A good part of the reason for
siding with Reve De Sivola in this, is the doubts over so many of the market
leaders…
Looking down the bookmakers price
list, it is difficult to identify many horses that are guaranteed to make the
race – so having one on your side, who will run (injury etc permitting), is
obviously a good place to start…
The market is headed by the
legendary Big Bucks, who will be looking to win this race for an incredible
fifth time…
However, he has not seen a
racecourse for well over 12 months – and is an 11 year old with plenty of miles
on the clock.
The bottom line is, non of them
go on for ever – and at 5/2 he can only be the choice of the romantics…
Next in the market is Annie Power
– and if she turns up on the big day, she will take some beating.
However, she is more likely to go
for the Champion hurdle so a best price of 4/1 makes limited appeal, when she
must be around 2/1 just to make the gig…
Similarly, third favourite, More
of That, is a far from certain runner…
He is very inexperienced, with
just 4 runs under his belt and his connections could easily decide that this
race comes a year too soon…
Fourth favourite, Quevega, almost
certainly won’t run – which means we have reached the double figure prices,
before we’ve found a horse who is even sure to turn up (all things being
equal).
And, as I say, that is one of the
big attractions about Reve De Sivola.
His trainer, Nick Williams, made
it perfectly clear after the horse had won the Long Walk hurdle at Ascot, that
his next race would be the World hurdle.
He was actually sent off 4/1
second favourite for last seasons World Hurdle – but finished a slightly
disappointing fourth.
However, that wasn’t a bad run –
particularly as it was on ground that he would have found plenty quick enough
(he would likely have gone off favourite if the ground had been softer)
Williams was disappointed by it
however, and pin pointed the horses earlier defeat of Oscar Whiskey on
Cheltenham trials days as the main reason for it.
Reve De Sivola had a very hard
race that day, beating an extremely talented rival – and that apparently took
the edge off him and prevented him from performing at his best, last March.
Clearly Williams is determined to
learn from that and is planning Reve De Sivola whole season around this years
race.
That gives me a lot of confidence
that not only will the horse turn up on the day – he will also be in tip, top
condition.
If that is the case – and if the
ground is riding soft – I think he will take the beating.
Even if the ground isn’t soft, I would expect him to be able to match last seasons performance at very least.
Even if the ground isn’t soft, I would expect him to be able to match last seasons performance at very least.
As things currently stand, he
looks a very good EW bet to me – and I would be hopeful that situation will
improve further as the big day gets closer…
0.5pt EW Reve De Sivola
16/1 (1/4 odds 1,2,3)
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