Daily write-up - Nov 23rd

There are 4 NH meetings today, at Haydock, Ascot and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

Haydock put on what is undoubtedly the best days racing of the season so far – with the highlight, the Betfair chase.

It’s no exaggeration to say that this race is unlikely to be surpassed this side of the Cheltenham festival – so one to treasure, that’s for sure…

The rest of the card isn’t too bad either: with a couple of high class handicap hurdles and a couple of decent staying chases.

On the other hand, the card at Ascot, is downright disappointing…

Small fields and uncompetitive races. One or two decent horses will be running, but you would really expect more from such a meeting.

The meetings at Huntingdon and Gowran are pretty drab.

That said, our biggest bet of the day runs at Huntingdon, so hopefully it will light up that card.

I couldn’t find anything at all at Gowran however – not even a mention !!

That said, I expect it to be very different there tomorrow, when it is Troytown chase day…

I’m sure Tom Segal will be all over the race, so I will look to beat him to the punch and issue a tip or two for the race some time this afternoon (depending on other commitments).

On to a preview of the day ahead then, starting with the spectacular meeting at Haydock Park…

Haydock

3:00

The race of the season so far – without shadow of a doubt…

8 of the best 3 mile chasers in the country facing up to each other, with the field headed by the current Gold Cup holder, Bobs Worth.

Nearly unbeatable at Cheltenham, the question is whether he will have the pace to cope with the flatter, quicker Haydock track…

If he doesn’t there are plenty who will be keen to take advantage.

The most likely winner of the race, in my opinion, is Silviniaco Conti. He won the race 12 months ago, getting the better of Long Run and The Giant Bolster.

The track seems to play to his strengths and it will take a good one to defeat him today.

On the face of it, there seems little reason why The Giant Bolster should be able to get the better of him today – but, as I’ve said before, the key to this game is ‘value’…

The Giant Bolster finished 7 lengths behind Silviniaco Conti last year – having tried to take a few of the Haydock fences with him.

He won’t be conceding race fitness today – and has a different pilot on board in Denis O’Regan.

Whether O’Regans style will be better suited to The Giant Bolster, only time will tell – but I would be optimistic…

O’Regan is more of an ‘artist’, who likes to finesse his horses; whereas TGBs previous jockey, Tom Scudamore, is more all action, throw them at the fences type !

Both style have their merits ( and downsides !) – but for a horse who can struggle negotiating the obstacles, O’Regan may be the better match.

If that is the case, then the gap on Silviniaco Conti should  be closed (taking fitness into consideration as well) – and if that is the case, I struggle to see why TGB should be 3 times the price to place, that Silviniaco is to win…

Of course, this isn’t a 3 or even 4 horse race – a legitimate case can be made for all of the contenders…

However, I think it will be a very big ask for Dynaste on his first run out of novice company – and I’ll be a little surprised if Roi Du Mee proves to be quite up to the job.

Tidal Bay would have been up to the job a couple of years ago – but pushing 13, I simply don’t think he will be quick enough today…

Cue Card is the potential fly in the ointment – if he stays –and if he jumps cleanly enough.

I think he has the raw talent to go very close- but I also think it unlikely that the race will unfold in the specific way he would need in order to see him victorious…

On balance, then whilst TGB may not be quite good enough , I think he should be there or thereabouts – and if his new jockey can eak out a little more improvement, then who knows what might happen…

0.25pt EW The Giant Bolster 40/1

3:35

When I looked at this race yesterday afternoon, I felt sure I could see an angle into it…

My start point was Mac Aeda, who is a very talented horse, more than capable of winning a race like this off his current mark – but who, for whatever reason, just won’t put his head in front..

Connections try him in blinkers for the first time today - and I honestly think that might be the answer.

He travels like a horse who is at least as stone better than his current rating.

If the problem is in his head, then hopefully the blinkers will sort it out; if the problem is physical, then they have applied a tongue tie as well, to sort that out.
Either way, he has no excuses today !!

I really do see him going close whatever, so an EW bet wouldn’t have been a bad shout – but at just 7/1, we would only get our money back in he placed.

I decided therefore, to go for a couple of savers instead…

The first is Relax, trained by our favourite trainer, Venetia Williams…

Few of her horses made a bigger impression on me last season, than Relax did when he won at Doncaster…

To say he dotted up that day would be an understatement. He looked like a horse who had stones in hand, so I was a little perplexing that he didn’t win another race last campaign…

Maybe something wasn’t quote right – I don’t know. But what I do know, is that he gets to start this season off a mark only 7lb higher than the one he won from at Doncaster.

He could still be a very well handicapped horse…

The other one I want on side is Sainte Are…

On recent form it is tricky to make a case for him – but if you go back a bit further you will find that he to is a well handicapped horse…

His last win, at Aintree 18 months ago, was off a mark a pound higher than he runs off today. He showed last December that he can handle soft ground and he should be all the better for his seasonal debut, which was over an inadequate trip.

Connections apply a visor for the first time today, which is also interesting…

Like I say, I was looking for horses who could win the race if Mac Aeda didn’t perform – and Relax and Saint Are both struck me as animals with sufficient ability and well enough handicapped to do so.

If Mac Aeda delivers I wouldn’t except them to be quite good enough - but if he doesn’t…

0.5pt win Mac Aeda 7/1

0.25pt win Relax 9/1

0.25pt win Saint Are 14/1

1:15

This is a very trappy race –and one where I could literally give half a dozen a chance.

The one I’ve plumped for is Chac Du Cardran – an improving young chaser, who should be ideally suited by the demands of todays test…

Chac Du Cadran really impressed me when wining the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick back in January…

He jumped from fence to fence that day and ran out a very easy winner.

He has only run twice since that day; in the midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March, when he disappointed and on his seasonal debut at Carlisle last month, when he fell…

Hopefully he will be non the worse for that mishap and if that’s the case I really can see him running well today…

Todays ground and trip are exactly the same as those which he was successful over at Catterick – and I think he should be ideally suited by the Haydock course, which tends to favour front runners and isn’t that hard to jump round.

If he can get into a rhythm at the front of the field, than I think Chac Du Cadran will take some passing…

There are a number of dangers in the race however, so victory will not be easy…
Top weight Ace High looks very temptingly handicapped on his debut for David Pipe; whilst at he other end of the weights, Gorgehous Lleige will be looking to go one better than he did last time, when we were on him at Sandown.

I would also respect the chances of Our Island; whilst  Red Rocco and Nuts N Bolts are two horses who have potential to be a fair bit better than their current marks.
Like I said, not an easy race to win !

However, I do think that Chac Du Cadran has a very solid chance – and might just be able to boss the race.
At double figure odds, I think it is worth taking a small chance on him.

0.5pt wn Chac Du Cadran 10/1

12:10

I didn’t honestly expect to be piling in to this particular race – but there you go..!

As you know, Ruler of All is a horse that is on my radar.

We were on him last time at Wincanton , when he ran a fair race in the Elite hurdle.

My observation that day was that he would remain of interest in the right grade - and going the other way round. Well, he gets both of those today.

He also gets a 3lb drop in the weights, which makes him of further interest…

In truth, part of the reason I’m attracted to him, is that he is the sort of horse that is likely to be underrated - and that is the sort of horse we need to be getting on.

He was actually a 20/1 shot in a pace last night (16/1 generally) – and I was therefore a little surprised to see him at just 12/1 this morning (bearing in mind I didn’t expect him to be noticed).

That said, I do think he has a decent chance – so I’ve just switched from backing him EW to backing him win only !!

The other one that really interests me in the race, is Bobs World…

He has some cracking for from the back end of last season  - and the handicapper seems to be in an almighty rush to drop him this campaign.
Admittedly there wasn’t much to take out of his debut run – but last time out, he ran perfectly respectably over a trip that was probably a little far for him.

Back down in trip and off a mark 8lb lower than he started the season, I think he represents serious value at 33/1 in a place.

0.5pt win Ruler of All 12/1

0.25pt EW Bobs World 33/1

There are 2 really high class handicap hurdles in the middle of the card - but I have resisted the temptation to play in either…

I think it is important in this game, to know your strengths and your weaknesses – and high grade handicap hurdles are not generally races that I have a strong view on…

That is certainly the case today – so I am happy enough to swerve both.

Ofcourse, I do have view on them – and that is why the mentions are so useful !

In the 1:50 Clondaw Kaempfer could be much better than his current mark of 144 – whilst I would expect Vasco D’Ycy to out run odds of 66/1 (though he is likely to fade up the home stright).

In the fixed brush race at 2:25, I was initially interested in Utopie Des Bordes and Lie Forret. However, the confidence behind Two Rockers strikes me as quite significant…

Whatever, this race in particular is likely to prove a rich source of winners for the rest of the season. I would advise you to watch it closely…

Ascot

My what a disappointing card !!

Rarely can a meeting have promised so much –and delivered so little !!

Still, as I said in the introduction, there are some very interesting horses running , non more so than Carraig Mor, who contests the very first race on the card.

Trust me, this boy could be absolute top class – keep an eye on him !

If the going was a little softer or the distance a little further I might have been tempted by Comeonginger in the 1:00 race.

At 33/1 some of you still might be…

If you prefer a safer option, then Oscar Davy strikes me as the most likely winner of the race – but there is little margin in his price…

In the 1:30 race, I was again tempted, this time by Lady Kathleen…

She is a mare that I have a lot of time for – and whilst I think she will be well suited by todays ground – I suspect she might just need the run…

The 2:05 is a significant race for us because it sees the seasonal reappearance of our King George VI chase tip, Captain Chris…

He only has 2 rivals to beat – with Al Ferof by far the biggest banger.
I think Captain Chris will win – but even if he can’t give 3lb to Al Ferof, it won’t be a disaster…

More interesting for the King George market, will be the events in the Betfair chase at Haydock…

Hopefully Annie Power will take the Ascot hurdle at 2:40 – as she has form which ties in with Defy Logic.

The handicap chase at 3:15 looks very trappy.

I wouldn’t be prepared to tip in it – but if they do go off at a pace (which seems likely) and Alasi can pop away at the back, look out for her coming through late.

A possible in running play for those of you who like that kind of thing…

Huntingdon

2:50

With such a brilliant card at Haydock, it seems a little wrong that we are going to Huntingdon for the biggest bet of the day  - and in a class 5 race to boot !

Anyone would think it was a Monday afternoon !!

Still, as you know, Cure Court is a horse that has been on my radar – and I think he is ready to strike today…

As I said on Tuesday, when I tipped Fortitsa, I have no issue tipping in these low grade races – I’m just always a bit fearful that there is a plot lurking..

Hopefully that won’t be the case – and if it isn’t I think Cure Court will take the beating today..

As I mentioned when he ran last time out, he caught my eye at Chepstow when beaten miles by Creepy.

I wasn’t sure whether I had actually seen something of note, but his run last time out at Exeter, told me that he definitely has ability…

Held up out the back hat day, he made eye catching progress round the home turn and briefly looked like he might be involved in the finish.

His effort didn’t really materialise up the straight – but he was only beaten 8 lengths into fourth place..

That was a better race than todays - and Cute Court has been dropped 1lb for the run.
Maybe the biggest indicator that today is the day however, is the jockey booking…

Timmy Murphy takes over on Cute Court, from Connor O’Farrell - and it’s his only ride of the day.

Murphy is adept at putting horses to sleep at the back of the field – and then bringing them late.
I expect that is how Cute Court will be ridden today – and provided there is nothing in the field that improves dramatically by a stone or two, I would be very hopefully that those tactics will be successfully executed.

1pt win Cute Court 11/2

After he ran last time, I said I wouldn’t be touching Arkose again – and I won’t…

But I was quite tempted !!

He has been dropped 6lb for his run at Exeter and today runs over further; on softer ground and against lower quality opposition.

If he was any sort of a price, I might be prepared to give him another go – but at 3/1, he will just have to be a mention…

Gowran Park

No tips: no mentions L

It will be different tomorrow though !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Hayd 12:10 Ruler of All 12/1

Hayd 12:10 Bobs World 33/1

Hayd 1:15 Chac Du Cadran 10/1

Hayd 3:00 The Giant Bolster 40/1

Hayd 3:55 Mac Aeda 7/1

Hayd 3:55 Relax 9/1

Hayd 3:55 Saint Are 14/1

Hunt 2:50 Cute Court 11/2

Mentions

Hayd 1:50 Clondaw Kaempfer (P)

Hayd 1:50 Vasco D’Ycy (C)

Hayd 2:25 Utopie Des Bordes (O)

Hayd 2:25 Lie Forrit (O)

Hayd 3:00 Silviniaco Conti (P)

Asc 12:25 Carraig Mor (P)

Asc 1:00 Comeonginger (S)

Asc 1:00 Oscar Davy (P)

Asc 1:30 Lady Kathleen (C)

Asc 2:05 Captain Chris (P)

Asc 3:15 Alasi (P)

Hunt 1:40 Arkose (P)