Daily write-up - Nov 9th

It’s an interesting days racing, with 4 NH meetings at Wincanton, Sandown and Kelso in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

The prospect of rain – and going changes – has caused me to be very cautious.

I’m not 100% confident in the going reports issued this morning – and there is a strong chance of rain at both Wincanton and Sandown, so it really is a question of treading carefully…

Opening up the tipping window briefly yesterday evening, didn’t seem to cause any issues.

Of course, the horse I tipped, was under no price pressure, so that helped – but it is certainly something I would be prepared to try again (maybe next Thursday, for the first day of Cheltenhams Open meeting).

Anyway, despite the weather/ground concerns, I’ve still managed to find a few tips for us today.

Most of them are not ground reliant – though I have taken a bit of a risk at Sandown where I am hoping for incessant rain (apologies if you happen to be going to the meeting !).

So, without further ado, on to the rationale for the tips – along with a few comments on some of the other races…

Wincanton

2:40

When I looked at this race earlier in the week, my eye was drawn to one horse in particular, Standing Ovation…

He was a very game winner of a race over course and distance, a fortnight ago, showing much improved form in the process.

Now he’s got his act together, I could see him really progressing over fences but there is one big issue with him – he seems to have a strong preference for good ground.

That didn’t seem an issue earlier in the week – and even this morning, the ground is described as good to soft – but with the chance of significant rain, I didn’t feel I could take the chance at relatively cramped odds in a very competitive race.

If the rain doesn’t materialise, I will be covering myself with a saver on him…

Instead, I have plumped for a horse who hasn’t got any significant ground preference and who caught my eye last time out, at Chepstow - Alvarado.

That was the race won by Al Co and Alvarado travelled very sweetly but ultimately just couldn’t quicken close home.

Maybe that wasn’t too surprising, as it was his first run for nearly 6 months. I would expect him to come on for that and if he does, he should go close off a mark just 1 pound higher than the mark which he won from at Wetherby last October.

He certainly seems to represent a bit of value when compared to Court By Surprise.

That one finished a couple of lengths in front of him at Chepstow, but looked primed for a big run that day and is a pound worse off with Alvarado today.

I would struggle to chose between them – but Alvarado was available at almost 3 times the price last night.

Others I could see going well are Poungach (if he can jump more slickly); Ballyalia Man and De La Bech – but there is little margin in any of their prices.

0.25pt EW Alvarado 20/1

2:05

I’m going out on a limb a little bit with this one – but I think Ruler of All is worth a very small play…

He caught my eye last time out at Aintree. In fairness, he might simply have caught my eye because his apprentice jockey has an ‘unusual’ style – but all the same…

He seemed to be travelling nicely in behind the leaders – and although he wasn’t quite able to close the gap, he did run on strongly at the end of the race.

That was his first run for a few months, so there is always the possibility that he needed it.

In truth, Ruler of All isn’t massively well handicapped – and todays race does represent step up in grade for him.

However, I’m struggling to muster a lot of enthusiasm for his rivals.

The market is headed by Far West, who was runner up in last years Triumph hurdle (albeit at a very respectful distance behind Our Connor).

He could well progress this season but 9/4 looks plenty short enough to me…

Of the market leaders, Cotton Mill is probably the one who interests me most. He finished runner up to My Tent or Yours on his seasonal debut in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last February.

If he is in the same form today, he will take the beating,

Karinga Dancer has been very progressive this autumn – but his handicap mark has risen accordingly; whilst Melodic Rendezvous was a very good novice hurdler last season, but has performed best in the heavy and his stable isn’t currently in the best of form.

There is little doubt that Ruler of All is a specualtive selection – but at a very big price I am prepared to take a small risk in a race where there are question marks over all of the main protagonists.

0.25pt win Ruler of All 33/1

3:15

This looks a very open contest, but I think that Fox Appeal represents a bit of value at the morning prices…

There was only 3lb between all 4 runners on hurdles rating, so in receipt of 6lb from the top two, Fox Appeal and Mister Eckhart immediately look quite interesting…

Fox Appeal looks the more interesting of the pair, as he has already had an outing this season. That was his first ever run over fences and he travelled and jumped well until just giving best to Black Thunder close home.

If he has come of for that run (and he improved for his seasonal debut last year) then I think he is the one to beat in this.

He is still a lightly raced horse (this will only be his 13^th career run), who has progressed nicely throughout this career. His easy defeat of the very progressive Medinas last season, now looks like a particularly strong piece of form

Of course the same can be said for his 3 rivals today – but at the end of the day, it comes down to value – and Fox Appeal definitely offers that today.

0.5pt win Fox Appeal 11/2

In the opener on the card, I’m intrigued to see Noel Fehily riding Whispering Bob for his governor Charlie Longsdon, when Longsdon has a couple of well fancied horses running in the big handicap chases at Sandown…

Presumably Fehily is at Wincanton to partner Karinga Dancer and Court By Surprise – but all the same…

If nothing else, it is hardly a ringing endorsement for the chances of the Sandown runners !!

In the 12:55 it is great to see Plein Pouvoir back on the course.

As regularly readers will know, I am a huge fan of the horse. He’s a little one paced (!) – but I just love the way he gets over the fences with the same amount of effort that others expend to get over hurdles !

Unless there is torrential rain today, I doubt he will be quick enough to win – but if the heavens were to open…

The mares hurdle at 1:30 looks fiercely competitive…

I could have been interested in Utopie Des Bordes, Mickie and Tara Rose, to name just 3.

However, it wouldn’t surprise me massively if non of those 3 even managed to place.

A watching brief is therefore advised…

Sandown

3:40

I must admit that I’ve taken a bit of a flyer here…

The ground at Sandown this morning, was officially described as heavy (with soft patches) on the hurdles course and soft (with good to soft) patches on the chase course.

However, up to 5mm of rain is forecast to hit the course from mid morning to mid afternoon.

If that materialises, it is difficult to see how the ground on the chase course won’t be riding pretty heavy as well…

If that is the case, then 2 horses in the 3:40 race will stand out: Gorgehous Lliege and Lough Coi.

Gorgehous Lliege showed very progressive form in the depths of last winter, before struggling a but when the weather started to improve.

He won twice in the mud at Towcester, so one thing is for sure, he’s likely to get home today, whatever the conditions !

It is true that he was operating at a lower level last season – but he is only 7 and did seem progressive so a step up in class will hopefully not prove beyond him.

Lough Coi ran very well to chase home Forest Walker at Uttoxeter. Obviously that one disappointed next time out but that shouldn’t detract too much from the performance of Lough Coi.

His Uttoxeter run was a big step up from his seasonal debut – and he is also proven in very heavy conditions.

Whilst it is good to have a couple of horses on side who will handle heavy ground (assuming that is what they get), the real attraction for betting in this race is because the 3 favourites in the market are all likely to be inconvenienced by such going.

All 3 have shown a marked preference for good ground – so I could foresee a big shift in the betting if the rains do come.

Goegehous Lleige and Lough Coi have also both only got featherweight s to carry –which will be a further bonus if the ground does get very soft.

Ofcouse, there is a chance that if the ground gets really bad, they some/all of the favourites will be withdrawn ! – but we’ll ignore that possibility for the time being !!    

0.5pt win Gorghous Lleige 15/2

0.25pt win Lough Coi 14/1

If the ground was on the good side, I would be very interested in Hectors Choice in the 2:30 race…

He was a very decent horse a couple of seasons ago – but didn’t perform to the same level last season.

As a result his handicap mark has been dropped significantly and he gets to start this campaign from a mark a stone lower than last season.

He’s shown in the past that he can run well when fresh – but he does have a preference for decent ground…

If the ground is on the soft side, then Mart Lane would seem to offer good value at a double figure price.

Formerly trained in Ireland, he made a wining debut for Doctor Newland in a decent race at Stratford. He’s been raised 7lb for that – but there could well be more to come form him…

In the 1:20 race it will be fascinating to watch Grandouet make his chasing debut.

He was a top class 2 mile hurdler and should have too much class if he gets round safely.

That has to be a worry however, he tipped up 3 times over hurdles, and will need to give his fences a little more respect. If he does that, he could go to the very top in the novice ranks this season.

Kelso

2:15

I think that Garleton is potentially my best tip of the day…

He has a very good chance on the form book – and a profile that means he is unlikely to be over-bet (or more accurately, he was unlikely to be under priced when we wanted to get on !!).

The main reason for his lack of mass appeal , is that he will be 13 in the new year – and his handicap mark suggests he is regressing…

Having watched his last run however, I’m a bit surprised that the handicapper saw fit to drop him 6lb.

He ran a perfectly creditable race behind Knockara Beau – bearing in mind it was his first outing for 4 months. I would hope that run had brought him on…

Certainly, if he is in the same form as he was in March, when he was beaten just a head by Always Right (with subsequent Grand National Winner, Auroras Encore well behind) he will take the world of beating today, off a mark a full 10 lb lower…

The only reason I’ve not staked him bigger today is because I can see a couple of potentially big dangers in the race.

Both Sa Suffit and Blenheim Brook are handicapped to go very close today - and at their best would represent formidable opponents.

However, Sa Suffit hasn’t run for almost 2 years – so a lot has to be taken on trust with him; whilst Blenheim brook has been pulled up on his 2 most recent outings, so also comes with significant risks attached.

On balance, then Garleton is the safest choice.

0.5pt win Garleton 13/2

In the 2:50 race,. Mr Moonshine was quite tempting off a mark 5lb lower than the one he ran so well off in the Old Roan Chase.

Again, I struggle to see why he was dropped so much on the back of what appeared to be a promising seasonal debut.
There are 2 issued with him however: the price and the presences of the potentially very talented Upsilon Bleu.

Consequently, a watching race…

Naas

2:00

I do love my novice chases. I particularly love my Irish novice chases – and this is a very good one..

Victory for any of the top half dozen in the betting wouldn’t come as a major surprise – that said, I do think Operating is the one to beat…

He was a decent, progressive novice chaser last season  - and also looked like he would be a better novice chaser this campaign.

He actually had a first run over fences at Punchestown in May, when he finished third to the potentially top class Felix Younger.

He was then put away and reappeared at the end of last month in a high class novice chase won by Morning Assembly.

Operating travelled very nicely that day and has just taken up the running when he stepped at the fifth last fence and departed company with Barry Geraghty.

It’s impossible to know how he would have fared that day, but he still appeared to have plenty to give.

Provided that fall hasn’t knocked his confidence, I think he can go very close today…

Of his rivals, Road to Riches is certainly very interesting and he has the potential to make a decent chaser this season.

You Must know Me is a second season novice – but he ran some very good races last campaign and even ran in the Irish Grand National.

Foxrock is the other one that looks particularly interesting. He is relatively unexposed and has plenty of potential.

However Operating has plenty of potential himself - and has demonstrated a good level of ability. He also has a fitness advantage over his main rivals today, which I’m hoping may prove to be decisive.

0.5pt win Operating 13/2

In the opening race on the card, I thought long and hard about tipping Dylan Ross…

He has a good chance on the book and was in the process of running a very big race on his seasonal debut, when he fell at the second last.
However, the horse has quirks – and is not one you could ever totally rely on.

I suspect he will look like he’s going to win at some point this afternoon - but whether he goes through with his effort, is a different matter

Finally, in the 3:20 race, I could be interested in Summer Star.

He won a couple of race at Leopardstown last winter and has had a recent pipe opener on the flat at Galway.

Both of his wins at Leopardstown were characterised by him coming with a swooping late run, having looked to have no chance on the home turn.

My tactics today would therefore be to back him in running when he hits 50 on the home turn – and then keep my fingers crossed that he again finds his finishing burst !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Winc 2:05 Ruler of All 33/1

Winc 2:40 Alvarado 20/1

Winc 3:15 Fox Appeal 11/2

Sand 3:40 Gorgehous Lliege 15/2

Sand 3:40 Lough Coi 14/1

Kels 2:15 Garleton 13/2

Naas 2:00 Operating 13/2

Mentions

Winc 12:20 Whispering Bob (S)

Winc 12:55 Plein Pouvoir (C)

Winc 2:40 Standing Ovation (C)

Sand 2:30 Hecotrs Choice (C)

Sand 2:30 Mart Lane (O)

Kelso 2:50 Mr Moonshine (O)

Naas 12:15 Dylan Ross (P)

Naas 3:10 Summer Star (S)