No joy again today – and the performance of the main tip,
Seedsman, was particularly disappointing…
It was so poor in fact, that it initially had me
completely baffled.
Obviously there is always a risk when a horse is jumping
a fence in public for the first time – but Seedsman actually jumped pretty well;
the weight of money behind him, also left little doubt that he was fit to do
himself justice. He was 5/1 when I tipped him – but went off at half that price
– and was solid in the market just before the off.
He was actually travelling so nicely at half way, that he
touched 2.5 IR on Betfair – but then it all went wrong…
He got passed in mid air jumping the fifth last fence -
and then just slowly faded, until he was eventually pulled up.
Thinking about it, the only possible explanation I could
come up with, was that he’d experienced a breathing problem. Thankfully, when I
subsequently read the race review in the Racing Post, this was confirmed by the
jockey…
Obviously it makes not a jot of difference to the outcome
– it’s not as if we get our money back in such circumstances – but at least I
was able to feel that my judgement possibly wasn’t as far out as it looked when
watching the race…!
The other tip in the race, Kilmacowen, also ran
disappointingly – though he didn’t jump with the fluency of Seedsman.
He managed to get round eventually, but I wonder how many
tries over the bigger obstacles, his connections will be prepared to give
him…
An hour later, Silver Roque made me rue – once again –
the early evening markets…
He was 8/1 last night – but no better than 4/1 this
morning, once the bookmakers cards had been marked.
With hindsight you can obviously argue that 4/1 was a
good price – but there were enough doubts and concerns this morning to stop me
getting involved at that price.
Hopefully one or two of your weren’t as cautious
!!
It was s similar story at Lingfield…
I felt that Richmond was too risky to justify tipping at
2/1 – but he went and dotted up, having been backed into 11/8
favouritism…
Again, this was always a possibility – but I was guessing
with him.
Those of you who want to read between the lines now have
clear mentions to operate with.
I will always struggle to tip a horse that is so short in
the betting, when we know relatively little about him – but if the markets speak
in their favour, it often pays to listen…
In the following race, Howards Legacy did nearly leaving
me ruing one that got away…
Unusually for a Venetia horse, he was weak in the betting
(presumably on account of his form figures !) – but I had a feeling he was a
fair bit better than he had been showing lately.
He cruised into contention round the home turn and looked
highly likely to win.
However, he came up against an improving, in form rival
in Toby Leron.
He will be unlucky to bump into such an opponent next
time – but I doubt he will be the same price he was today…
Over at Huntingdon, Just Lucky managed to bump into one
of Jonjos…
He ran a cracker to finish second to a horse who had
clearly got masses in hand. However, by finishing miles clear of the rest of the
field he is likely to be raised a few pounds by the handicapper.
Not so lucky then…
In the next on the card, Ballyhilty Bridge seemed not to
be able to handle the very soft ground and was pulled shortly after half way.
The run can probably be ignored…
The ground also seemed to account for the challenge of
Broadway Buffalo in the big hurdle – well less the ground, and more the jockeys
tactics in such tiring conditions.
Tom Scudamore decided to make every post the wining one
and probably just went too fast.
As a consequence Broadway Buffalo was a spent force from
3 hurdles out.
He is almost certainly better than he showed
today…
On to tomorrow then…
TVB.
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