It’s great to see the rain starting to relent – and in
the fullness of time, the going should improve and form lines become more
predictable.
However, that will take a few more weeks (of dry-ish
conditions), so in the short term at least, we will still have to battle with
the uncertainty that has blighted the year so far…
That said, we can be pretty certain that the going today
at both Newcastle and Chepstow will be somewhere between heavy and desperate –
so I’ve tried to ensure that the tips from these two locations all have their
swimming proficiency badges !!
I issued tips in 6 race, but one of them – Super Villan –
has been declared a non runner…
He was probably my best bet last night, when he was
installed as a 10/1 shot.
However, at half that price this morning, he was a
marginal call.
Maybe his connections felt the same way…
Anyway, I am reasonably optimistic about the chances of
the remaining tips.
Clearly, it makes sense to continue to tread cautiously –
but I would be hopeful that we might get a result or two falling our way this
afternoon.
Time will tell, I guess…
Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other
thoughts on the day…
Newcastle
2:20
Kudu Country was my original start point for this
race…
He caught my eye on his belated seasonal debut in a hot
handicap at Kempton last month.
He led for most of the race that day and was in front and
going OK, turning for home.
Maybe not too surprisingly, lack of race fitness caught
him out up the straight – but he still managed to finish a highly creditable
fourth behind some talented and progressive rivals.
With that run under his belt – and off a 1lb lower mark
today, over a trip and on ground, that will both suit fine – and with the
possibility of an uncontested lead, he simply has to go well…
My main issue with him, is that whilst on chasing form,
he appears well handicapped, that isn’t really the case on his hurdling
form.
Furthermore, as an 8 year old, his scope for improvement
is limited…
I can’t ignore his chances – but I would be fearful that
he might be beaten by a more progressive horse…
If that is the case, then I’m hoping it will be in the
shape of Angelot Du Berlais.
He’s not run over hurdles since bleeding at the
Cheltenham festival last season. However, he has had a couple of recent runs on
the AW, and so should be cherry ripe for todays contest…
Those 2 runs were reasonable enough – but the case for
him is built upon the form he showed as a juvenile hurdler last campaign – and
in particular his run in the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon, just over a year
ago…
That is always a very good 4 year old hurdle race and
Angelot finished third in it, behind Chris Pea Green and Zamdy Man.
Those 2 are now rated 142 and 150 respectively, which
suggests that Angelot Du Berlais could be well handicapped off a mark of just
125.
Furthermore, as a half brother to the very smart Afsoun,
there must be a fair chance that he will ultimately end up a good deal better
than his current rating…
Angelot showed a good attitude both at Huntingdon and
when winning his previous race at Ludlow – and he should be able to handle today
deep ground.
He looks to me like the one horse in the race who could
be a fair bit better than his current mark and as such, he is the main bet –
with Kudu Country the saver…
0.5pt win Angelto Du Berlais
8/1
0.25pt win Kudu Country
6/1
2:55
We were on Smoking Aces last time out in the West Wales
National, at Ffos Las.
He finished third that day, behind Emperors Choice,
running a highly respectable race and probably just losing out because of his
sometimes ponderous jumping…
In truth, there is always the chance that his jumping
might find him out again today – though an extra 5 furlongs should see the field
going even more slowly and therefore the ability to negotiate obstacles at speed
shouldn’t be a significant requirement !
The other big thing that Smoking Aces has in his favour
today, is the man on top…
As I’ve said many times in the past, I’m a big fan of
Maurice Linehan and his 5lb claim is an absolute gift. I’m taking nothing away
from Richie McCleran by saying that compared to his last run, I would view
Smoking Aces today as being 5lb lower in the handicap than he was last time -
and over such a marathon trip, that is significant.
It almost goes without saying that todays race is going
to be a war of attrition.
Just over 4 miles in heavy ground will take some getting
– and only the fittest, hardiest sorts, are going to get home.
Smoking Aces was running on again close home last time
over 3m4f in the mud at Ffos Las so I would be very optimistic that he will
relish todays test…
Of his opponents, then I can see the Pricewise angle on
both Wyck Hill and Safran De Cotte – and I would also expect Royal Knight to run
a big race.
However the one I would probably fear most is the
outsider, Tarquinius…
On recent form he has no chance, but it is only a year
ago, since he was second to Jadanli in the Thystes off a mark 3lb higher than
todays…
He will have no issue with the trip or the ground – and
in trainer Gordon Elliot he has a man behind him capable of winning a race such
as this.
I suspect Tarquinius might just have one last big race
win left in him. Lets hope it’s not today !!
0.5pt win Smoking Aces
9/1
4:30
There is nothing particularly clever about opting for
Sustainability in this race…
A relatively unexposed Venetia Williams runners, who has
finished first or second in 10 of his 16 races under rules, and who will be well
suited by todays test of 2m4f in heavy ground.
I certainly expected him to be a bit shorter in the betting than the 6/1
available…
He was late returning to action this season, with his
first outing of his campaign over hurdles at Taunton, just last
month…
And despite being beaten 42 lengths that day, he actually
ran very well, disputing the lead with the eventual winner, Virak, until that
one powered clear up the home straight…
On the back of 8 months off the course, it is quite
possible that Sustainability needed the run – though he lost little in defeat to
a rival who won easily again this week and is likely to be rated close to 150
the next time he runs…
In all probably, Sustainability is a better horse over
fences anyway.
He won a couple of times over the bigger obstacles as a
novice last season and looked the sort who would improve with his novice
campaign behind him.
He should be spot on today for his return to fences and
with Robbie Dunne taking 3lbs off his back, I think he will take plenty of
beating…
That said, he faces some quite stiff competition today:
despite top weight, Consigliere is back on a mark that he can win off; whist
Wicklow Lad and Fentara both ran well in defeat last time out and Sharney Sike
is chasing a hatrick.
However I am optimistic that Sustainability will be up to
the challenge ahead…
0.5pt win Sustainability
6/1
Kempton
3:50
The Betbright chase (formerly the Racing Post chase)
looks as competitive as you would expect for the prize money on offer, but I
think Niceonefrankie warrants a small play to keep going the tremendous run of
Venetia Williams and Aiden Coleman…
In fact, it strikes me as quite significant that Coleman
chooses to go to Kempton for just the one ride for Venetia (he has 2 others as
well) when she has fancied runners at both Chepstow – and more significantly –
Newcastle…
And depending on how you want to look at it, the case for
Niceonefrnankie can either be considered quite strong – or a little flawed
!
On the positive side, he ran probably his best trace last
season, in defeat at the Kempton track, so we know he will have no issues with
the course.
He also trounced Double Ross on his seasonal debut this
campaign and as that one is now rated 19lb higher, Niceonefrankie looks very
well handicapped on that piece of form, running off a mark just 7lb higher
today…
However, both of those races were over trips at least
half a mile shorter than Niceonerankie faces today – so that has to be a
doubt.
He did run a creditable fifth over 3 mils last time at
Doncaster however, so there must be affair chance that he will last home
OK.
Certainly as a potential improver, from a yard that is
currently flying, he looked big enough in the betting to warrant a small
chance…
Cases of sorts could be made for most of his opponents,
though it was Planet of Sound and Tour Des Champs that interested me
most…
The former is probably still fairly weighted on a mark
just 4lb higher than he won from last time – though this is a much deeper race;
and whilst Tour Des Champs is potentially very well handicapped, I’m not
entirely convinced that Kempton will play to his strengths (plus he is now quite
short in the betting).
0.25pt win Niceonefrankie
16/1
In the opener on the card, I was half tempted by Present
View…
He looked a progressive novice chaser earlier in the
season and could well benefit from a mid season rest.
The race doesn’t look overly competitive either – but I
still didn’t feel there was quite enough margin in a quote of 9/2, with the
likes of Ballinvarig and Brody Bleu in opposition…
It’s difficult to have a strong view on the Adonis hurdle
at 2:05, as it’s more a race to be watched and learnt from…
That said, if forced to bet, I would probably side with
Commissioned, who showed a lot of promise on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham,
and was a decent sort on the flat…
In the Pendil novice chase at 2:40, I would slightly
favour Fox Appeal over Balder Succes.
However, 6/4 is far too short for me to consider getting
involved…
At a price, I could see Gods Own running a big race –
though he is held on last time out form by Fox Appeal…
It is difficult to see beyond Irving in the Dovecote
novice hurdle at 3:15 – though any money for Cup Final could well be
significant…
I could see a scenario where Amore Alto nicked the race –
and I could also see Germany Calling running better than his odds imply.
However, I couldn’t make either of them solid
bets…
The handicap hurdle at 4:25 looks between the top 3 in
the betting and as such, Minella on Line held some appeal, as the outsider of
those 3…
The trouble is, I’m not sure he really wants to be
dropped back in trip and I also think that the favourite, Full Shift will take
some beating…
Chepstow
4:10
A class 5 chase on a Saturday might seem like a slightly
strange race for the best bet of the day, but there you go…!
It might also seems bit odd to be taking 8/1 about a
horse who was a 50/1 shot last time out, when he finished behind a couple of
todays rivals – but I think there are good reason for wanting to get involved
with Enchanting Smile today…
First things first, Enchanting Smile might have finished
third behind Brandon Thomas and Sablazo last time out, but rounding the home
turn, he looked by far the most likely winner…
He didn’t quite get home that day, but that was almost
certainly because he was too keen in the early part of the race.
Connections have reached for a first time hood this
afternoon, and if that has the desired effect (a hood is generally fitted to
help a horse settle) then I would expect him to finish his race much better this
afternoon..
Even without that, he is weighted to finished in a line
with the two that beat him last time – so there seemed little justification for
the bookmakers having priced him up a few points bigger than them on the opening
show…
In a low grade race such as this, there is always the
chance that one of the runners will show greatly improved form – but that is a
chance we will just have to take.
I feel comfortable that Enchanted Times should be able to
get the better of two of the market leaders – and as today will only be his
third outing over fences, he should also have a fair bit of scope for
improvement.
At the end of the day, I think he sets a decent standard
in what is a poor race and early odds of 8/1 definitely represented a bit of
value.
0.75pt win Enchanting Smile
8/1
It was disappointing to see Super Villan taken out of the
1:55 race – but considering the price crash, it was maybe
understandable…
I had him down as the most solid option in the race - but
one or two of his rivals would probably have been capable of beating him, if
everything had fallen right for them…
Big Society would be the most dangerous – provided his
jumping holds up.
That is far from guaranteed, but at the current 15/2, he
might be worth a small risk…
In the 2:30 race I was half tempted by top weight
Swynmor…
He has run much better than it appears in his last two
races and I would expect him to go very well today.
He almost won a grace 1
hurdle over this course and distance last season so off a mark off 129 (minus a
10lb claim) could be thrown in today..
The issue was purely the early price – but that doesn’t
mean he can’t be Top Pick J
The handicap chase at 3:05 looks a bit of a
minefield…
All things being equal, I would make Grey Gold the most
likely winner.
However, he’s favourite – and has to carry 11st7lb.
Easy enough to swerve, on balance…
Finally, I guess there is a chance that Tullyeskar Hill
could run away with the 3:40 race – but if he doesn’t it looks another very
tight contest…
I would expect Ugly Bug to run another decent race – but
I’ll be a little surprised if he comes home in front…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newc 2:20 Angelot Du Berlais 8/1
Newc 2:20 Kudu Country 6/1
Newc 2:55 Smoking Aces 9/1
Newc 4:30 Sustainability 6/1
Kemp 3:50 Niceonefrankie 16/1
Chep 4:10 Enchanting Smile 8/1
Mentions
Newc 2:55 Tarquinius (S)
Kemp 1:30 Present View (P)
Kemp 2:05 Commissioned (S)
Kemp 4:25 Minella on Line (O)
Chep 1:55 Big Society (C)
Chep 3:05 Grey Gold (P)
Top Picks
Chep 2:30 Swynmor
