Tuesday 31 December 2013

Review of the day

I think it’s fair to say that Come on Annie was just as good a bet as Top Dancer ;)

She never looked in the slightest trouble – and I even felt she was given a canny ride by trainer/jockey who ensured, by keeping the wining distance reasonable, that the handicapper won’t be able to over-react and she may well therefore be able to follow up…

If only it were always that simple !

That was it for the day, so I’ll be back bright and early tomorrow morning, with the first offerings of the new year !

I hope you all have an enjoyable evening – whatever you may be up to.

I’ll do my bit by not issuing any tips before 8:30 in the morning !

Until then…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 31st

3 meetings today, at Uttoxeter and Warwick in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland…

As I said on Sunday, it was my intention to take off yesterday and today – to give me a bit of a break after a manic Christmas period.

I had it set in my mind, that the only reason I would tip, on either day, was if there was a horse running, which I simply had to tip. And unfortunately for me (!) – such a horse is running this afternoon..!

With hindsight, I maybe shouldn’t have taken yesterday off either !
I don’t know how many of you followed the days half hearted mentions (one or two, I suspect) – but boy did they run well…

Charingworth only finished third, but he traded heavily odds on in running as he mounted a serious challenge between the last two fences;
whilst Possibly Flora went even closer at Taunton.
I was attracted to her at the morning price of 16/1 – so couldn’t believe the SP of 33/1 !
I actually backed her at 60 on Betdaq, so was gutted to see her unable to get past Milosam…
That’s the same Milosam who denied Pod by a short head last month, thereby costing us 9 points. He wasn’t on my Christmas card this year – he’s likely to be getting hate mail from me in the New Year.
For those who kept the faith, Across the Bay ran out a very game winner of the distance chase at Haydock (which was a horrible race to watch, with 2 horses breaking legs).
All in all then, despite what Friday and Saturday seemed to suggest, it appears that I remain in the groove.

Anyway, my intention was to keep this short !
One tip – one explanation – nothing else !!


Uttoxeter

1:10

Prior to today, I would say that Top Dancer was the strongest tip that I’ve put up this season.
Everything was in his favour when he ran at Newbury and I struggled to see how he was going to get beaten…
Well, I think Come on Annie all but matches him today…
When I’m looking for a horse, I have a number of ‘boxes’ that I like to see ticks in. The normal things like trip, ground, fitness, form etc.
Come on Annie has quite literally gets a tick in every one – and her case is better than that…
Last time out, she ran third at Uttoxeter in the race won by Ut Majeur Aulmes. This was the race that provided us with Iron Butterfly on Sunday – and is a race that I’m pretty sure was very hot…
If there was one horse to take out of that race, then it was probably Come on Annie.
She hadn’t run for over 6 months prior to it – and the ground would have been plenty quick enough for her – yet she was still there with every chance, approaching the last…
I would expect her to come on for that run – and the ground should be more suitable for her today.
But more than that, todays race looks a much, much weaker contest…
In simple terms, that was a class 4 race – whilst today she is running in a class 5 contest.
Furthermore, if I look through the runners in todays field, I can only see 2 or 3, who I think could give her any sort of a race.
For the conservative amongst you, if you really want to seal this bet, I would suggest saving your stake on Cropley and Lucky Prince. Those 2 could feasibly be dangers – if they show marked improvement on recent runs.
Aside from them however, I’m struggling !
If she runs to form (and gets round OK) and the others run to form, then Come on Annie will win – it really is as simple as that.
Ofcourse the actual race won’t be that simple; there are 8 hurdles to negotiate in heavy ground – plus luck in running will be required (and that is assuming neither of the 2 ‘dangers’ show improved form).
However, on balance, I wouldn’t be prepared to lay her at much more that 6/4 – so double those odds has to be a gift…
Doesn’t it ?!?

1pt win Come on Annie 5/2


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.


Tips

Uttx 1:10 Come on Annie 5/2

Sunday 29 December 2013

Review of the day

Boy did we need that !

It seems a bit silly really…
As I said this morning, the month has been going really well – but the last couple of days had seen a wobble. Another losing day today, wouldn’t have been great.

And it looked likely – it looked highly likely, approaching the final flight, in the final race at Doncaster.
But Paul Moloney didn’t give in – and Iron Butterfly dug deep into her reserves of stamina and courage and they got up !
Hurray !
That sort of thing rarely happens with TVB tips (as you all know only too well !).

We are normally on the one that gets nailed – or the one that doesn’t quite manage to get up.
But not this afternoon – not in the last race of the day, anyhow !!

Ofcourse, the first tip on the day to run – Western Jo – performed far more as we have come accustomed to TVB tips performing…
He came to challenge at the last, but jumped to his left, losing ground and momentum – and couldn’t recover the deficit.
That was a little irritating…
The other tip in the race, Don’t be Late, also ran a fair race. Which was more than the betting suggested would be the case…

I thought 6/1 was quite generous – so a BSP of 14 suggests that someone knew he was going to get home today.
Expect him to be dropped back half a mile next time out…

The other 2 tips running at Doncaster didn’t cover themselves in glory…
Regal Presence travelled OK to half way in the handicap chase - but was soon under pressure and ultimately finished well beaten.
I could see no obvious excuse for his disappointing run.

It was a similar story with Ballyhooley Boy.
He couldn’t muster enough pace to get close to challenge and was ultimately well beaten (and my suspicions were right, Charlie Poste does ride like a bag of potatoes !).

Over at Limerick, Pencilhimin, the remaining tip of the day, gave us a roller coaster of a ride in the handicap hurdle.
I was concerned when he wouldn’t settle early and his jockey, Robbie McNally almost certainly did the right thing by letting him stride on.
However, that just made him a sitting duck for the opposition.
He saved a bit down the back straight, before kicking on again – but he looked in trouble when Zekarya ranged upside approaching the second last.
However, when that one crumpled on landing it looked as if luck was smiling on us.
But no, hard as he tried, Pencilhimin had already given his all and he was worn down from the last by Carrow Queen.
He probably didn’t deserve to lose – but then again, he probably didn’t deserve to win either !

Elsewhere on a crazy afternoon, Hurricane Fly showed that there was still life in the old dog, by quickening away from the field approaching the last.
Jezki was closing as the line approached – but the Hurricane had enough is reserve to hold him off.
They won’t take his crown away without a fight.

In the Topaz chase, Morning Assembly was mugged after the last, by Carlingford Lough.
I was a little disappointed that he lost – but it shouldn’t be forgotten that he is very young and inexperienced.
Once again he jumped beautifully – and I thought Ruby gave him a very considerate ride…
His jumping will be a major asset at Cheltenham – and I am still more than happy with our position on him…

So there ends a very busy post Christmas period.
We are about level over it (I think !) – so its’ not been a disaster.
That said, it has provided a bit of reality check, following on from the golden period that preceded it.
This game is never easy – no matter how I may make it look at times !

I will almost certainly take the next 2 days off.
There is some fair racing tomorrow - and doubtless it will be similar on Tuesday – but I need a brief dose of ‘real life’ !

I’ll be back on new years day whatever – plus Thursday and Friday – though I’m way at the weekend…

Still, that’s all in the future – let’s bask in the glory of Paul Moloney and the Iron Butterfly, for a day or two first J

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 29th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – plus the final day of the Christmas festivals at Leopardstown and Limerick, in Ireland…

I’m not sure where they’ve pulled it from, but Doncaster have come up with a tremendous card for this afternoon…
5 thoroughly absorbing handicaps are complemented by a couple of decent novice events – well done them !!
Most of my effort last night went into that card, because for all of it’s grade 1 glamour, the Leopardstown card has little punting appeal – and I was only ever going to be interested in 1 horse at Limerick (it was simply a question of whether the price was acceptable – and it was, just !).
The meeting at Kelso barely registered with me – I just spent a few minutes looking at what had taken Jason Maguire there, instead of to Doncaster, for a seemingly decent ride on Real Milan...

We’ve ended up with tips in 5 races – which is slightly more than I initially thought. But I’ve kept the stakes generally small – so it’s again a case of spreading wide and thin.
Hopefully we’ll manage to catch one (or two !) today – and get things back on track.
It’s been a great month so far – let’s just hope the past couple of days are simply a blip !!

Here’s the rationale for todays tips…

Doncaster

1:15

Cowards Close is the interesting one here…
An unexposed novice, trained by Paul Nichols, running off a mark of just 125 – when one of his 2 victories from last season suggests he could easily be rated a few pounds higher…
He could well take this – but is priced accordingly and there is always a danger that a  horse like him can be over-rated…
Strictly on form, I think Don’t be Late is the horse to beat.
He is also a novice but has been running in open handicaps since May and has racked up a fair few runs in that period.
However he seems to still be progressing and returned from a 3 month break to finish a highly creditable third in a very decent class 2 event at Newbury last time out.
That race was over 2m4f, but Don’t be Late was running on strongly at the end, suggesting that the step up to todays 3mile trip, was exactly what he wanted…
Western Jo is a more speculative punt…
He will be having only his third run over hurdles today and after wining a novice event on his hurdling debut last April, was well fancied for a handicap hurdle on his seasonal debut at Bangor last month.
All seemed to be going fine, as he ranged up along side the leader rounding the home turn – but then he went out like the preverbal light !
Whether it was the trip; the ground; the fact it was his seasonal debut – or some other reason, I don’t know – but it did look a little strange.
Obviously there is a risk tipping him on the back of such a run – but I think that has been factored into the price (and some !).
Certainly, with the connections he’s got – and on the back of the form he showed last season, he would be a fraction of today price, if he hadn’t run at Bangor.
I’m just hoping that run can be attributed to a combination of it being his seasonal debut and the soft ground – because if it can, he could create a surprise this afternoon…

0.25pt win Don’t be Late 6/1
0.25pt win Western Jo 16/1


2:20

Just so you know, I think Regal Presence might be something of a nut case, so we could be in for an interesting run with him !
That said, he has plenty of talent, to go with his quirks, so we’ve just got to hope that his natural ability proves greater than his wayward tendencies…
That was case when he opened his account over hurdles at Ascot, last April.
He was a 33/1 shot that day, but was pulling double over his rivals for most of the final circuit.
Having gone on down the back straight, he then looked highly likely to throw in the towel at any point – but he didn’t…
He eventually won by just a couple of lengths - but it was clear that he had the ability to have won by much more…
For whatever reason, following a fair enough debut run over fences, the handicapper has chosen to drop Regal Presence by 6lb putting him on a mark just 3lb higher than the one he was successful from at Ascot.
I suspect that might be a mistake on his behalf – and hopefully Regal Presence will capitalise on it this afternoon…
The other thing that strikes me as a little odd in todays race, is that Adian Coleman is riding Regal Presence even though Venetia has a runner in the race.
I’ve no idea why that would be – but the suggestion is that it’s a positive thing !
Let’s hope so !!

0.5 pt win Regal Presence 8/1


2:55

This is a cracking little race – and there were 3 in it that caught my eye: Figaro, Little Pop and Ballyhooley Boy…
Figaro made yesterday’s Challow hurdle winner, Captain Cutter, pull out all the stops at Market Rasen last time out. If the form of that race can be taken at face value, he will win today. It’s certainly not surprising that he is favourite…
Little Pop also ran very well last time (despite his finishing position). He led to the second last in an ultra competitive novice handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting.
I would expect him to run very well in this lesser event…
However both Figaro and Little Pop ran really well last time, when they were able to dominate their fields - clearly it will not be possible of both of them to do that today !
Ballyhooley Boy is the third member of todays field, who caught my eye last time out…
He ran a very respectable fourth in one of the strongest novice events of the season so far, at Cheltenham December meeting…
The race was won by Ballyalton, with Garde La Victoire in second and Cocktails at Dawn, third.
The race was run at a bit of a crawl, so Ballyhooley Boys finishing position might flatter him – though I’m not so sure…
I’ve watched the replay a few times – and either Charlie Poste rides like a bag of potatoes or he was doing his level best to prevent Ballyhooley Boy from finishing too close to some very talented rivals (and thereby ruin his handicap mark).
In fairness to Poste (!) I suspect it might be the former – but at 10/1, I’m prepared to take the risk that Ballyhooley Boy is far better than his current handicap mark might suggest…

0.25pt win Ballyhooley Boy 10/1


3:25

I could be wrong here (it does happen occasionally !) – but I think I might have found one with Iron Butterfly…
First things first, this is not the most competitive race ever run (as is often the case with these mares hurdle events).
The favourite, Favourite Girl, was a fair winner last time out (beating Hartside) but she has been raised 5lb for that win and doesn’t set an insurmountable standard…
Iron Butterfly only finished sixth on her most recent run at Uttoxeter – and on the face of it, off the same mark today, there seems little reason to be siding with her.
But I think there is…
Firstly, I reckon that the Uttoxeter race, will turn out to be a very hot contest. It was won in imperious fashion by Ut Majeur Aulmes, with Mystifiable (whom I tipped that day) in second.
Only fourth placed Leviathan has subsequently come out and tested the form – but he was a very good winner of a decent race at Haydock.
The Uttoxeter race was over 2 miles, and Iron Butterfly finished very strongly to take sixth place (after getting a little outpaced).
As a proven stayer on the flat (she won over 2 miles in October) there is every likelihood that she will need in excess of that distance over hurdles, so todays 2m4f trip could well to see improvement in her form.
If that is the case, then against mainly limited rivals, I think she will take a lot of beating…

0.75pt win Iron Butterfly 9/1


I really wanted to have a crack at the 2:40 race – but I couldn’t find the right horse to go with…
Initially I was drawn to Next Sensation (even though he is favourite) – but I have some worries about his fencing technique.
Next it was Doynosaur. She jumps very well – but I just wonder if she is quite up to this class…
I then moved on to Royal Guardsman – and if forced, I would side with him. However, he just might find 2 miles on quick ground enough of a speed test…
I couldn’t completely rule out 2 or 3 others, so on balance, it had to be a no tip race (but definitely one to watch closely !)


Limerick

2:15

Despite the massive field (although, 3 withdrawals will help with that), this really looks a 3 or 4 runner race to me (as is often the case with these Irish big field, low grade handicaps).
Pencilhimin is a horse that I’ve literally been waiting all season to tip (in fact I did tip him earlier in the month, but he was withdrawn in the morning).
He is clearly a difficult to horse to train, as is demonstrated by the fact that he was 8 years old when he made his racecourse debut.
That was at Limerick in March and he absolutely bolted up in a heavy ground maiden, looking a decent horse in the process…
He was given a mark of 106 for that win, which looked fair enough, and was sent off an 8/1 shot for a competitive 20 runner handicap at the Fairyhouse Easter festival on his next run.
However, he ran no sort of a race that day and was pulled up…
His next – and most recent outing – was his seasonal debut in November, again at Fairyhouse.
He ran an eye-catching race that day, to finish fifth in what was a good race for the grade.
He’s actually been dropped a pound for that run – but I think that is immaterial.
The question is simply, whether he is in the physical shape to run his race today.
If he is, then with only 2 or 3 realistic rivals to overcome, I think he will take a lot of beating…

0.5pt win Pencilhimin 5/1 (pre R4)



Leopardstown

The Leopardstown card is more for the purists, than the bettors…
There are 2 cracking grade 1 events, which will doubtless have repercussions on the rest of the season…

Firstly, there is the Ryanair hurdle at 2:00, where Hurricane Fly takes on young pretenders, Our Connor and Jezki…
It’s impossible to argue that Hurricane Fly has been a tremendous horse over the years – but he will be 10 years old in a few days time.
More than that, he’s generally been beating up the same rivals - and this season there are some new kids on the block – and they look seriously talented…
Ofcourse, today will be their acid test, as they take on a proven champion – but it’s a proven champion who is probably past his peak.
It’s impossible to be dogmatic about the outcome – but less so about the ‘value’…
Hurricane Fly is too short in my book, at even money. He maybe deserves to be edging favouritism – but only just.
I think Our Connor has the most to prove (even though he could be something special).
I would therefore make Jezki the value call at 3/1…
Whether he will win, is a different matter – and victory for any of the 3 wouldn’t be a big surprise.
Certainly a race to really look forward to….

Almost as fascinating, is the Topaz chase at 3:05…
Of course, we have an interest in this, with todays favourite, Morning Assembly, whom we have secured at 25/1 for the Sun Alliance chase…
He is already about half that price, and victory for him today would doubtless shade a few more points off his price…
Do I think he will win – yes, I do.
He’s my big hope for the festival and I won’t hear of defeat for him.
That said, todays race will be tough – really tough.
Bright New Dawn, Carlingford Lough and Foxrock represent serious rivals.
But I honestly think Morning Assembly is the real deal – and I’ll be disappointed if he’s not up to the job.


Just a quick mention for the first race on the card, where I toyed with tipping Love Rory..
I’ve always been a fan of his and he finally came good last time out over the cross country course at Punchestown.
If he can translate that form to the conventional fences today, then he should take the beating off a mark of 113.
He was 9/1 early and I would have taken a chance at that price – but the margin isn’t quite there at 6/1 in an 18 runner chase…
He’s therefore just a mention instead…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.



Tips


Donc 1:15 Don’t be Late 6/1
Donc 1:15 Western Jo 16/1
Donc 2:20 Regal Presence 8/1
Donc 2:55 Ballyhooley Boy 10/1
Donc 3:25 Iron Butterfly 9/1
Lim 2:15 Pencilhimin 5/1 (pre R4)


Mentions

Donc 12:40 Royal Guardsman (O)
Leop 12:35 Love Rory (P)
Leop 2:00 Jezki (O)

Saturday 28 December 2013

Review of the day

I think that today just has to go down as one of those days…

I didn’t feel that comfortable with it this morning – and my concerns over how it might turn out, proved well founded…

In the Welsh National, Merry King ran a fair enough race to finished fifth – ultimately, he just wasn’t good enough…
As I feared, it was the jumping of Well Refreshed that wasn’t good enough and he was pulled up down the back straight having made one mistake too many…

The following race was probably the hardest of the day to take…
I could cope with Tranquil Sea getting beaten – he ran an honourable race in defeat.
But why did it have to be Renard that beat him?!
He was probably my most confident bet of the season so far, when unplaced at Cheltenham 2 runs ago…
He’s since won twice - today off a mark 6lb higher than at Cheltenham.
These horses can certainly make you look stupid L

Earlier in the afternoon, Sarabad ran a reasonable race to finish 7th at Leopardstown.
He was never really put in the race – but ran on well enough.
Unfortunately, this means he will have to stay on my radar !!

It was good to see Bobs Worth bounce back to form in the Lexus – particularly after the incident with Sprinter Sacre yesterday. The sport needs its stars…
Lord Windermere never really threatened to get involved at the business end of the race – I suspect he’s not quite up to Gold Cup class…

The Top Pick, Moorlands Mist, ran poorly at Chepstow, despite ultimately, being very well backed.
I think it is fair to assume that he didn’t handle the desperate conditions…

As for the mentions, then Saroque was a good winner at Newbury; but it wasn’t so good for Jaunty Journey in the next race on the card, as he tried to kick every fence out of the way !; Oscar Rock just didn't look good enough in the Challow hurdle – and as suspected, Kazlian found the 2m5f trip, a bit too far…

Over at Chepstow, something seemed to go wrong with Xaarcet, who was pulled up before the home turn.

Whilst at Limerick, Louisville Lip fell at the fourth, which just left ‘nearly’ tip, Glenqeust…
He ran an honourable race to finish second - but was no match for comfortable winner, Playing…

So, all in all, a disappointing day…

Good job there’s always tomorrow ;)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 5 meetings today: Newbury, Chepstow and Catterick in the UK – plus day 3 of the festivals at Leopardstown and Limerick, in Ireland…

Today has to go down as the least inspiring Saturday of the season so far…
OK, there is the Welsh National at Chepstow and the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown – but if you take out those 2 races, it is pretty poor stuff – particularly for a Saturday…

I guess to an extent, it is to be expected.
There was top class racing both yesterday and on Boxing day – and there is some decent stuff tomorrow and on New years day.
Ultimately, there are only so many good class horses – and they just won’t stretch that far…

Ofcourse, you don’t necessarily need good class horses for tipping/betting purposes – but a lot of todays races also don’t have the shape required for betting in.

Anyway, it’s just one day in a long old season , so I need to keep it in perspective !

We’ve ended up with 4 small tips on the day – plus the ante post tip for Merry King.
Here’s the rationale for them – plus a few words on some of the days other races…


Chepstow

2:35

The presence of Tidal Bay has given the Welsh National field bit of a lop sided look…
He heads the weights on 11st12, with last years runner up, Teaforthree, next in on 11st2lb. There is then a big gap to the rest of the field, headed by Hey Big Spender on 10st7lb…
As a result, the bottom 8 horses in the race are carrying more weight than the official handicapper would have given them – not a great place for them to be starting from…
These races are difficult enough to win as it is, I’m always loathed to go for a horse carrying more weight than it should be doing…
That’s not the case for either of the selections in the race: Well Refreshed and Merry King.
I tipped Merry King just under a month ago, after he had run fifth in the Hennessy. That struck me as a very good trial for todays race – and now that he’s got the soft underfoot conditions he craves, I am  more than happy with our position on him.
I’ve added Well Refreshed today, because I see him as the biggest danger to Merry King.
As I’ve mentioned before, I was really taken by this horse last year - and if he could only learn to jump properly, I think he could prove himself much better than his current rating of 139…
It is testament to his natural ability, that despite whacking 3 or 4 fences a race, he has still managed to 4 of his last 8 races.
He probably would also have won at Sandown last time out – but he made at least 3 shocking blunders.
In fairness, Sandown is a tough course to jump round – so I take some positives out of the fact that he didn’t end up on the floor there !
Hopefully, he will manage to (somehow) get round Chepstow as well – and if he does, I think even Merry King might struggle to contain him.
Admirable character though he is, I just can’t have Tidal Bay off a mark of 163, 4 days short of his 13th birthday; whilst Highland Lodge strikes me as the kind of horse best caught fresh…
You have to respect the chances of Goonyella – though he still has a fair bit to prove and is short enough in the betting as a consequence.
Two outsiders that I could see running well, are Knock a Hand and Goulanes.
Whilst those who like to play in running could do worse than backing Ace High pre-race and laying off rounding the home turn (before his stamina is fully questioned)

0.5pt win Well Refreshed 9/1
0.5pt win Merry King 16/1 (ante-post)


3:10

This looks a near impossible puzzle to solve – but Tranquil Sea is handicapped to win it, on his best form and will have underfoot conditions to suit…
Ofcourse, as I’ve said before , the reason horses tend to get well handicapped is because they are in decline.
Tranquil Sea has been a top class animal for 4 seasons now – provided the ground is riding soft.
As a former winner of both the Paddy Power Gold cup and the grade 1 John Durkan chase, he is literally thrown in off a mark of 139 today.
Whilst it is true that he has not shown his best form for a little while, he did run very well, as recently as April, when he was runner up in a decent handicap chase at the Punchestown festival.
That run showed that a lot of ability is still there…
Tranquil Sea transferred to the stable of Warren Greatrex over the summer and makes his debut for him today off a mark 5lb lower than his Punchestown run.
He has shown himself in the past, capable of running well first time out – and with his 12th birthday on the horizon, I can’t see any reason why Greatrex wouldn’t have him ready to perform today.
Apparently the horse has had his breathing tweaked, which again suggests he should be primed for today.
Of his opponents, top weight Maile De Bievre is the one that interested me most…
Now rated 20lb lower than when making his UK debut  earlier this year, he could potentially laugh at his rivals – if he can reproduce his French form.
However, he has already been given a few chances – and simply the margin wasn't there in his price to take a risk…
It was in the price of Tranquil Sea, so he is the one we are on.

0.5pt win Tranquil Sea 16/1


I was half tempted by Xaarcet in the 1:00 race…
We were on him last time at Sandown when he ran disappointingly. However, the quick ground and relatively sharp track seemed not to suit him that day.
A multiple winner over hurdles in the heavy, he should be much better suited by todays test.
However, he is best priced 11/2 – and with it hard to eliminate many of his rivals, there just isn’t the margin to make him a tip…

In the following race, despite a 10lb hike in the weights, I still think that Moorlands Mist is the one to beat…
I tried to find something to beat him – but I didn’t have much joy.
Half cases can be made for quite a few in the field – but I think he is on a steep upward curve.
The big doubt, is how he will handle the very heavy ground – but if he goes through it, I think he will win…
He was a best price 3/1 in a place this morning – which was too tight.
He is now 4/1 and that would have been tempting.
I’ll make him a Top Pick instead !!


Leopardstown

12:50

This is not a race I intended to play in – but at 25/1, in a first time tongue tie, I just had to take a tiny risk on Sarabad…
He is clearly a horse with significant ability and he really caught my eye with the way he travelled through the race on his seasonal debut at Naas.
I clearly wasn’t he only one who spotted him that day as he was backed down to 11/4 second favourite in a 12 runner handicap at Clonmel next time out.
However, he disappointed that day – and it was the same story on his most recent outing at Navan (when he was again well backed).
The horse travels supremely well through his races – but then just doesn’t find for pressure…
Classically, that is the sign of a breathing problem – so it looks very significant that Willie Mullins reaches for a tongue tie today.
I tend to be a little wary of horses with tongue ties because even if the equipment does sort out the problem  – you still know there is an underlying problem (which could resurface at any point).
Furthermore, the tongue tie might not cure the problem regardless – in which case you’ve got your hopes up for nothing !
However, there is always the chance that the tongue tie will work the oracle – and if that happens, then Sarabad isn’t a 25/1 shot, off just 10st in this particular race !
Fingers crossed then !!
0.25pt win Sarabad 25/1

2:55

I’ve got top be honest, whilst I think todays Lexus chase is there for the winning, I’m not sure which horse is going to be winning it…
The thing is, there are big question marks over the top two in the betting: Bobs Worth  and Sir Des Champs.
First and second in last seasons Gold Cup, things haven’t go quite so well for them this campaign…
Bobs Worth was a massive disappointment at Haydock, whilst Sir Des Champs took a crashing fall at Punchestown.
Ofcouse both might bounce back to form today – but on the back of their recent runs, it would be a brave man who supported them at such cramped odds…
If you take those 2 out of the race, then it looks quite light weight.
Unioniste is third favourite for the race, but he is held by Lord Windermere on their running in last seasons Sun Alliance chase at the Cheltenham festival.
Lord Windermere has only run once since wining that race – when comfortably beaten in the Hennessey. However he was well backed that day and things didn’t go for him during the race. I think that run can be ignored…
Even without it however, there are question marks in my mind as to whether he will be good enough to win today.
However, there are question marks over every horse in the race – and at last we are getting a decent price on a horse with potential to improve…
The other one to catch my eye, is the ex French Rubi Ball.
He was a disappointment on his Irish debut over hurdles – but it looks significant that Willie Mullins now pitches him in a grade 1 chase.
That said, if he was really fancied, I just can’t believe he would be a 14/1 chance…
I might be wrong, but I couldn’t bring myself to tip him.
Instead, we’ll stick with Lord Windermere. Hardly the most rock solid of tips – but worth a small play at the prices…

0.25pt win Lord Windermere 10/1


Newbury

What a disappointing card…
There are barely any runners – and I found it nearly impossible to find an angle into any of the races, that hadn’t been covered by the bookmakers…

In terms of fancies, then I would select Saroque in the 12:45 race.
He should handle the ground, no problem – but there is little margin in a quote of 4/1 in a tight 6 horse race.

There are question marks over just about every runner in the 1:15 race.
At the prices, it might be worth a tiny play on Jaunty Journey. He will love the ground and trip – though he has been woefully out of form…

The 1:45 race looks interesting enough – but nearly impossible to solve with any confidence…
Oscar Rock could possibly be different class – but I won’t be taking 7/2 to find out.
the most solid option is probably Kaki De La Pree. He will handle the ground and should therefore run his race – but it will be no surpriose if a couple are too good for him…

Over half a mile shorter, I could have been very interested in Kazlian in the 2:50 race – but I’m not sure that his stamina will last out 2m5f in the very heavy ground…
Time will tell, I guess…


Limerick

As I mentioned, I got very close to tipping Glenquest in the 3:15 race…
He has been running well in better class contests than this – and todays 3 miles on heavy ground will be perfect for him…
However, his recent runs have been with head gear in place – and it is removed today. Also, he carries top weight – and if connections really wanted to go for it, I think a claimer would  be on board rather than Adrian Heskin…
In short, the subtle signs tell me not today – and at 8/1 there isn’t sufficient margin to ignore them…

Finally, Louisville Lip might not win the 2:40 race – but I suspect he will run better than his 20/1 odds would imply…
Maybe a back pre-race to lay in-running option…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.



Tips

Chep 2:35 Well Refreshed 9/1
Chep 2:35 Merry King (16/1 AP)
Chep 3:10 Tranquil Sea 16/1
Leop 12:50 Sarabad 25/1
Leop 2:55 Lord Windermere 10/1

*Mentions

Chep 1:00 Xaarcet (P)
Newb 12:45 Saroque (P)
Newb 1:15 Jaunty Journey (S)
Newb 1:45 Oscar Rock (P)
Newb 2:50 Kazlain (C)
Lim 2:40 Louisville Lip (S)
Lim 3:15 Glenquest (O)

**Top Picks

Chep 1:30 Moorlands Mist



* Mentions are horses that I fancy – but not strongly enough to make them tips…
The main reason they are not tips, is put in brackets after the horses name:
P – Price
O – Opposition
S – Speculative
C – Conditions

** Top Picks are horses I expect to win ! The price is immaterial and the hope is that they will produce a profit, just backing at BSP (Betfair Starting Price)

Review of the day

Well, I guess we were due a correction of some sort…

I’ve been riding a wave for the best part of a month now – but today, I definitely came back down to earth…

9 selections across 7 races – and not a winner amongst them L

In fairness though, the bare numbers don’t really tell the story…

For whatever reason (coincidence, I guess), pretty much every horse I tipped today managed to lose its ability to jump…

The tone was set with the first tip to run: Chestertern. At the very first fence, he jumped too big and landed steeply, seemingly unnerving himself.
He continued for a few more fences – but was pulled up before half way…
Scholastica managed to stumble early in her race as well – and another bad mistake before half way meant she too was always fighting a losing battle.
The jockey of Indian Outlook did well to maintain the partnership when he made a significant blunder in front of the stands; and it was similar story with Forest Walker, back over at Kempton.
The day of jumping errors was then completed, when Milord took a crashing fall at the fourth last hurdle, when still leading and seemingly going well enough…

5 horses – 5 race ending mistakes. It was as simple as that…

In the past few weeks, we have been bailed out by the speculative selections – but not today…
Alder Mairi was ridden like a proven stayer at Kempton (and she isn’t); Gambling Girl, settled in the hood at Leopardstown – but seemed to hate the ground; whilst American Spin ran like a horse in serious decline…

So 8 down, just the 1 to go…

And that one was Cause of Causes in the hyper competitive Paddy Power chase.
He jumped just fine – and travelled just fine – and looked likely to collect as he ranged up alongside Rockyaboya with 50 yards to go.
But he couldn’t get past – and was beaten by a short head.
Close, but no cigar L

A victory for him would have put the day in profit – but it wasn’t to be and instead we took our biggest loss in a good while…

But these things happen – particularly in NH racing, where the ability to negotiate obstacles quickly and safely, is absolutely key…

At least the Top Pick, Baile Anrai, managed to snatch a most unlikely looking victory in the shadows of the post…

And yet, despite all the drama surrounding the runs of the various TVB tips, the day is likely to be remembered by most of you, for a different reason…

The imperious Sprinter Sacre was pulled up sharply, by Barry Gerraghty after the 7th fence, at Kempton.
There seems to be uncertainty over precisely what the problem was – a fibrillating heart seems the most likely cause.
Whatever though it’s not good.
The horse had looked unbeatable – but in a few strides, he looked vanquished.
Hopefully he will come back as good as ever – but there must be big doubts…

He has been a NH treasure – but today we saw what a fine line these equine athletes tread.
We have to treasure them whilst they are around – today reminded us of that…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 27th

Another busy day, with 5 NH meetings, at Kempton, Leicester and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland…

As you may have gathered, there was a distinct chance of me going mad, tipping this morning !
I had 9 possible races – which really is as many as I would ever want to consider…
Ultimately, I tipped in 7 of the races – which is still a lot.
However, I just feel that the racing is there to be tipped in today – and that’s not always the case…

Whether we’ll be successful, is of course a different matter. However, win, lose or draw, I am happy with each tip I’ve issued – so let’s just hope the run of form continues…

Anyway, no time for a pre-amble today – it’s straight on to the rationale – starting with a tremendous card at Kempton…


Kempton

2:00

I do like this race, because I feel it is one which, if you work through, the winner will drop out…!
In theory, I could make a case for the top 4 in the betting – however, the race conditions, enable me to narrow that down to one.
Utipie Des Bordes has run a couple of very good races recently, but she is relatively small mare and I just think that 11st7lb (including her riders claim) on very soft ground, is going to be too much of an ask for her today…
Mickie might also struggle with her relatively big weight – plus she has been raised 7lb for a hard fought victory last time out…
There shouldn’t be a lot between Mrs Peachy and Scholastica, based on their last time out runs – but if you watch that race, there is no doubt which one you would want to be on over todays extra half mile – and on heavy ground…
Scholastica was fairly eating up the hill that day, whilst Mrs Peachy appeared to have had enough (though a bad mistake at he second last didn’t help her chances).
Of the others in the race, the one that catches my eye, is Alder Mairi…
She ran in the same race as Scholastica and Mrs Peachy last time out and actually appeared to be going best of all, entering the home straight.
However, she weakened from the second last hurdle and eventually finished a well beaten seventh.
On the face of it, there appears little reasons why she will be able to turn around the form today - despite being 3lb better off.
That may well be the case, however, I am sure she will relish the heavy ground (she has a very pronounced knee action) and if her jockey can somehow preserve her stamina, she is weighted to go very close…
In summary, I would expect Scholastica to win – but if there is to be a surprise, Alder Mairi looks the most likely one to provide it.

0.75pt win Scholastica 4/1
0.25pt win Alder Mairi 25/1


3:05

We are turning to our new friend Dan Skelton in this – and his promising ex hunter chaser, Forest Walker…
Forest Walker was a mention when he made his debut for Skelton in a Uttoxeter handicap last month…
He absolutely dotted up that day  - and was turned out under a penalty just 5 days later (carrying in excess of 12st).
That appeared to be a mistake on behalf of the rookie trainer – as Forest Walker ran no sort of a race. Lesson learnt, I think…
Forest Walker has been given 7 weeks to recover from his exertions – but now has to run off his new handicap mark (13lb higher than at Uttoxeter).
Whether his new mark will be beyond him, is anyones guess. However, I’m pretty sure he would have won at Uttoxeter with another stone on his back, so I suspect it is still a workable mark.
As with the previous race, I’m happy to take on quite a few in this race, on account of the trip (particularly in the bad ground). It seems a very strange race for the top 3 in the handicap to be running in – that’s for sure…
I’ll be irritated if On Trend wins (saver alert !) – but acknowledge that todays conditions are nearly perfect for him.
He could have been a saver, but instead I’ve opted for the novice, American Spin…
Like On Trend, he is falling down the handicap and 3 miles in soft ground should be right up his street.
There is also the chance that he will get an uncontested lead – and as Annacotty showed yesterday, that can be quite a bonus round Kempton…

0.5pt win Forest Walker 8/1
0.25pt win American Spin 25/1


3:40

This looks such a competitive race, I maybe should have swerved it – but at 20/1 I simply had to give one last chance to Milord…
We were on him 2 runs ago, when he was very unlucky not to collect at Ascot. Lack of pace did for him that afternoon, as he finished like a train to take third place…
A fortnight later, it was a similar situation.
Lack of pace again caused issues – though this time a mistake at the second last, prevented him from getting as close as he might have been able…
With Fergall in todays race, there should be no hanging about – and with 6lb less to carry (1lb lower in the handicap plus 5lb for his jockey claim), I’m sure Milord is a very well handicapped horse…
Unfortunately, this is an extremely strong contest…
We were on the afore mentioned Fergall when he was a game winner at Huntingdon last time out.
He is likely to have come on for that run – and even with an extra 8lb today, he should still put up a bold show today.
Bohemian Rhapsody is another one that we were on last time out, when he was an unlucky second at Newbury.
He is up 7lb for that run – and drops back half a mile in trip – but I still expect him to run very well…
Vibrato Valtat is yet another one who should go well – so, like I say, not an easy race !
However, I think we need to give Milord at least one more chance to prove that he is up to winning a race such as this.

0.25pt EW Milord 20/1


The main attraction on the Kempton card, is obviously Sprinter Sacre, who makes his seasonal reappearance in the Desert Orchid chase at 2:30…
Clearly, he is the best horse in the race, by miles – but heavy ground on his seasonal debut, will see him as vulnerable as he will ever be…
More than that, Sire De Grugy is a reasonable foe – so victory is not a formality…
That said, provided Nicky Henderson has got the ‘Black Aeroplane’ anywhere near right (and I can’t believe he would be running him if he isn’t), then it really should be a case of how far…
Fingers crossed all the same…


Leopardstown

1:50

Gambling Girl really caught my eye when a hugely impressive winner of a grade 3 mares hurdle at Down Royal on November 1st
Despite making a mess of the last, she still won that race by 8 lengths in the style of a horse going places…
Her next run was against the geldings in the Grade 1 Royal Bond novice hurdle at Fairyhouse.
She was sent off an 8/1 shot for that race, but ruined her chance by refusing to settle…
Maybe not too surprisingly, connections have today reached for a hood. That is price of equipment which often helps headstrong horses settle in their races.
Hopefully it will have the desire effect this afternoon…
Even if it does however, Gambling Girl will have to be pretty good, to win todays race.
She is reopposed by The Tullow Tank and Arctic Fire – the horses that finished first and third in the Royal Bond (with Arctic Fire looking an unlucky loser).
In addition, the unbeaten Moyle Park is likely to make a formidable rival.
However, if Gambling Girl is as good as I thought she was when she won at Down Royal, then in receipt of at least 7lb from the main protagonists, I think she could perform very well…

0.25pt win Gambling Girl 20/1


2:55

I’ve talked about these high value Irish handicap chases in the past (don’t mention Cootamundra !) and with a value of Euro 190K, the Paddy Power chase is the daddy of them all…
It’s the kind of race that connections will likely have targeted for some time – so expect it to be won by a young improver, who has not yet fully shown it’s hand…
Cause of Causes has a lot of mileage on his clock, considering he is only 5 years old…
However, most of those miles are over hurdles, a discipline in which he is currently rated 147…
It was off a mark just 5lb lower than that, that Cause of Causes won the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot – one of the most valuable handicap hurdles run during the season.
He won that race as a 4 year old, in heavy ground – which was a tremendous performance…
Trying to operate over hurdles off a mark in the 150s proved beyond Cause of Causes, so maybe not too surprisingly, his attention was turned to fences…
Initially, this didn’t seem to go too well – and as a consequence, Cause of Causes was given an opening handicap mark of 128 over fences – almost 20lb below his hurdle rating…
However, this still didn’t seem overly generous based on his first 2 runs in handicaps, but on his third and most recent run, things looked very different…
Cause of Causes was beaten by a nose in a 26K handicap chase at Fairyhouse…
All of Cause of Causes form has been over a 2 mile trip. However, almost without exception, he finishes strongly in his races so it is maybe not too surprising, considering the size of todays pot, that it is only today that  connections choose to step him up to 3  miles.
The soft ground won’t be an issue – the handicap mark won’t be an issue – so if he does show any improvement for the extra mile, he has to go very close….

0.5pt win Cause of Causes 12/1


Leicester

1:40

This looks quite an open race – but I’m optimistic that Chestertern might have sufficient improvement in him to be able to take it…
Chestertern is only 6 years old and today will only be his 9th race under rules.
Last season, as a novice hurdler, he ran 3 times to get a mark – and then duly bolted up, by 17 lengths, on his handicap debut at Warwick.
Not too surprisingly, the handicapper didn’t take too kindly to that and he got a 17lb rise in the weights for his efforts…
His final 2 runs over hurdles last season were disappointing – but Chestertern looks very much a chaser, so it was no surprise to see him put over fences on his seasonal debut…
A run over an inadequate 2miles, behind the very useful Pendra at Carlisle (where he was staying on well) was followed up by a run over 3 miles at Bangor (where he found the trip too far – but travelled well for most of the contest)
There can be little doubt that todays 2m4f trip is the right one for Chestertern – but his 2 runs this season have got him valuable chasing experience and a couple of pounds off his rating – result !
I suspect that we will see the real Chestertern step forward today –and if that is the case, then I think his rivals are in for a tough time !

0.5pt win Chestertern 8/1


I really wanted to have a go at the opening race on the Leicester card.
Amazingly the bookmakers put in Christopher Wren as an even money chance last night (he is now best priced 10/3 !).
However, it was only a few of them – and they gradually started correcting thing this morning…
A case of sorts could be made for quite a few in the field – but the one whom I think will take the beating is Baile Anrai.
Unfortunately, he is now favourite L
The biggest concern with him, is the trip, He is stepping back from 3 miles to 2 – which is a big drop.
However there are 3 potential front runners in the race (including Christopher Wren) so the contest should be run at a serious pace.
Things were changing too quickly this morning for me to make Baile Anrai a tip – but I do think he will win, so he has therefore become the first Top Pick is a few days…

In the last race on the card, I think our old found Hartside will be nearly impossible to keep out of the frame…
He ran a cracker last Saturday at Haydock and gets to run off the same mark today – and on his preferred soft ground…
The only trouble is, he’s a 5/1 shot – and there are at least a couple I would be afraid of.
I did consider putting him up EW – but if the recent run has taken the edge of him, I would feel silly…
Once again, I am letting him go – but with some reservations about taking that course of action…


Limerick

2:35

As I mentioned the other day, I’m a big fan of Adrian Maguire…
He doesn’t have many runners nowadays but the ones he does have are invariably worth looking out for (unless they are debutants, running on the AW !).
Indian Outlook is a young horse who has only run 5 time under rules- and just the once over fences..
However, that one run resulted in a comfortable win in a decent beginners chase at Sligo – and suggested he might have a bright future over the bigger obstacles…
I find it particularly interesting that following that victory, Indian Outlook has only run once - and that was back over hurdle.
It strikes me that with a rating of 123, Maguire knows that he has got a horse handicapped to go to war with and didn’t want to risk the rating by running him over fences before he’s had chance to go for a decent pot.
That chance comes today – with  Euro 50K up for grabs…
Obviously there is a risk with one so inexperienced, taking on a big field of handicappers – but in addition to his run over fences under rules, Indian Outlook also has a couple of runs in the PTP field to his name.
I’ll be a bit surprised if the hustle and bustle proves to much for him – and if it doesn’t I think he could be capable of going very close.

0.5pt win Indian Outlook 14/1

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips


Kemp 2:00 Scholastica 4/1
Kemp 2:00 Alder Mairi 25/1
Kemp 3:05 Forest Walker 8/1
Kemp 3:05 American Spin 25/1
Kemp 3:40 Milord 20/1
Leic 1:40 Chestertern 8/1
Leop 1:50 Gambling Girl 20/1
Leop 2:55 Cause of Causes 12/1
Lim 2:35 Indian Outlook 14/1

Mentions


Kemp 3:05 On Trend (O)
Leic 3:15 Hartside (C)

Top Picks


Leic 12:35 Baile Anrai