Daily write-up - Nov 30th

There are 5 NH meetings today, at Newbury, Newcastle, Towcester and Bangor in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland…

If I needed any confirmation that the lights I saw on Thursday evening weren’t the those of a bright new dawn, it came when I looked at todays cards…

No matter how I turned them around (and I tried a variety of different ways) I couldn’t get any suitable selections to fall out…

I could only find a lot of dull glows – and I don’t honestly think I should be tipping based on those – there will be other days…

Ofcourse, the dull glows can all be mentions – and that is the beauty of this service.

You will get my opinions – and you can add them to your own – and if the end result is a bet, then everyone will be happy !

Anyway, on to a preview of the day ahead – with particular focus on the 2 races in which we do have a tip.

I was a little perturbed to hear about the post race altercation between Timmy Murphy and Dominic Elsworth, at Newbury yesterday.

I hope Elsworth didn’t overly exert himself – bearing in mind he is on board Loch Ba this afternoon ! At least it would appear that he came out on top ;)

Newbury

3:00

Everyone continually bangs on about how only top class (ie. Gold Cup) class chasers can win the Hennessy…

They will use the likes of Denman and Bobsworth to illustrate their point – and that’s fair enough – if there is a Denman or a Bobsworth running in the race – but what if there isn’t..?

Personally, I just don’t see any of the ‘big names’ in this years Hennessy as potential Gold Cup horses…

Lord Windermere, Rocky Creek, Our Father and Hadrian’s Approach just don’t strike me as having star potential…

I think there are 2 in the field who could have star potential: Katenko and Invictus. However both have significant absences to overcome – and, in the case of Katenko, I just don’t see him being suited by the ground…

If you eliminate those 6 from your calculations, you have a much easier race to solve !!

I’ve used the tried and tested approach of looking at the bottom of the handicap for young horses with potential.

The logic here is that it is a lot easier for the like s of Loch Ba, with a current rating of 133  to improve by 20lb (which would take him to 153) than it is for Lord Windermere off a current rating of 154 (a rating of 174 would have him disputing favouritism for the Gold Cup).

The 3 I’ve taken against the field, are Loch Ba, Highland Lodge and Merry King.

I tipped Loch Ba earlier in the week and we certainly did well with the price (40/1 then is now 20/1 now).

I’ve always felt this horse had a decent handicap in him – and whilst I didn’t necessarily think it was the Hennessy, as I’ve inferred, this seasons renewal looks there for the taking…

He was mighty impressive taking a handicap at this course last January – and he should be much better for his recent run at Bangor (where he didn’t travel as he can – but still finished second).

I think he has got a fair chance – and was certainly overpriced earlier in the week…

The next one I want on side is Highland Lodge…

In truth I would prefer softer ground for him but he proved last time, when putting it up to a peak form Standing Ovation (to whom he was trying to give 26lb) he can handle quicker ground OK…

He was a decent novice last season and he destroyed Our Father at Cheltenham. He then suffered with ulcers so his subsequent runs can be forgiven…

I expect him to put in a bold show from the front – so I would expect him to give us a good run for our money, whatever…

The final one I want on side, is Merry King…

Again I think he would prefer soft ground – but again, I think he will get away with it today.

He certainly seemed happy enough last time when running a really big race behind Houblon Des Obeaux at Ascot. The 7lb weight turnaround today, will hopefully be enough to enable him to reverse the placings with that one.

At this meeting last season, Merry King ran a fine second to the now 153 rated Rolling Aces. On that piece of form, he looks well handicapped today off a mark of 140.

Clearly this is not a race where you can be over confident.

However with question marks over the top of the betting I am happy to take 3 from the bottom of the handicap, who have all got fair chances.

0.25pt EW Loch Ba 40/1 

0.25pt win Highland Lodge 12/1

0.25pt win Merry King 12/1

1:20

Despite how it appears with the staking, Tatenen was my entry point to this race…

I simply can’t believe that he is running off a mark of 128 today – bearing in mind how well he ran off much higher marks last season…

OK he didn’t win last year, but he ran a screamer on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham and after that, was generally given unsuitable tests (too short or to far).

He is 2m6f horse – and today he gets that trip. If he has not lost his edge, then he will run a huge race…

The issue was obviously how do you stake a 40/1 shot..?

If he retains his old ability, I would expect him to win – so EW seemed a bit of a waste ! If he hasn’t then he will likely not be placed…

Maybe I should have had the 0.5pt on him – but instead I chose to give that to Ruben Cotter…

He may well be the first ever Paul Nichols horse that I’ve tipped – so he better not let me down !

His defeat of Vintage Star at Doncaster in February, suggested that he might tuned out to be a very good chaser indeed.

However a subsequent fall on his only other start last season – and a seemingly disappointing comeback run, put question marks over him..

However, I feel it is far too soon to be writing him off…

There was distinct promise in his comeback run, where he seemed simply to falter due to lack of peak fitness.

The handicapper has generously dropped him 5lb on the back of that run, which enables him to get into this 0-135 rated race.

I would expect him to run much better this afternoon…

The final one I want on side for the race is Opera Og…

There is nothing clever about this one: a Venetia Williams trained potential improver, who was very unlucky not to collect first time up this season at Bangor (traded at 1.01). He runs off the same mark today – and is right at the bottom of the handicap. He should go well…

0.5pt win Ruben Cotter 10/1

0.25pt win Opera Og 11/1

0.25pt win Tatenen 40/1

In the 12:50 race on the card, I was half tempted by Un Bon P'tit Gars…

He was beaten by Flaming Charmer on his seasonal debut - but I would expect him to turn that form round today.

However, I am fearful of the top 2 in the betting: Valdez and Black River.
The latter in particular, could be anything.

I have the feeling that Un Bob P'tit Gars might be better off giving weight to inferior rivals – so I’ll leave him alone for another day…

In the 1:50 race, I was half tempted by Pujabi, on his first run for David Pipe.

He is certainly thrown in if he retina any of his old ability – but that is a big ‘if’…

The other one to catch my eye, was The Bear Trap…

Conventional wisdom says that he needs softer ground – and he might. However I’ll be surprised if he can’t get away with it today.

That said, it is a tough race, with lots of horses who it is difficult to get a handle on..

On balance, I decided to pass…

I hope At Fishers Cross can win the stayers hurdle at 2:25 – and I think he will…

He looked a serious animal last season  - and there is no reason for thinking he won’t continue to progress his campaign…

There are question marks against all of his rival – and it could be Medinas that chases him home…

The finale looks a really trappy affair…

I would struggle to choose between the first 5 in the betting – and half cases can be made for 3 or 4 others…
Gun to my head, I would plump for Elenika – but more in hope that confidence…

Newcastle

I did feel that I ought to be able to solve the Rehearsal chase at 2:40 – but I can’t…

A bit like the last race at Newbury, I think a good case can be made for the top 4 in the betting…

I’ll be surprised in the winner comes from outside that quartet – though I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility…

I think Hey Big Spender is the most likely winner – but Baile Anrai is also worth a mention (Ladbrokes have him at a generous looking 8/1 as I write this).

In the Fighting fifth, I would hope to see My Tent or Yours consolidate his position near the top of the betting for the Champion hurdle- though in Melodic Rendezvous, he faces a serious rival…

In theory the race has a nice shape for EW betting – but with 4 in the running for 1 place, I wasn’t convinced there was much of an angle…

Duke of Navan has probably been underrated at 33/1 – though there is always the danger that he will need the run…

Towcester

I got very close to tipping at Towcester today – very close indeed…

You won’t be too surprised to hear that the horse I considered was our old friend Pod.
He ran a stormer last time, when piped by Milosam at Taunton.

Milosam has subsequently come out and franked the form – making it look quite strong by class 5 standards…

The issue I have with Pod today, is that he is 11/4 in a race where there are a few unknowns…

I would be happy enough to take on Lord Landon (despite the intended booking of Timmy Murphy – which did look significant) – but I was worried about a couple of others  (Classic Case and Endofdiscussion)…

Maybe I was trying to be too sure – I have to acknowledge that in betting there will always be a risk.
But at such a short price - and with me unable to get a proper feel for all of the opposition – I just couldn’t bring myself to take the risk today…

Time may tell if I was right…

I was also quit tempted by Kings Apollo in the 1:45…

Again, he is becoming a bit of a fried for the season, having finished first and second as a mention…

All things being equal, I would expect him to win today as well – but in a 13 runner class 5 race, it is difficult to be sure that everything will be equal – and there is absolutely no margin in a price of 2/1…

In you are the at way inclined, my advice would be to back him in running…

He is a bit lazy and tends to need rousting along – I’ll be surprised if he isn’t available at 5 or 6/1, about half a mile from home (which would be a good time to strike a bet)…

Fairyhouse

Yet again,  I was struggling to see much beyond the top of the market in the races I looked at – and with dangerous opposition all over the place, I decide the pass…

In the handicap chase at 1:25, it was Gentleman Duke who nearly tempted me in …

He won a fair novice chase last time out and doesn’t looked overly burdened for his handicap debut.
However, dangers abound – with The Shepherd King of particular interest – and a best price of 6/1 just wasn’t tempting enough…

There is a cracking novice chase at 1:55 and I was tempted by Sizing Gold…

However he takes on Foxrock, who ran so well on his chasing debut – and 2 or 3 other potentially decent sorts…

Sizing Gold also has to give away race fitness to most of his rivals – so I couldn’t quite bring myself to get involved at a best price of 7/2…

Finally a quick mention for Vaxalco in the handicap hurdle at 3:05..

He was an unlucky loser last time and must have a fair chance of gaining compensation today…

However he has 27 opponents and is a best priced 9/1.

I think I’ll just watch him perform…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 1:20 Ruben Cotter 10/1

Newb 1:20 Opera Og 11/1

Newb 1:20 Tatenen 40/1

Newb 3:00 Loch Ba 40/1

Newb 3:00 Highland Lodge 12/1

Newb 3:00 Merry King 12/1

Mentions

Newb 12:50 Un Non Ptit Gars (O)

Newb 1:50 The Bear Trap (O) & Punjabi (S)

Newb 3:35 Elenika (O)

Newc 2:05 Duke of Navan EW (C)

Newc 2:40 Hey Big Spender (P) & Baille Anrai (O)

Tow 12:45 Pod (P)

Tow 1:45 Kings Apollo (P)

Fair 1:25 Gentleman Duke (O)

Fair 1:55 Sizing Gold (C)

Fair 3:05 Vaxalco (O)