Daily write-up - Nov 12th

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Sedgefield.

As I said in the my early email, there are some interesting horses running today –and some interesting races.

However, as seems to be the case pretty much every (midweek) day, trying to find a bit of ‘value’ first thing in the morning, is near on impossible.

There is plenty of value in the prices that the bookies issue early in the evening.

I suspect that they price up the races with quite a small margin - but are prepared to take very little on each runner.

That way, they find out the ‘ceiling’ price for each horse, without incurring much of a liability.

As a result, they have a very accurate tissue to use in the morning (when they also price up more conservatively). Consequently there are very few ricks…

There is no easy way round it – but nobody is forcing us to play.

We just have to be prepared to take our time and wait for opportunities to arise.

I also have to be realistic about the prices I’m after – and keep any negatives in perspective (as I said on Sunday).

I looked at quite a few of the races last night – and found a horse or two in most of them.

However, non of them were rock solid – and I could see very little margin in any of the prices this morning.

I eventually decided to target one race today.

The horses I have tipped were the two that most interested me – and the prices on offer this morning seemed fair enough (bearing in mind it is a 6 runner race !).

So, without further ado, the logic for the tips – and a few thoughts on some of the other races…

Sedgefield

2:20

As I’ve just mentioned, there were 2 horses that took my eye in this race: the top 2, Seedsman and Kilmacowen.

Both are from southern yards and so have travelled quite a long way today, to take on 4 northern based rivals.

My slight preference is for Seedsman, who was a fair novice hurdler last season.

He won in heavy ground on his seasonal debut in a handicap at Lingfield, before probably showing better form in defeat, in novice hurdles at Leicester and Fakenham.

He ran particularly well in the Fakenham race, where he attempted to give 6lhb to the very useful Edmond Kean and was only beaten 6 lengths.

On the back of that run, Seedsman contested the EBF National Hunt novices final at Sandown. This tends to be a rich source of decent novice chasers for the following season  - so whilst he was only able to finish 8^th of 16, is was probably still a very good run.

In his final run of the campaign at Stratford, he finished a disappointing third. But he may well have been going over the top at that point…

He resumes today off a mark of 124, which looks fair enough to me. The trip and ground should be fine – and we know he can go well fresh.

In short, he ticks a lot of boxes and 5/1 is  a fair enough price…

The other one I want on side in the contest, is Kilmacowen…

He caught my eye travelling strongly in a competitive 3m handicap hurdle at Cheltenhams October meeting.

I marked him down as one to follow that day – but I didn’t necessarily, expect it to be over fences.

He had one go jumping fences last season and that was a bit of a disaster – so hopefully today will go better.

He has some PTP experience from his younger days, so there is no reason why he won’t jump a fence. He is also well handicapped on the best of his hurdling form and should have no issue with todays distance or the ground.

Add into the mix his eye catching seasonal debut and you can see why I thought him worth a saver at a best price of 15/2…

In truth, victory for any of the 6 runners wouldn’t come as a big surprise – but I do think we’ve secured a bit of value with Seedsman and Kilmacowen – so lets hope we get a bit of luck to go with it !!

0.5pt win Seedsman 5/1

0.25pt win Kilmacowen 15/2

If I’d been able to tip as soon as the first show came in yesterday evening, we would have been in a very nice position in the 3:20 race…

Silver Roque was installed as an 8/1 shot by VC and Ladbrokes, which was just too big.

He’s a horse who goes well fresh – and who could be a fair bit better than his current handicap mark.

He should have no issue with todays trip, provided the ground isn’t overly soft.

In short, he was a very good bet at 8/1. At half that price, I guess it’s more debatable…

The other one I would have had on side at the early prices, is Divers…

He has his first run for Donald McCain today – and is potentially thrown in off a mark of 130 (he won at the Cheltenham festival off 132).

Obviously there is a chance he has deteriorated – but if McCain has managed to relight the old flame, he would take some beating.

In a ideal world, he would have been a perfect saver at 10/1…

Back in reality, there is less margin in the current 7/1 quote…

Huntingdon

In the opener at Huntingdon, I think Just Cloudy will run a big race…

He was the very well backed winner of a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot in June and the beaten horses that day, have subsequently franked the form in no uncertain terms.

He ran a fair race after an absence, last time out at Plumpton and I would expect him to do at least the same today.

I’ll certainly be cheering him on whatever, as he is part owned by one of our numbers (best of luck for the afternoon, Stuart).

In the following race, I was half tempted by Ballyhilty Bridge, at a price…

He travels so well through his races, it’s difficult to believe he’s never won one.

However, he’s not – and a bit like Dylan Ross on Saturday, you have to wonder how much he actually wants it.

On balance, a watching brief seemed like the best call…

Finally, the handicap hurdle at 2:10 contains some good quality animals.

Baile Anrai is potentially well treated on his debut for Dan Skelton and I can understand the money coming for him. I would expect this to be a pipe opener for a chasing campaign – but if he is spot on today, he could be difficult to beat.

One I think might have his measure, is favourite, Broadway Buffalo.

He was sent off favourite for the very competitive Silver trophy, on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

He led over the last that day, but weakened on the run in.

If that outing has brought him on, he may  able to gain compensation today (though there are also a few dark horses in the race).

Lingfield

Heavy rain has forced all of the scheduled hurdles race to be abandoned, so Lingfield puts on a mainly chase card (with a couple of AW bumpers as well).

It’s the opening two races that I was most interested in – particularly the Venetia Williams runners (I can sense a theme entering my write-ups !!)

If her Richmond is ready to go in the opener, I would expect him to win – and probably win very easily…

He’s had a stop/start career so far, but was decent over hurdles – and looked like he was going to be decent over fences (in his one start over the larger obstacles).

Few horses go backwards after transferring into her yard, so he is clearly the one to beat.

If circumstances were slightly different however, I would have been tempted to tip Hand on Bach.

However, I’m not sure he will be suited by the likely very heavy ground – and I would prefer the stable of Warren Greatrex to be in better form.

Add in to that the presence of Richmond and I couldn’t tip him – even at a decent price.

However he runs to day though, he is definitely one to look out for next time…

In the second race on the card,  I was half tempted to tip Howards Legacy – even with form figures of ‘PPP’ for his last 3 runs !
I selected him in my pre-season, when he ran at Aintree, but he made a bad mistake at the very first fence and was subsequent pulled up.

That run can be ignored –and obviously Venetias horses are going much better now.

However, I have to acknowledge that he does face some very stiff competition today: Toby Leron and De Blacksmith could both be horses going places, so even at a fair price, I decided to pass on Howards Legacy.

Let’s hope I don’t regret that call !!

Here’s to a great day ahead.

TVB.

Tips

Sedg 2:20 Seedsman 5/1

Sedg 2:20 Kilmacowen 15/2

Mentions

Sedg 3:20 Silver Roque (P) and Divers (S)

Hunt 1:10 Ballyhilty Bridge (S)

Hunt 2:10 Broadway Buffalo (P)

Ling 1:30 Richmond (P) and Hand on Back (C)

Ling 2:00 Howars Legacy (O)