Daily write-up - Nov 24th

There are 3 meetings this afternoon: Exeter and Towcester in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland…

I managed to miss a trick yesterday, with the Troytown chase…

I was keen to get my tips out before Tom Segal (Pricewise) and as a consequence, targeted yesterday afternoon…

However, only 4 bookmakers had priced up prior to 5:00 so tipping wasn’t an option.

I therefore decided to leave it until this morning – and low and behold, Tom ends up tipping one of ‘my’ horses – and the price crashes…

Hopefully some of you managed to get 16/1 on Pass the Hat (or 14/1) when it bounced back out again – if it is successful, I will settle at a fair price for the P&L…

I do think there is some mileage in opening the tipping window the day before, for these bigger races – the question is, what time…?

My feeling at the moment is that we should drop back an hour, to 6:00-7:00.

This should mean that all the bookmakers have priced up – but it will also beat the time when the Racing Post in made available online (which I think is 8:00).

We can maybe try out the new window at  this weeks Hennessey meeting….

Anyway, I’ve ended up with tips in 2 races today - though I did consider tipping in 3 others…

If I’m honest, I also considered giving the whole day a miss ! – but I know that historically Sunday is my best day tipping – and I also know that I tend to bounced back after a poor day (like yesterday).

I’ve therefore tipped in the 2 races that I feel strongest about – but today is probably a day when you want to pay particular attention to the mentions (as there must be a good chance of sods law coming into play !!).

On to the rationale for the days tips then – plus a few words on the mentions…

Navan

2:35

There are a hand full of chases run in Ireland through the winter months, where the winner picks up a serious amount of money - and the Troytown is one of them…

A 60,000 Euro first prize is worth waiting for – when you consider that horses with similar marks will be running in England today in the hope of picking up little more than a tenth of that…

Because these races are so valuable, they encourage connections to target them. Horses who have lots of ability are ‘discouraged’ from showing that ability by being run in the wrong races: over the wrong trips – or over the wrong obstacles…

In theory, that could make solving them tricky – but in reality, you can adopt quite a formulaic approach.

Tom Segal is aware of this, which is why he and I tend to go for the same horses in these kind of races…

Basically, you are looking for unexposed horses (so generally young); in the bottom half of the handicap who have either been running over shorter trips; over hurdles; or not running very much at all !

If you look at today’s race, that leaves you with a short list of around half a dozen…

Goonyella, Mad Brian, Tom Horn, Carrig Millie, Please Talk, Pass the Hat and Living Next Door.

I’ll be surprised in the winner doesn’t come from that list…

That is almost certainly the same short list that Tom will have had – it‘s then just a question of picking a couple from it and keeping your fingers crossed !!

In my opinion, it is better to go for horses that have not contested these kind of races before – so that eliminates a couple…

Then it just comes down to which ones you like the look of most !
The two I favour are Pass the Hat and Living next Door.

The former is probably a little more exposed than ideal – though he is stepping up in trip today and is only 6 years old…

He has also shown good form in his last 2 outings: wining a novice chase at Limerick and running very well in a handicap chase at Naas.

At 16/1 (if you got the price !) he is very good value…

Living Next Door is a little riskier on a couple of counts..

Firstly he is 2lb out of the handicap – and secondly, he is trained by Tony Martin !

Still, if Tony Martin is going to be preserving one, it will be a for a race like this, so this is probably the best time to be with him !

Living Next Door had a go at jumping fences in his early days – but without much success…

He then found his form over hurdles and after wining over the smaller obstacles, did the same over the bigger ones at Limerick, last May.

He only won by half a length that day – but had plenty more than that in hand.
I suspect that was the time that Tony Martin realised he had something to go to war with (and a handicap mark that needing protecting !)…

Next time out, he disappointed over hurdles – and then wasn’t seen again until Galway at the end of last month.

Coming round the home turn, Living Next Door was still cruising – but he didn’t find much up the run in and could only finish fourth.

Maybe that was as good as he is – but I somehow doubt it.

His jockey remained pretty motionless that day – I doubt that will be the case this afternoon !

Just a quick mention for my old friend Cootamundra…

In a way, I would love him to win this race – but in a way, I would also hate it (as I’m not tipping him !)

If he had run in it last season off a mark of 125, I would have been very keen on him – but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then…

If I’m honest, I think he has missed his chance. He wasn’t campaigned effectively last season (his connections need to take a leaf out of Tony Martins book !) and now they have an aging horse with a lot of miles on the clock…

I expect him to travel well (and I will back him to lay back in running) – but when the going gets tough - I suspect he will back out…

0.5pt win Pass the Hat 16/1

0.5pt win Living next Door 12/1

The first of todays strong mentions runs in the following race on the card, at 2:55…
Skibabe really caught my eye last time at Clonmel, when finishing third behind a very well handicapped rival.

He travelled really well that day, but didn’t quite get home.

If he was running over a furlong less today, I would be tempted.

I might also be tempted if he was a slightly bigger price, as 10/1 in a 17 runner field isn’t exactly generous (when plenty have a chance).

I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from backing him - and I would expect him to run well – but I just don’t see a lot of margin in the price…

Exeter

2:35

I actually thought about this tip for quite a while as well – but I’ve decided to give Barlow one last chance…

He’s a horse I’ve always liked – and one that has threatened to land a decent prize - but he keeps on disappointing…

His best run last season, was probably when he was nailed close home at Sandown by Goring One.

He travelled like an animal much better than his mark that day but just couldn’t get up the Sandown hill…

He ran off a mark of 123 that day – and was subsequently raised to a mark of 129.

On the back of a few disappointing runs, he is back to 121 today…

He disappointed on his seasonal debut at Plumpton, but being held up over 2m4f on soft ground, was not what he wants.

He gets a 3 mile trip today – plus decent ground – and I would hope that his jockey, Noel Fehily will ride him prominently…

It was actually the presence of Fehily that swayed me to make Barlow a tip today.

So I hope he doesn’t let me down !!

0.5 pt win Barlow 10/1

In the previous race on the card, I would expect Sonofvic to outclass his rivals…

2/1 last night was actually quite tempting – but the market has righted itself this morning – and there is a NR.

At slightly odds against, I’ll be happy enough just watching him win…

I got very close to tipping Notarfbad in the 3:05 race.

We were on him at Ascot last time out – but the race seemed a bit too much for him.

He should be more at home in todays race – but there are lots of dangers….

The one that worries me most, is probably the bottom horse, the ex French, Vif Argent.

It’s impossible to get a handle on him – but if the money came, you would have to take notice…

Then ofcourse there is Oh Crick. I don’t really think that todays test is ideal for him – but he is well handicapped !!
Add into the mix 2 or 3 interesting others and you can see why I chose to pass on the 6/1 about Notarfbad.

Towcester

The third ‘nearly’ tip of the day runs in the 1:45 at Towcester…

It is difficult to argue that Ratify didn’t look a fair bet at 5/1 in a race where he seems only to have one serious rival.

Furthermore, that horse, Riddleofthesands, was an impressive winner on Thursday and runs under a penalty today, so could be vulnerable…

However, Ratify likes to go from the front – as does Riddleofthesands.

Also, Ratify is a weak finisher – and that really isn’t what you want at Towcester…

Looking a the formbook, Ratify was a tip - but something inside me just wouldn’t allow me to put him up…

Finally, Kings Apollo runs in the handicap hurdle at 2:45.

He was a good winner at Ludlow 10 days ago – and unlike Ratify, seems sure to be well suited by the Towcester hill…

3/1 is not a great price – but it is probably fair.
The worry would be whether there is something else lurking in the race (it has that look about it !!).

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Nav 2:25 Pass the Hat 16/1

Nav 2:25 Living next Door 12/1

Exe 2:35 Barlow 10/1

Mentions

Nav 2:55 Skibabe (O)

Exe 2:05 Sonofvic (P)

Exe 3:05 Notarfbad (O)

Tow 1:45 Ratify (C)

Tow 2:45 Kings Apollo (P)