J
As always, I will issue a monthly report in the next day
or so – and go into a little more detail on how I think things went…
Aside from that, it’s on to tomorrow, the first day of
December – with the slate set back to zero…
TVB.
