3 NH meetings today: 2 in England; whilst Down Royal hosts its big meeting of the year, in the north of Ireland.
There are some decent contests at all 3 tracks – and some decent horses will also be on show.
Things are certainly starting to come together….
Just the one tip on the day however – and a small one at that.
I did toy with a second – and I also considered a higher stake on the tip – but I feel it is best to initially proceed with a degree of caution – at least until I feel I’m properly in the groove.
You will all notice the slight change in format, which I intend to use this season.
Having the tips – and the mentions at the bottom of the email, should provide you with a quick point of reference for the days action.
You should then be able to refer back to the detail, for the rationale behind me fancying a particular horse.
Formalising the mentions will also hopefully prove to be useful. It should certainly enable me to see more clearly, when my judgement comes into focus (assuming it does !).
Seeing mentions winning will be frustrating in the short-term – but it will provide me with a clearer trigger for moving more of them across to be tips…
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble – and on to the days action…
Wetherby
One of the most interesting horses running today, appears in the very first race.
Oscar Rock was officially the second best bumper horse of last season – and he makes his hurdling debut today
He has been transferred into the care of Malcom Jefferson (from Harry Fry) during the summer and it will be a big surprise if he doesn’t open his account over hurdles at the first time of asking.
Very much one to watch for the future…
I got perilously close to tipping in the 1:40 race…
In fact, if the prices available whilst I am writing this, had been available when the tipping window was open, Hartside would have been another 0.25pt EW bet.
He was a 16/1 shot early – but he is now 25/1 in places, and I think he is worth a risk at that price.
He was a progressive performer on the flat in Ireland, 18 months ago – so much so, that Gigginstown paid a fair amount for him.
He did win a novice hurdle last season – though that was in fortuitous circumstances and it is fair to say he was generally disappointing.
They off loaded him in the summer and he was picked up by Peter Winks for a relaive pittance.
He’s not a trainer I know anything about - but he seems to run a very small operation.
Little surprise then, that Hartside seemed to need his first run for him – but them improved quite markedly on his second outing.
My guess is that he will improve again further today – and that makes him potentially interesting, at a very big price.
Clearly, there are a lot of unknowns in opposition – but we do know that Hartside was decent on the flat and therefore has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current 109 rating over hurdles.
A very strong mention !!
2:10
This is undoubtedly the race of the day – and I have to say that on initial inspection, I had no intention of tipping in it…
There are 13 runners – and victory for almost any of them, would come as no great surprise.
On the flip side, pretty much every runner has also got a fairly big question mark against it – classically then, a watching race…
However, price is everything in this game, so I had a quick look at the outsiders…
When I looked last night, Triptico was the complete outsider of the field – a general 20/1 shot and 25/1 in a place.
Examining his form, that price seemed wrong to me – and by a fair degree.
He is a young, progressive horse, who has only had 11 life time runs.
He has been placed on every outing bar 1 - which was over 3 miles (a trip he probably found too far).
He has run well on his seasonal debut every year – and has form with some serious horses (Highland Lodge, Harry Topper and Same Difference, to name just 3).
He also has a verdict over the favourite for todays race, Noble Legend – and is better off at the weights with that one.
He will be well suited by todays trip and ground and is the only runner on todays card for both Evan Williams and Paul Moloney.
In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…
At 25/1, he would have been 0.5pt EW – at 16/1 I’ve made him 0.25pt.
He should probably be staked somewhere between the 2…
As I said, I could give a chance to the majority of the opposition.
Mon Perrain could easily bounce back to form of a fair enough mark; I would expect Easter Meteor to run much better than he did at Cheltenham (where an early mistake did for his chances); Cantlow clearly has potential off his current mark – whilst Duke of Lucca is handicapped to win and will doubtless be given an aggressive ride over his minimum trip.
Noble Legend and Green Wizard are both very progressive – whilst Silver Roque could be given a definite chance, if his stable were in better form.
I have bigger question marks over the remainder (class, trip or fitness) – but even so, there are enough dangers to leave me anything but confident.
That said, I do think Triptico represent value – and ultimately, that is what it is all about !
0.25pt EW Triptico 16/1
In the following race, it looks significant that Tom Scudamore is prepared to leg it over from Uttoxeter to ride Ainsi Fideles.
That said, it looks even more significant that he is then apparently going to leg it back to ride Smiles for Miles in the last there !
Don’t let that one pass if he is on board.
In the finale at Wetherby, I was quite interested in Lookout Mountain for Jonjo.
Keep an eye of the mounts of Mauice Linehan this season – I still think he could go places.
The horse was 4/1 early – which was too short. 7/1 is now available and that is far more appealing…
Uttoxeter
Not quite such a good card – but definitely one worth watching with an eye to the future…
Milord sets a fair standard in the opener – and 7/2 is a fair price.
Katnapping is a horse that always interest me…
He runs in the 1:50 – though presumably so that Long Run isn’t Sam Waley Cohen’s first ride in months, when he turns up for the Charlie Hall xhase at Wetherby tomorrow.
The best race on the card is the novice chase at 2:20.
It is possible to make a case for the 3 main protagonist – but, provided he jumps OK, I would expect Raya Star to have a bit too much class…
Forest Walker was the nearest I got to a tip at Uttoxeter – but not at 5/2…
I think he could be a lot better than his mark – but he has got to prove that and the opposition isn’t a walk over.
He may hack up – but at the prices, I’m prepared to watch…
Finally, the bumper, which as I said earlier, I would expect Smiles for Miles to take some beating in – provided Tom Scudamore is on board…
Down Royal
The high light of the card, is the seasonal reappearance of Jezki…
This race shouldn’t really tell us too much about him (other than confirming he still has 4 legs and an engine !).
I would be very surprised if he were beaten – and would choose Flaxen Flare to follow him home.
The other race that interests me on the card, is the novice chase at 3:10.
Teelin Star was in the process of running a very big race, when he fell at Wexford last time.
If this was less competitive I could have been interested in him – but it is competitive !
Seefood was probably the best of his opponents over hurdles – but Rye Martini looks the sort to make his name over fences.
Very much a race to watch for the future.
Here’s hoping for a great start to the new season !
TVB.
Tips
Weth 2:10 Triptico 16/1
Mentions
Weth 1:40 Hartside
Weth 3:55 Lookout Mountain
Uttox 12:50 Milord
Uttox 3:30 Forest Walker
Uttox 4:05 Smiles for Miles
DR 3:10 Rye Martini
There are some decent contests at all 3 tracks – and some decent horses will also be on show.
Things are certainly starting to come together….
Just the one tip on the day however – and a small one at that.
I did toy with a second – and I also considered a higher stake on the tip – but I feel it is best to initially proceed with a degree of caution – at least until I feel I’m properly in the groove.
You will all notice the slight change in format, which I intend to use this season.
Having the tips – and the mentions at the bottom of the email, should provide you with a quick point of reference for the days action.
You should then be able to refer back to the detail, for the rationale behind me fancying a particular horse.
Formalising the mentions will also hopefully prove to be useful. It should certainly enable me to see more clearly, when my judgement comes into focus (assuming it does !).
Seeing mentions winning will be frustrating in the short-term – but it will provide me with a clearer trigger for moving more of them across to be tips…
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble – and on to the days action…
Wetherby
One of the most interesting horses running today, appears in the very first race.
Oscar Rock was officially the second best bumper horse of last season – and he makes his hurdling debut today
He has been transferred into the care of Malcom Jefferson (from Harry Fry) during the summer and it will be a big surprise if he doesn’t open his account over hurdles at the first time of asking.
Very much one to watch for the future…
I got perilously close to tipping in the 1:40 race…
In fact, if the prices available whilst I am writing this, had been available when the tipping window was open, Hartside would have been another 0.25pt EW bet.
He was a 16/1 shot early – but he is now 25/1 in places, and I think he is worth a risk at that price.
He was a progressive performer on the flat in Ireland, 18 months ago – so much so, that Gigginstown paid a fair amount for him.
He did win a novice hurdle last season – though that was in fortuitous circumstances and it is fair to say he was generally disappointing.
They off loaded him in the summer and he was picked up by Peter Winks for a relaive pittance.
He’s not a trainer I know anything about - but he seems to run a very small operation.
Little surprise then, that Hartside seemed to need his first run for him – but them improved quite markedly on his second outing.
My guess is that he will improve again further today – and that makes him potentially interesting, at a very big price.
Clearly, there are a lot of unknowns in opposition – but we do know that Hartside was decent on the flat and therefore has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current 109 rating over hurdles.
A very strong mention !!
2:10
This is undoubtedly the race of the day – and I have to say that on initial inspection, I had no intention of tipping in it…
There are 13 runners – and victory for almost any of them, would come as no great surprise.
On the flip side, pretty much every runner has also got a fairly big question mark against it – classically then, a watching race…
However, price is everything in this game, so I had a quick look at the outsiders…
When I looked last night, Triptico was the complete outsider of the field – a general 20/1 shot and 25/1 in a place.
Examining his form, that price seemed wrong to me – and by a fair degree.
He is a young, progressive horse, who has only had 11 life time runs.
He has been placed on every outing bar 1 - which was over 3 miles (a trip he probably found too far).
He has run well on his seasonal debut every year – and has form with some serious horses (Highland Lodge, Harry Topper and Same Difference, to name just 3).
He also has a verdict over the favourite for todays race, Noble Legend – and is better off at the weights with that one.
He will be well suited by todays trip and ground and is the only runner on todays card for both Evan Williams and Paul Moloney.
In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…
At 25/1, he would have been 0.5pt EW – at 16/1 I’ve made him 0.25pt.
He should probably be staked somewhere between the 2…
As I said, I could give a chance to the majority of the opposition.
Mon Perrain could easily bounce back to form of a fair enough mark; I would expect Easter Meteor to run much better than he did at Cheltenham (where an early mistake did for his chances); Cantlow clearly has potential off his current mark – whilst Duke of Lucca is handicapped to win and will doubtless be given an aggressive ride over his minimum trip.
Noble Legend and Green Wizard are both very progressive – whilst Silver Roque could be given a definite chance, if his stable were in better form.
I have bigger question marks over the remainder (class, trip or fitness) – but even so, there are enough dangers to leave me anything but confident.
That said, I do think Triptico represent value – and ultimately, that is what it is all about !
0.25pt EW Triptico 16/1
In the following race, it looks significant that Tom Scudamore is prepared to leg it over from Uttoxeter to ride Ainsi Fideles.
That said, it looks even more significant that he is then apparently going to leg it back to ride Smiles for Miles in the last there !
Don’t let that one pass if he is on board.
In the finale at Wetherby, I was quite interested in Lookout Mountain for Jonjo.
Keep an eye of the mounts of Mauice Linehan this season – I still think he could go places.
The horse was 4/1 early – which was too short. 7/1 is now available and that is far more appealing…
Uttoxeter
Not quite such a good card – but definitely one worth watching with an eye to the future…
Milord sets a fair standard in the opener – and 7/2 is a fair price.
Katnapping is a horse that always interest me…
He runs in the 1:50 – though presumably so that Long Run isn’t Sam Waley Cohen’s first ride in months, when he turns up for the Charlie Hall xhase at Wetherby tomorrow.
The best race on the card is the novice chase at 2:20.
It is possible to make a case for the 3 main protagonist – but, provided he jumps OK, I would expect Raya Star to have a bit too much class…
Forest Walker was the nearest I got to a tip at Uttoxeter – but not at 5/2…
I think he could be a lot better than his mark – but he has got to prove that and the opposition isn’t a walk over.
He may hack up – but at the prices, I’m prepared to watch…
Finally, the bumper, which as I said earlier, I would expect Smiles for Miles to take some beating in – provided Tom Scudamore is on board…
Down Royal
The high light of the card, is the seasonal reappearance of Jezki…
This race shouldn’t really tell us too much about him (other than confirming he still has 4 legs and an engine !).
I would be very surprised if he were beaten – and would choose Flaxen Flare to follow him home.
The other race that interests me on the card, is the novice chase at 3:10.
Teelin Star was in the process of running a very big race, when he fell at Wexford last time.
If this was less competitive I could have been interested in him – but it is competitive !
Seefood was probably the best of his opponents over hurdles – but Rye Martini looks the sort to make his name over fences.
Very much a race to watch for the future.
Here’s hoping for a great start to the new season !
TVB.
Tips
Weth 2:10 Triptico 16/1
Mentions
Weth 1:40 Hartside
Weth 3:55 Lookout Mountain
Uttox 12:50 Milord
Uttox 3:30 Forest Walker
Uttox 4:05 Smiles for Miles
DR 3:10 Rye Martini
Hi folks, don't know about you lot but I'm buzzing about the start of our 2013-2014 journey with Andrew through the NH season. On a side note as you may have noticed that boylesports were one of the best priced on our very first tip of the season, if any of you are like me Andy has had my Boyles account closed a long time ago ;-). There is an alternative though, www.betmclean.com
ReplyDeleteTheir prices and website are controlled by boylesports so are identical although they are laying the bets and have more balls to actually take on a punter . Their app is available on all smart phones too. Also if you live in the north of Ireland you can deposit and withdraw immediately in any of A McLean bookmakers offices, there are approximately 60 of them all throughout the north.
Best of luck folks, let's hope it's a good one like the last two years.
Peace out! :-)
Ciaran
What a start !!!
ReplyDeleteHad a small interest because of your write up , thanks.
Was referring to Hartside above.
ReplyDeleteLooked liked Triptico is ready for a step up in trip ?
Thanks for the info Ciaran - I'm sure some of the guys will find it very useful...
ReplyDeleteI realised which one you were referring to Stephen !!
Triptico could probably handle a step up in trip - but ultimately, I think he was caught out today by a touch of rustiness and by not being slick enough over the obstacles.
It's always a danger at this time of year and I would expect him to perform better next time out (not that he ran badly today !).
TVB.