Review of the day

At long last, a decent day – but I think you all know that it should have been an awful lot better…

The trouble with being on a losing run, is that it makes you a little more cautious when it comes to tipping horses – or indeed staking them.

I think we can consider ourselves a little unlucky to be on a losing run, but that’s where we are and after the performance yesterday – and having little jump out at me today - I was naturally a little cautious today about what I tipped and how I staked it…

Needless to say, what I should have done, was throw caution to the wind, and tip everything I considered tipping – and staked ‘properly’ the tips that I did issue.

But caution got the better of valour…

At the end of the day, I couldn’t face losing 5pts on the day – whereas only making 5pts is far more palatable.

The fact hat we could/should have made 3 times that amount will probably count against us at the end of the season – but there’s not a lot I can do about it now…

Anyway…

The first 2 tips to run were Alvarado and Monbeg Dude in the staying chase.

As you will all doubtless recall, I tipped Alvarado last Saturday but he was withdrawn. I felt I had to stick with him today.
That said, it was Monbeg Dude whom I really fancied for the race – despite the form book telling me he had no chance !

And I was feeling very smug when he jumped the last in the lead – however he tired up the hill and eventually only managed a fourth placing.

His jumping was again shocking – and I think Rickard Johnson delivered him too early.

The horse has some engine though – he will win more big races this season, that’s for sure.

Fortunately, one of the horses that powered past him up the run in, was Alvarado.

Given a text book waiting ride by Paul Moloney, he pounced late and landed the spoils.

Bradley was back in third place and Tour Des Champs sixth, so I think it is fair to say that I picked up on the right horses when I was assessing the race.

Obviously, what I didn’t do, was have the courage to stake them properly – but at least we made a profit on the race…

Next up it was the big one – the Paddy Power Gold cup.

As you may have picked up from the write-up, I was a bit keener on Eater Meteor than the staking suggested !

And how close he went to repaying my ‘faith’ ! He led most of the way round and was still in the lead and going quite well, when he got the second last fence wrong and paid the penalty…

The horse didn’t deserve that (and neither did we !) – but the fences are there to be jumped.

In truth it was still a little too far out to say what would have happened.

It did look as if he would get passed - but he’s a battler – and he would have stayed on up the hill, I’m pretty sure of that.

Whether he would have got back up to beat Johns Spirit, is debateable, but I think we can consider ourselves a little unlucky not to capture the place part of  the bet, at very least…

I guess on the flip side, we were maybe a little fortunate to get the place part of the bet up on Cross Kennon.
Well, maybe fortunate is the wrong word – because the horse battled well and deservedly hung on to fourth place.

But he did only just hang on…

It was actually a pleasing result (for once), as I made the decision to just go with him EW rather than split stakes with Silver Eagle, who ultimately finished well beaten…

Ofcourse, the result of the next race wasn’t quite so pleasing ! (unless you are one of those people who backs the strong mentions !).

On a different day, I would have taken a risk with Creepy – but I didn’t today.

As I said in the write-up, whilst I expect him to run well, I thought that there would probably be one or two capable of beating him on the day.

Well, those one or two mounted a challenge from the last, but they couldn’t get past him.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, the market is often a good guide for the Speculative bets and the bets where my concern is over the Opposition.

The market was very keen on Creepy today – and, as is so often the case, the market was right…

The first race on the card was won by the Nicky Henderson trained juvenile, Royal Irish Hussar – no surprise there then.

However there was a bit of surprise in the second race on the card, when African Gold didn’t perform to the expected level - and Le Bec was indeed the one to take advantage.

There didn’t seem too much margin in his 4/1 price this morning – but he still managed to go off at 3/1 !

Finally, Sunday Serenade race a nice race in the bumper – but I think it was just a bit too much for her at this stage of her career.

She undoubtedly has a fair bit of ability – and I will be keeping an eye on her when she is sent over hurdles in Ireland.
The winner of the race was The Govaness, who retuned at a very generous 28/1. I could certainly have given her a shout – if I had an infinte amount of time, to cover every horse in every race !!

Off Piste, then things didn’t go quite as well…

At Uttoxeter, neither San Telm nor Cocacobana ever featured in the handicap chase.

Both horses looked like they could do with softer ground – or a longer trip - or both !

Ringa Bay ran a much better race than he had done last Sunday – but that only managed to secure him third placing.

Still, he might yet be of some interest in the future.

At Wetherby, the money did come for Lookout Mountain – and he really should have won.
However he fluffed the final two hurdles and that ultimately cost him the race.

Whilst in the handicap hurdle, Zafranagar got even closer to victory and was only touched off in the final few strides.

Hartside finished a never nearer fifth – but he ran with considerable promise.

He might be dropped a pound for the run – and would definitely be of interest on softer ground or over a slightly longer trip.

At Punchestown, Champagne Fever scored a bloodless victory in the novice chase – but it told us little, other than he can jump when not under pressure.

He won’t always have such an easy times of things – so whilst he remains a chaser of considerable potential, I won’t be getting carried away with him just yet.

Finally, Hop In couldn’t quite get back up in the handicap hurdle.

He was inconvenienced by having to make his own running – and then got caught out when the winner quickened past him.

Give him a strong pace and a big field and he will leave this form behind.

On to tomorrow then…

TVB.