Daily write-up - Nov 5th

Just the one NH card today, at Exeter – but for a mid week, it’s a very good card indeed…

I spent a lot of time going through all of the races last night, and whilst I’ve not found any gilt edged tips, I think I’ve found some interesting ones…

I’ve got quite a lot to write in the preview, so I figure I should get straight on with it – beginning with the big race of the day…

Exeter

2:50

I accept that Cue Card is a class act – and that a rating of 172 doesn’t flatter him – but I still have to take him on today…

That is due in part to me wondering just how wound up he’ll be for todays race (bearing in mind, he will have a long season ahead of him) – and also to the fact that todays trip is probably a minimum for him.

He might get away with both; he is a free running sort, who probably doesn’t take a lot of getting fit – but at 5/4 I would be taking a watching brief whatever…

The reason I want to play in the race, is because I think Somersby could be a very well handicapped horse.

Consensus seems to be that he’s on the downgrade. I guess that might be the case but as a relatively lightly raced 9 year old, I can see little reason why that would be the case.

His former trainer, Henrietta Kinght, had her faults  - but burning out her horses early, was never one of them…

Instead, I think he simply had a poor last season.

It consistent of just the 3 runs: 2 on unsuitably soft ground – and a fall.

Despite that, the form of his second run actually makes very interesting reading…

That was behind Cue Card at Ascot.

What makes it interesting, is that whilst the 2m5f trip on soft ground, would have suited Cue Card far better than Somersby, the latter was only beaten 8 lengths.

Today, over a trip and on ground that will suit Somersby much better, he is a massive 17lb better off at the weights…

Now I’m not one for taking pounds and lengths too literally over the jumps – but that is a huge turnaround in the weights for such a beating…

Obviously, we can’t be sure how fit Somersby will be today. However, as a horse who now has something to prove, I’ll be a little surprised (and disappointed !) if Mick Channon hasn’t got him close to peak fitness.

He really needs to be pressing on with the horse as he has probably only got a season or two left at his peak.

Obviously this is not just a 2 horse race and the chances of Williams Wishes in particular, have to be respected.

However, there was only one horse I was ever going to be interested in opposing Cue Card with – and we have him on board J

0.5pt win Somersby 15/2

3:50

When I first looked at this race, there were two horses that caught my eye: Rydalis and Gas Line Boy.

The latter made a very pleasing chasing debut at Chepstow last month; whilst the former is the only runner today for Venetia Williams (who obviously bounced back to form on Saturday)…

The trouble with horses like these two, is that they are soon latched on to by the masses – and as a consequence, their prices will quickly shorten.

That is no good to us. If I am consistently putting us on horses that have already been backed, we will end up losing. There can be little doubt about that.

Obviously there are occasions when tipping a horse that is shortening in price is the right thing to do – but this is quite a trappy contest and there are certainly other horses in it with decent chances…

If Kind of Easy can sort out his jumping, he could prove well ahead of his handicap mark; whilst the chances of Well Hello There are also quite obvious.

I could have been interested in Mr Gardner, but he has top weight for his seasonal debut and is racing over a trip further than he is proven.

Alderluck could also be interesting but the trip is probably a minimum for him (and he would appreciate softer ground).

One with less question marks against him than most, is Arkose…

He was a very easy winner over hurdles on his seasonal debut last year and then followed up off todays mark in the soft at Kempton.

He would have gone very close off a 9lb higher mark in his third race of the season

 – but a significant mistake at the last cost him his chance of victory.

It did however confirm that he is well handicapped off todays mark.

His first time out victory also showed that he can go well fresh and that todays ground and trip will hold no fears for him.

The biggest concern is probably his jumping.

He has run 7 times over the bigger obstacles and never won.

In truth, his form over fences doesn’t quite match his form over hurdles - but it is quite possible that he improved last season.

If that is the case, with everything else in his favour, he should go close today.

And at a fair price, I figured he was worth a minimum investment.

0.25pt win Arkose 9/1

4:20

This is probably the most interesting tip of the day…

My angle into the race was via the top weight, Bygones Sovereign.

The form of his course win last April looks very strong, so I was hoping I could build a case for him.

However, on reviewing the race, I think his jockey stole it that day. He built up a huge lead and there was a bit of mid race carnage that helped his cause.

I also think he was helped by the quick ground and the shorter trip – in summary, I’m not sure he will be able to repeat the feat today (though I can forgive him his runs since).

There are a number of unexposed, potentially interesting types in the race (which is a bit of a worry !) – and it is one of those that I latched on to…

Barton Jubilee has only run 6 times on his life – and 4 times over hurdles, but I think he has shown distinct promise the last twice…

His penultimate race was at Uttoxeter last season,. He ultimately finished a very well beaten third that day, but he tried to go with 2 rivals who are both rated now rated 135+.

Barton Jubilee gets to run off a mark of 111 today, which shows the magnitude of what he was trying to do that day.

Last time out on his seasonal debut, he again ran with promise at Wincanton.

He was given a relatively quiet ride that day and never really threatened to win – but I suspect it will have teed him up nicely for today…

He’s the sort of horse who is always likely to slip under the radar – and therefore the sort of horse we need to be latching on to.

There is undoubtedly a risk with him – but that is more than factored into the price.

I think he represents a good bet J

Just a quick mention for Cute Court, who is lurking next to the bottom of the field.

I couldn’t possibly have tipped (he has no form !) – but I have this inkling that he is significantly better than he appears.

I’m hoping that making him a mention will stop him in his tracks ;)

0.5pt win Barton Jubilee 16/1

The opening race on the card, is an absolute cracker (though not one that I’m prepared to tip in !).

There are a host of potentially very exciting novice hurdlers in opposition and I’ll be very surprised if it doesn’t throw up a hatful of winners – watch it carefully…

Aside from the obvious ones at the top of the market, the 2 that interested me were Junction Fourteen and Master Butcher. I would be hopeful that both will run nice races – at very least…

The second race on the card is also a novice hurdle – but it’s nowhere near as strong..

Of the market leaders, Doctor Harper was the one I preferred – with Chill Factor the most interesting one at price…

There is only a small field of the novice chase at 3:20 - but it is still a very interesting race…

Provided the ground remains good(ish), Claret Cloak should take the beating.

That said, he is held on hurdles form by Manyriverstocross ! However, that one is making it’s seasonal/fencing debut –and would probably prefer a greater test of stamina…

On balance, probably a watching race.

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Exe 2:50 Somersby 15/2

Exe 3:50 Arkose 9/1

Exe 4:20 Barton Jubilee 16/1

Mentions

Exe 1:50 Junction Fourteen & Master Butcher

Exe 2:20 Doctor Harper & Chill Factor

Exe 3:20 Manyriverstocross

Exe 4:20 Cute Court