Daily write-up - Nov 13th

There are two NH meetings this afternoon, at Bangor and Exeter – and for a mid-week, they are not bad quality at all…

You will have noticed a slight change in tact this morning, with me tipping a horse at 4/1 in a competitive 8 runner chase ! (and that’s ignoring the fact that it was 6/1 last night !).

If we’re going to survive, I think ‘the value bettor’ needs to become ‘the realistic bettor’. The margins that I used to look for simply aren’t there any more – I need to adapt or die – so I will try to adapt !!

What I will find difficult, is when a 4/1 shot that I’ve tipped is beaten (and it will happen occasionally !) .

I know that statistically, they should only win 1 in ever 5 races - but I will expect them all to hack up. Prepare yourself for some tough times ahead in the reviews !

The other slight change to my approach won’t have been so obvious to you…

I am conscious of the fact that I might be spreading myself too thinly, trying to all but cover every race at every meeting  !
Last night, I focused – quite intently – on the first 3 races on the Bangor card.

Obviously, I scanned the other races, to make sure there was nothing that really stuck out (and to establish which races to focus on) – but my energies were poured into 3 races.

I’ll still offer a few views on some of the other races – but bear in mind, that there is a fair chance I will have missed something…

So, without further ado, onto the big 3 races !!

Bangor

1:20

I managed to narrow this race down to 2 last night – with a potential danger lurking in the background !

The 2 in question, were Tullyraine and Winds and Waves – and I’ve split stakes between them this morning.

To a large extent, the way I split the stake was dictated by their price.

I don’t see that much between them, so at twice the price, Tullyraine had to be the bigger bet…

He is actually held on form by Wind and Waves from their last run.

That was in a novice handicap chase at Worcester, where Wind and Waves finished third and Tullyraine fourth.

Both finished really well that day, with Wind and Waves a particular eye catcher.

He’s been put up 5lb for the run, whereas Tullyraine has been left on the same mark.

At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair.

Both were also making their seasonal debuts – so can be expected to come on for the run. Also, todays trip and ground will hold no fear for either – in short they look solid bets.

Wind and Waves was a progressive novice hurdler last season, so might have the slightly greater scope for improvement.

However, to balance that, Tullyraine is unbeaten on his 2 previous course visits (admittedly over hurdles) with one of those an emphatic victory in a decent race, off the same mark that he gets to run to today.

I mentioned that there was also ‘a dark one’ in the field – and that is Ifyousayso. He has his first run for Tom George today – and has the form to make a mark off his current rating.

My issue with him is the trip (particularly on his seasonal debut). I’ll be watching him closely but hope that ultimately he doesn’t get home.

It s a shame that Diese Dynamo is a NR, as I was happy enough to take him on. The same can be said for the others in the race – so hopefully with a split stake across Tullyraine and Wind and Wave, we are sitting pretty !!

0.75pt win Tullyraine 6/1

0.25pt win Wind and Wave 7/2

1:50

I won’t bore you with what might have been with this race…

Suffice to say, Loch Ba was 6/1 last night and Our Mick 9/2 – nicely positioned for another win and saver bet – but ultimately those prices count for nothing…

What I had to do, was decide this morning if the prices available still represented any value.

I think they did – but it was a much more marginal call (hence the staking).

As you will have gathered, I struggled to split Loch Ba and Our Mick when I was looking at he race last night.

Unlike the previous race, their cases are quite different – but the end result was same  (ie. they appear to have similar chances).

The case for Loch Ba, is that he is a progressive chaser, who goes well fresh and whom I believe is a fair bit better than his current rating of 133…

On the back of a hugely impressive win at Newbury last season, he was actually raised to a mark of 137.

I thought he could still be very competitive off that rating and backed him for the 3m2 chase at the Cheltenham festival.

However, whether it was the big field or the end of the season, I don’t know – but that race was too much for him and he finished well beaten.
It was the same next time at Aintree, where although he finished fifth, he was never really in with a chance of wining.

As a result of those 2 runs however, his mark has dropped by 4lb. We know he goes well fresh – and that todays trip and ground are fine.  If he really does have the ability to be rated in the 140s (which is what I believe) he should go very close today…

Our Mick should also go very close today.

Unlike Loch Ba he has already shown himself capable of being competitive off his current mark (145). He also goes well fresh and should have no issue with trip or ground.

At a  similar price this morning I had to choose between the pair – and the fact that Loch Ba has the grater scope, just edged me in his direction.

I would have like to have a saver on Our Mick – but at the prices, I just didn’t see that as an option…

Of the others, Quartz De Thaix and Pete the Fete both have chances - but they are quite exposed and don’t have the scope of either Loch Ba or Our Mick.

Of the outsiders, I could give Golden Call a squeak – as I could Mountainous.

He is currently available at 20/1+ which strikes me as a bit of an insult.

At those odds, the old value bettor might have been half tempted to take a risk !!

In the opening chase on the cards, I was torn between Opera Og, Ballylifen and Morgans Bay.

That said, I couldn’t completely rule out Allerton or Hot Whiskey.

They all opened up around 5/1, so I decide to swerve the race !

Looking at the prices now, I think Morgans Bay is the interesting one.

I guess I could be a little concerned about a horse drifting on it’s seasonal debut (does it need the run ?) – but it was progressive last season and has the form to go close today.

Exeter

As I mentioned in the introduction, I didn’t spend too long on this meeting (so bear that in mind if you are considering have a bet on any of the mentions !)

In the handicap hurdle at 1:40, I’ll be a little surprised if Sandynow manages to maintain his record of going off a well backed favourite.

I think the return to hurdles will help him – but I can’t really see him getting involved today.

The interesting one is Twice Retuned, for in form Dan Skleton.

He ran a nice race on his seasonal debut and if he builds on that today, he will doubtless go close.

However, it is a trappy contest - and there is now little margin in his price…

Once again, I will be interested to se how Smad Place fares in the novice chase.

He didn’t overly impress me prior to his fall an Huntingdon the other day – and if the opposition was more credible,  I would consider taking him on today.

That’s not the case though – and if he jumps round, he should really win…

I did think there might be an angle in 3:10 race as I was quite keen on both Quaddick Lake and Chemistry Master

They were also both at reasonable prices – but most of the value has now dried up – and more importantly, I think the favourite, Horizontal Speed, could prove tough to beat…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Bang 1:20 Tullyraine 6/1

Bang 1:20 Winds and Wave 7/2

Bang 1:50 Loch Ba 4/1

Mentions

Bang 12:50 Morgan Bay (S)

Bang 1:50 Our Mick (P) Mountainous (S)

Exe 1:40 Twice Returned (P)

Exe 3:10 Quaddick Lake (O) and Chemistry Master (O