Daily write-up - Nov 14th

There are 3 NH meetings today: in the UK and Taunton and Ludlow – and in Ireland at Clonmel…

The trouble with this ‘job’ is that the days/hours you work, are almost completely out of your control.

If the races/horses are there, I need to be finding them – and only if they are not, can I have a rest...

I quite fancied a rest today: it’s been a tough week – a couple of horses beaten when looking all over winners, have left the P&L for the season in a sorry state.

Obviously it’s still early days: I’m only just starting to stake things ‘properly’ – and we have a big Cheltenham meeting on the horizon – but all the same, not quite the start I’d been looking for…

However, when my alerts came thought last night – and reminded me of a ‘dark one’ that I’d spotted a few weeks back, I had a feeling I was going to be up and typing this morning – and so it proved…

In fairness, I shouldn’t complain.

I’ve complained enough about prices vanishing overnight – and there was non of that with todays tip.

He opened up at 12/1 yesterday evening – which surprised me – and then drifted a little to 14/1 – which amazed me !

I think the difference between him and a lot that I’ve wanted to put up lately, is that he is a low profile horse, from a low profile stable, running in a low profile race.

In short, he’s the sort that is always likely to slip under the radar of the masses.

I know I should be trying to find more like him (win, lose or draw) – but it’s not that easy.

I do try and focus on less obvious runners when I’m watching the races – but the high profile trainers have a high profile for a reason – they saddle most of the best horses !

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble - I intended to keep this short today !!

Just a couple of other things:

Time pressure will mean  that I will struggle to produce the ‘review of the day’ in the normally timely fashion. Pod doesn’t run until 3:40 – and I want to be focused on tomorrows Cheltenham card from 4:00 – so I will be struggling for time.

I will get a review of the day out – but it may well be later in the evening…

On the subject of Cheltenham tomorrow, I want to open the tipping window for an hour again this evening, to beat Pricewise and friends to the punch on the big races.

This will happen between 5:00 and 6:00 and I will only tip in the races where most of the bookmakers have priced up.

Onto the rationale for today tip then – and quite a lot of speculative mentions (it’s one of those days !!)

Taunton

3:40

As I’m sure you can imagine, I watch quite a lot of races…

Every now and then, I watch a race which through conventional measures, appears poor – but which I have the feeling might turn out to be a good deal better…

One such race was the novice handicap chase which was run at Stratford on 26^th October.

The prize money on offer was relatively poor – and the field appeared to be composed of a relatively modest bunch – but I’m not so sure that will turn out to be the case…

Most of the horses running in it, were real ‘NH’ horses. Slow developing types, who take time to mature – and show any form.

A number of big stables were represented in the race – but the one that caught my eye, was Pod.

He is trained by Caroline Keevil – a useful enough NH trainer, but hardly a house-hold name.

What first struck me about Pod, was his immaculate jumping. For a 5 year old novice, jumping a fence in public for the first time, he barely put a foot wrong.
If you can find a novice who can jump, they are often worth following.

But more than that, he seemed to have an engine. He motored round the outside of the field – and only gave second best on the run to the penultimate fence.

For a horse who hadn’t run for 4 months – that was quite understandable.

Very generously, the handicapper has dropped Pod 3lb for that run – but, to be honest, if I’ve read things correctly, that should be irrelevant.
This is a poor race – and Pod gets to run in it  with a feather weight.

I think he will take a lot of beating…

Obviously, there is a chance that I’ve not read things right – and last time out, he was flattered to run quite well in a poor race. That’s a chance I’m prepared to take…

An option was for me to tip him EW – but I’m loathed to do that, as NRs can mess up place terms – and with a horse jumping fences for only the second time in public, one mistake could prove costly.

Instead, I looked through the field to find the most likely danger.

Most of Pods opponents today are very exposed types  – but one who could be a fair bit better than he has shown so far, is Milosam.

He is from the powerful stable of Philip Hobbs, and the fact that he is sticking with a horse currently rated 73 suggests he thinks it has a bit more ability than it has so far shown.

As a consequence, a saver on him seemed the best call.

Hopefully it won’t be needed though because I am very optimsitic that Pod will justify my confidence in him – and start to show the strength of that seemingly modest Stratford race…

0.75pt win Pod 12/1 (prior to R4)

0.25pt win Milosam 13/2 (prior to R4)

In the opener on the card, I was quite interested in the Paul Webber trained Halucha…

He ran a nice race at Towcester recently and should be well suited by todays trip and ground.

However, he has shown his best form at Towcester - and that and Taunton are very different tracks; also the stable of Paul Webber is going through a bit of a quiet spell at the moment.

Just a mention, I think…

In the following race, on the card, Don Pooleoni caught my eye – but he caught the eye of plenty of other people as well..

The Harry Fry/Noel Fehily combination is getting quite a reputation, so following them is not likely to yield great profits – however it will yield winners and ‘Don’ may well be one of them,…  

Ludlow

I got very close to a tip in 3:00 race – but I just thought it a bit too speculative…

Looking at the way it has been backed this morning, I am now half wishing I’d taken the risk !

Kings Apollo is the horse I had in mind – but I felt there was just too much speculation involved.

He’s a 4 year old, with very little form – who has been running in PTPs on his last 3 outings !

He comes from a yard hat I have a lot of time for – Tom Symonds. And if he had put his normal conditional jockey, Ben Poste, in the saddle, I would probably have taken the risk. Instead, he’s put up a 7lb claimer who will be having his first ever ride over hurdles…

He may be the next AP I guess, but betting blind on both horse and jockey seemed a step too far.

The market seems keen though ;)

Rydalis seems a very obvious one for Venetia in 2:00…

At the early 3/1 I might have been half tempted – at 9/4 the temptations isn’t there.

He could well win – and probably should win well – but I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if something managed to pip him…

Finally, there is a cracking novice handicap chase at 2:30…

I can completely understand the money behind Daymar Bay, who opened up at 14/1 yesterday evening – but is now in to 9/2 best.

He’s shown very little recently – but had previously shown a good deal of potential.

I thought the most obvious one was Christopher Wren – but he has drifted out to 8/1.

He would be of some interest at that price…

The other one I like was Santo Thomas. He’s making his return from a very long absence – but Venetia’s rarely want for fitness…

The winner could come from outside these 3, I guess – but I’ll be a little surprised if it does…

Clonmel

The high light of the Clonmel card – and the best race of the day – is the Clonmel Oil chase…

There are only 6 runners but all have a chance – and the likely quickish ground gives an interesting angle…

Toner D’Oudaries is not the most talented runner in the field – but he is fit and will handle the ground conditions better than most. At 7/1 he is of some interest…

If the rain did come, then I would probably switch to Texas Jack (as Ruby Light wants it very soft and Arvka Legeonniere looks too short in the betting for a horse who has some chinks in his armour).

In the previous race, on the card, I could have been interested in Sarabd, who ran very well last time out.

However a relatively short price and the presences of Questions Answered make him a mention rather than a tip…

Here’s to a great day ahead.

TVB

Tips

Taun 3:40 Pod 12/1

Taun 3:40 Milosam 13/2

Mentions

Taun 1:10 Halucha (C)

Taun 1:40 Don Pooleoni (P)

Lud 2:00 Rydalis (P)

Lud 2:30 Santo Thomas (S), Christopher Wren (O), Daymar Bay (S)

Lud 3:00 Kings Apollo (S)

Clon 1:55 Sarabad (P)

Clon 2:25 Toner D’Oudaries (O)