Daily write-up - Nov 22nd

Three NH meetings today, at Ascot, Haydock and Ffos Las…

Three weeks into the TVB season – and with the official P&L restored to zero, I will be looking to churn more points from here on in…

It was always my intention to stake more this season, but I was deliberately cautious during the first couple of weeks.

As I said the other day, my eye is now in (or as in as it is likely to get !) – and I’m feeling more comfortable with risking points. It’s time to move forward…

This said, don’t expect a raft of 2 and 3 pts bets – that won’t be happening.

If I was able to tip on first shows, then I would be more than happy to stake big – but by the time I’m tipping, the markets are well established and most of the ricks have pretty much gone.

We are therefore looking to exploit a much smaller edge – and the best way to do that is through volume…

You will therefore see more bets.

Today was a good example of that – 6 horses tipped – even if only 2.75 pts risked.

I hope this will give us the best chance of a return – whilst at the same time minimising the fluctuations in the P&L. Time will tell…

Typically, I will be looking to stake 1pt on races where I think there is a decent edge.

If I think the edge is particularly big, I’ll be happy to stake more – but in mature markets, I don’t think this will happen too often.

Stakes of less than a point on a race will therefore suggest some concerns – with 0.25pt bets, acting simply as savers…

Ofcourse the downside of issuing more tips, will be the time it will take (both to issue and to get on !).

As you may have gathered, I was struggling a bit for time this morning (I got the time of one of the Ascot races slightly wrong !).

I need to leave the house no later than 8:45 (for the school run), so only opening the tipping window at 8:30 means that things will be tight when there are a lot of tips.

My proposal is therefore to move the opening time forward by 15 mins to 8:15.

Rest assured, I will only tip in races where the markets are sufficiently strong to take it (so the majority of bookmakers have the race priced up).

I could easily have tipped in the 2 Ascot races at 8:15 this morning – plus the Haydock one. The Ffos Las one would have been a different matter – and in that case I will still wit until 8:30 (or later)…

In a similar vein, I will look to open the tipping window for an hour this evening, between 5:00 & 6:00 – in case any suitable opportunities present themselves for tomorrow…

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble, we have a busy afternoon ahead !
A quick preview of each meeting then – along with the rationale for todays tips…

Ascot

3:15

When first looking at this race, my initial feeling was that the winner was most likely to be either Annacotty or Night Alliance. However, as they are first and second fav – and relatively short in the betting – it was difficult to see much of an angle…

That said, I don’t think either is completely bomb proof: Annacotty as a novice stepping into a handicap with more experienced chasers (having had jumping problems himself, in the past): and Night Alliance competing in a much tougher race than the one he hacked up in last time…

Clearly both could win – but if I could find the right one, I would be prepared to take them on.

The problem was finding the right one…

Ballypatrick and Grove Pride are both potential improvers – but they are short enough in the betting; whilst a case of sorts could be made for Summery Jusitce, Theres no Panic, Wiesentrum and Goring One…

Of these, it was (maybe not too surprisingly), the Venetia Williams trained Summery Justice, that I was most keen on finding an angle for – and I think an angle (or half an angle) can be found…

He has a very good record fresh – and gets to run off a mark today 3lb lower than when he ran a far race on his seasonal debut at Sandown, last season…

He finished third that day, to On Tend, and just a length behind in fourth, was Brackloon High…

Brackloon High gets to re-oppose on 1lb better terms today – so if I can make a case for Summery Justice, I have to be able to make a case for Brackloon High – and I can !!

Despite finishing fourth that day, the run of Brackloon High was actually a little disappointing.

He made a number of mistakes – and clearly didn’t appreciate the heavy underfoot conditions.

He’d been much more convincing on his previous outing at Kempton, when he comfortably beat the winner of the Sandown race, On Trend.

A 3 mile trip and decent ground seem to be the key to Brackloon High – and today is the first time he gets that combination since he won at Kempton.

As a result of his recent runs, his handicap mark has also dropped to be just 2lb higher than that win – so he is looking pretty well handicapped…

Of course, all this might  not be enough. Annacotty and Night Alliance both have the potential to be much better than their current marks.

However, what it does tell me is that Brackloon High is much more likely o to run his race than people seem to think – and at 25/1 he therefore represents very decent EW value…

0.25pt EW Brackloon High 25/1

3:50

I have 2 angle in to this race: firstly, I can see chinks in the armour of the first 4 in the betting – and secondly, I think Milord might have been underrated…

I’ll start with the case for Milord…

He’s only had 6 runs over hurdles, but already has some very decent form to his name.

His best run would appear to be in last seasons Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, when he finished a highly commendable fourth.

The horses that finished around him that day have generally gone on to better things, suggesting that it was a decent renewal of the race…

I would actually argue that Milord has himself gone on to frank the form as well – but we will only know if I’m right, at the end of the season.

The reason I say this is because he has been well beaten on his 2 subsequent runs – but I think he might have been facing very dent horses indeed..

On the first occasion, Milord took a crashing fall late on, when booked for the runners up spot behind Ballyalton.

It is nearly impossible to gauge the worth of that form, but Ballyalton has only lost once in 4 outings under rules and looks to be a horse of great potential…

On his second run, Milord was well and truly put in his place by Carraig Mor. However, once again, it is impossible to accurately judge the worth of the form as  Carraig Mor was making his debut under rules…

My feeling is that Milord really bumped into one on both occasions – and a distant second to those animals was no disgrace at all…

I would therefore be inclined to judge Milord more on his Fred Winter form (which is possible to quantify) and based on that, he is a young progressive horse, who looks well weighted today on a mark of 125…

The other reason for wanting to get involved in this race, is the question marks against the market leaders…

Brinestine won a class 4 race well last week and is officially 5lb well in today. However he is stepping up 2 classes – and the horse who finished second to him in that race, didn’t really frank the form this week.

Hammersly Lake is making his debut for Nicky Henderson and is having his first run for over 2 years. Apparently he has had lots of niggling problems and whilst he might be much better than his current mark, I suspect that connections are just pleased to have him on the racecourse…

Dunraven Strom is another who has had a lot of time off with injuries. He made a very pleasing comeback on this course a couple of weeks ago  - but whether he goes forward or backwards form that run is anyones guess…

Whilst Population was a very decent bumper horse and is a fair hurdler – he is held on last time out form at Musselburgh by Discovery Bay.

For some strange reason, Population is a 9/2 shot today – whereas Discovery Bay is double that price.

Bearing in mind the question marks against the market leaders, I therefore felt it was prudent to also have him on side – as a saver…

0.5pt win, 0.25pt place Milord 12/1

0.25pt win Discovery Bay 9/1

In the 2:40 race, I was half tempted by Double Ross…

He was a very decent novice hurdler last season and there is no reason why he won’t be just as good over fences.

Despite that, he gets to run off a mark of just 133 today  -which time could show is very generous…

He was put in last night at 11/2, which was an unbelievable price.

However he is a best price of 11/4 this morning – which is far less tempting…

I think he would prefer softer ground than he will get today – and his inexperience over fences is obviously a concern.

When you add into the mix some pretty useful oppostion, you can see that the value is limited…

He could win – and he could win well – but I can’t quite bring myself to tip him at the price…

Ffos Las

2:15

One I did being myself to tip at the price – despite it crashing even more than that of Double Ross, was Super Villan…

He opened up at 12/1 in a couple of places last night - which must be a contender for bet of the year !

He was down to 8/1 by the time I went to bed – and 13/2 when I woke up…

The last of the 6/1 vanished jus before I issued at 8:30 – which means we are on at 11/2…

Still, even that doesn’t look too bad compared to a current best price of 4/1 !!

In truth, his case is so obvious, I’ve no idea how he was ever put in at 12/1 in the first place.

He won a couple of races over hurdles last season – the second one off a mark 7lb higher than he gets to run off today.

The reason he gets to run off such a mark today is because he was a big disappointment on his chasing debut at Kempton, where he could never keep up with the pace and was pulled up not long after half way…

Connections have applied blinkers today, presumably with the intention of sharpening him up. However, I feel the ground will prove to be of much more importance…

The 2 races that Super Villan won last seaon were on soft/heavy ground. His 2 runs this season have been on much quicker ground.
If you watch the horse gallop, you will see that he has got quite a pronounced knee action. Generally this signifies a preference for softer ground.
Super Villa gets soft ground today (may be heavy)  and as a consequence, I would expect him to leave behind his form from last time…

The race actually has a really nice shape with only 6 runners – and a couple of those are relatively easy to dismiss…

The one I fear most is Hansupfordetroit, who was a very unlucky loser last time out at Ffos Las, when he made a shuddering blunder at the third last.

Despite that, he rallied to finished within a length of Wychwoods Brook at the line.

If he jumps round cleanly today, I can’t see how he won’t overturn that form at the same weights.

Hopefully that won’t be enough though, because I’m optimistic that Super Villan will prove just too strong for him…

0.75pt win Super Villan 11/2

0.25pt win Hansupfordetroit 3/1

Haydock

12:50

The old dilemma: strong mention or saver tip..?

For the second time this week, I have opted for the tip option – and once again, I’ll be disappointed if Abruzzi doesn’t at least go close to collecting…

In truth, it is a tricky race to get a firm handle on.
There are plenty for whom a case could be made – but I did like the run of Abruzzi last time out at Plumpton.

He only finished second that day, but it was his seasonal debut and he ended up a fair way clear of the third horse.

It was nice to see him run such a race, as he had proved inconsistent last year –showing glimpses of good form but plenty of not such good form. The key to him seems to be a trip and 3 miles today – with the long Haydock straight – should suit well.

As I said, he couldn’t be considered a confident selection, but I did think there was some mileage in a double figure quote this morning.

Hopefully he won’t let us down.

0.25pt win Abruzzi 11/1

Later on the Haydock card, I was tempted by Shangani in the Graduation chase and Many Clouds on the novice chase.

The trouble is, both are running in small fields – and as inexperienced chasers, there is always a chance of costly mistakes.

I thought both represented a bit of value at 4/1 last night – though neither is available at that price today.

I’ll be interested to see how they perform, as it might help my decide how I should handle similar cases in the future…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Ascot 3:15 Brackloon High 25/1

Ascot 3:50 Milord 12/1

Ascot 3:50 Discovery Bay 9/1

Ffos 2:15 Super Villan 11/2

Ffos 2:15 Hansupfordetroit 3/1

Hayd 12:50 Abruzzi 11/1

Mentions

Asc 2:40 Double Ross (P)

Hayd 1:20 Shangani (P)

Hayd 2:30 Many Clouds (P)