Daily write-up - Nov 16th

It’s day 2 of the Open meeting at Cheltenham - and there are also meetings at Wetherby and Uttoxeter in the UK and Punchestown in Ireland.

I spent a lot of time yesterday pouring over today’s Cheltenham card, and came to the conclusion that it is very tricky indeed !

I was sure I could find something that I could really latch on to in one of the big 3 handicaps – but ended up finding 3 or 4 in each race.

There is always a dilemma as to how best to play things when that happens – and is so often the case, I’ve let the odds dictate to me.

This game is all about securing over the odds on selections – and if you can do that, you will win in the long run (assuming ofcourse, that you get a modicum of luck along the way !).

I’ve therefore gravitated towards the longer priced horses that I fancied – but have generally toned down the staking a bit to compensate for the greater risk.

Whether I’ve got the calls right, only time will tell…

I did consider going ’off-piste’ and tipping at one of the other meetings.

There are horse I fancy running at all 3 – and I did check them out quite thoroughly. However, there were concerns about them all – either conditions or price – so they will just be mentions instead.

Just to confirm, I will open the tipping window between 5:00 and 6:00 again this evening – in case there is anything that simply has to be tipped (though having had a quick look at tomorrows runners, I doubt that will be the case !).

Anyway, without further ado, onto a preview of the Open Day 2..

Cheltenham

12:40

Juvenile hurdle races aren’t really my bag - particularly when they are being run in November.

I really could only guess at the outcome of this particular contest – especially with all of the main yards represented by unexposed sorts.

If the ground was a bit softer, I would probably side with Abracadabra Sivola – and he might still be able to outperform odds of 25/1 plus.

But it would be guess work…

1:15

Some more guess work is required here, as the best horse in the race (on official figures), African Gold, is having his first run over fences, so we’ve no idea whether he will be any good at it…

He probably will – and in which case, he is likely to win.

However, if he’s not – or if he needs the run - then there are a number of others who will certainly be able to take advantage.

Shutthefrontdoor and Le Bec were also both very decent novice hurdlers last season (though not quite as good as African Gold) and both have already demonstrated an aptitude for fencing.

I was particularly taken by Le Bec, who could be even better than he showed last season.
However, there is no real value in a price of 4/1, with such unexposed, potentially potent rivals in opposition.

Of the others, White Star Line sets a fair standard – but it will be a little surprising if he proves able to give weight to the rest of the field.

Another race to watch…

1:50

I was absolutely convinced that I would be able to find the winner of this race – and I can’t tell you how many times I turned it round, waiting for the said horse to drop out.
But simply, it never happened…

Monbeg Dude was the first horse to jump out at me when I looked at the race yesterday…

He and Well Refreshed were the 2 staying chasing who made a really big impression on me last season and I was sure that both would go on to even better things this campaign.

Monbeg Dud made a highly encouraging seasonal debut over hurdles at the Cheltenham October meeting – and if he were mine, I would definitely have targeted him at this race.

However, there are concerns…

Firstly, all of his best form has been on heavy ground – and it is certainly won’t get that today. Also, he is over a stone worse off with Bradley for the neck by which he bet him in this race last season.

Finally, the booking of Richard Johnson for a horse that was so skilfully handled by Paul Carberry last season, strikes me as ‘strange’…

I therefore moved on…

My next port of call (not unsurprisingly, given what I’ve just written), was Bradley…

He ran very well in this race last season – and has a noted preference for the decent ground that he will get today.

He ran a very nice race on his seasonal debut at the October meeting behind Balthazar King – but he also finished behind Tour Des Champs that day and at the weights, he should finish behind that one again today…

Tour Des Champs should really be the tip then – but he has a tendency to belt the odd fence, which could prove very costly today…

The other thing is that whilst lengths and pounds are all well and good, horses improve and decline at differing rates and sometimes it is best to just stick with your gut instinct…

My gut instinct last season was that Monbeg Dude was a chaser of some potential. He should be absolutely spot on for today. The form book says otherwise – and consequently we can get a very good price about him.

I think he is worth a small risk, in the circumstances…

The other one I want on side is Alvarado…

I tipped him for the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton last Saturday and he was taken out on the morning of the race.

The case for him today would be the same as it was then.

I’m optimistic that he will appreciate the extra yardage of today’s contest (he hasn’t run this far before).

He has no form to tie him in with Monbeg Dude and chums – but he is from the same stable as Bradley.

Jockey booking should help shed some light on that one…

Maybe now you can see how I ended up going round in circles…

0.25pt win Monbeg Dude 14/1

0.25pt win Alvarado 20/1

2:30

The defection of Katenko from this race means that we start on the back foot – which is never a good place to be.

More than that, a bit like the previous race, it is a contest, which I was able to turn round and round, without a standout candidate dropping out.

Having said that, I was quite happy to discard half of the field – so I did make some progress !

Having done that, I was left with a short list of:

Champion Court, Battle Group, Ballynagour, Astracad, Easter Meteor, Nadya De La Vega and Johns Spirit…

Of the market leaders, I’ve decided to plump for Ballynagour.

He has only run twice in the UK and on his debut at Warwick last season, he simply took apart a decent field to win by 20 lengths, hard held.

You don’t see performances like that very often – not in a race of that quality.

The handicapper put him up 20lb as a consequnce but he was still sent off 7/2 favourite for the Byrne Group plate at the festival and at the top of the hill, it looked like he might be about to route that field as well.

However, he fell in a hole…

It later transpired that he had bled from the nose – something that he had done previously, when trained in France.

If a horse bleeds (and quite a lot do) then invariably, the best time to catch them is when they are fresh.

That seemed to be the case with Ballynagor last season, when presumably his follow up race at Cheltenham came too soon after his initial exertions.

Of course, there is a chance that he will bleed again today despite being fresh - but if he performs to the level that he did at Warwick, I think it will take an exceptional performance to beat him and I’m just not convinced that there are any exceptional horses in the line up.

One who certainly isn’t exceptional – but who is very useful – and who also has the potential to be even better, is Easter Meteor…

He won very well at Doncaster last December but was put up a ridiculous 15 lb for that victory.

He has been dropped back 9lb subsequently and now sits on a mark just 6lb higher –which looks fair enough…

The reason he has been dropped, is because he has put in 3 seemingly disappointing performances since his win  – but I think there are good reason for all of those ‘disappointing’ runs.

In the first of those races, at the back end of last season, he was harried for the lead and probably expended too much energy. Despite that, he was still upside Champion Court jumping the second last and only gave best from that point.

He is effectively 17lb better off with Champion Court for that run – so I really would expect him to be held (even though he is almost favourite for todays race !).

On his seasonal debut this season , Eater Meteor was 7/2 fav for the race won by Johns Spirit.

However he slipped going to the second fence and although he negotiated it successfully it clearly affected his confidence.
That run can be ignored.

I also believe that his next – and most recent run can be ignored for the same reason. The priority was clearly to get him round safely that day – and after a few circumspect early jumps, that objective was achieved.

I think you will see the real Easter Meteor today – and I think the real Easter Meteor is a lot better than a 40/1 quote would suggest.

0.5pt win Ballynagour 8/1

0.25pt EW Eater Meteor 40/1

3:00

One thing I’ve been wrestling with since I restarted the tipping is whether it is better go side with progressive horses who you hope are able to improve sufficiently to win a race; or regressive horse who you hope haven’t deteriorated as much as the handicapper thinks...

I really don’t have a preference and always like to treat each case on it’s own merit – but there is little doubt that the market does have a preference…

Progressive horses are nearly always much preferred by the market and consequently I end up tipping a fair few ‘regressive’ type simply because I believe they offer ‘value’…

Obviously if they don’t deliver, then it is easy to say they were poor selections – but I believe there is still some mileage in that particular avenue and I’m hoping that Cross Kennon can prove that point this afternoon…

When I initially looked at todays race I was drawn to Silver Eagle (in particular), Edmund Keen and Southfield Theatre – but so was everyone else.

They were the first 3 in the betting so trying to find a bit of value was always going to be tricky…

Despite the large number of runners I don’t think there are that many in the field capable of wining so the race has a nice shape about it for EW betting…

This will be the third time that Cross Kennon has run in this race and his record is quite impressive. He won the race in 2010 and finished second in it last season.

Conventional opinion is that Cross Kennon performs best on heavy ground – and whilst such ground certainly holds no fears for him, he also had decent form on ground like todays.

His final run of last season was on ground even quicker than he will encounter today and that was a highly creditable third behind a couple of very progressive rivals,

Cross Kennon seemed to show improved form that day and it coincided with the fitting of a visor.

On his seasonal debut this year, the visor was absent. He still ran a reasonable race to finish 8^th behind Tackmate, - but I would expect to see him leave that run behind today, with the headgear back in place.

Obviously there is a chance that Corss Kennon will get caught out today by one or two of the younger, more progressive sort (as was the case in this race last season) – but I would expect him to run his race – and if he does, he will be hard to keep out of the frame.

At 5/1 a place to finish in the 4, I think he represent better value than a similar price on one of the progressive horse winning the race.

0.5pt EW Cross Kennon 20/1

3:35

I got very close to tipping in Creepy in this race – very close indeed…

My main issue was that whilst I expect him to run very well – and think that he is likely to be placed – I’ll be a little surprised if he were good enough to actually win…

There are 2 or 3 horses of significant potential running against him and it will be a little surprising if at least one of them doesn’t have his measure.

I did consider tipping him EW – but the margin for error is then very small and ultimately I just didn’t think it worth the risk…

Creepy actually made his hurdling debut in this very race last season and ran a highly creditable 4^th behind Coneygreee

He has probably improved a little on that level of form in subsequent runs – but not by a great deal.

His current rating of 131 looks about right and if that is the case, he shouldn’t be quite good enough to win today…

Timesremebered probably is good enough to win today – but he’s been installed as favourite.

He made quite an impression when wining the ‘Persian War’ at Chepstow at the end of October and if he can build on that performance, he must go close today.

Paul Nicholss runs the hurdling debutant Port Melon, He is unbeaten in PTPs and the fact that Nicholls throws him into this race on his debut under rules, says a lot about his likely level of ability.

In truth, it is not easy to eliminate any of the other members of the field – so although Creepy is the solid choice he could never be one issued with confidence.

He therefore became a mention instead J

4:05

As with the previous race, I toyed with tipping one in this – though admittedly, not for very long !
The one I was interested in was Sunday Serenade.

I was most taken by her last time out victory – and it strikes me as significant that her trainer Peter Fahey, has brought her over for this contest.

The booking of AP is also ‘eye catching’, as they say…

Sunday Serenade also showed significant ability on her second run in a bumper. Left with a ridiculous amount of ground to make up, she closed in a manner that only a decent horse can do – but ultimately gave best to her stable companion, Nathan’s Pride…

The trouble with todays race however, is that there are just too many unknowns…

Supreme Bailerena has also looked a horse of enormous ability, in her two runs so far; whilst Legacy Gold showed that she has real talent when wining the mares bumper at Aintree, last season.

Add in to the mix a host of  unexposed horse who have already shown decent form and you end up with a race best watched…

Uttoxeter

I was very interested in the 1:05 race here – with chasing debutants San Telm and Cocacobana catching my eye…

They actuality ran against each other over hurdles last time out, with Cocacobana finishing just ahead of his rival.

Both make their chasing debut todays – and I expect the form to be turned round.
Unfortunately, so does the betting, which is a real shame !
In fact, Cocacobana is so under-estimated, he should maybe be the selection – 14/1 is an insult: with a saver on San Telm at 6/1…

In the 3:25, it will be interesting to see if Ringa Bay can perform a bit better than he did hen I tipped him last Sunday at Market Rasen.

I won’t be betting on that being the case though…

Wetherby

Lookout Mountain gets to run off a 15lgb higher mark today than he did when he dotted up at Huntingdon last time.

Will that be sufficient to stop him ? I suspect the market will eventually tell…

In the 3:15 race, Hartside bids to follow up his gutsy victory on my first day of tipping…

I’m sure there will be a few of you who want to follow him – and off just a 5lb higher mar, I wouldn’t put you off.

He is likely to have improved again for that run – though I think he would prefer softer ground than he will get today.

10/1 is a decent EW price though…

The one I would potentially have been most interested in, is Zafranagar. He ran in the same race as Hartside and looked the most likely winner on the home turn – until not quite getting home. I would expect him to do better today  - but 6/1 is plenty short enough for a horse as exposed as he is.

Punchestown

High light of the Punchestown card is the chasing debut of Champagne Fever in the 1:00 race…

He was the top 2 mile novice hurdler last season and is expected to scale similar heights over the larger obstacles this campaign.

We will have a better idea of whether that will be the case, after todays run…

I was really hoping that I might have a tip in 2:10 race – but unfortunately the market is wise to it…

Hop In really should have won last time out at Naas – but was given far too much to do.

He has risen 5lb in the handicap for his defeat that day but I doubt that will stop him.

The problem is the price: 9/4 in a 13 runner handicap doesn’t leave any room for error.

Just a mention then…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chelt 1:50 Monbeg Dude 14/1

Chelt 1:50 Alvarado 20/1

Chelt 2:10 Ballynagour 8/1

Chelt 2:10 Easter Meteor 40/1

Chelt 3:05 Cross Kennon 20/1

Mentions

Chelt 1:50 Tour Des Champs (P)

Chelt 3:00 Silver Eagle (P)

Chelt 3:35 Creepy (O)

Chelt 4:05 Sunday Serenade (O)

Uttox 1:05 San Telm (P) & Cocacobana (C)

Weth 3:15 Hartside (C) & Zafranagar (P)

Punch 2:10 Hop In (P)