Daily write-up - Nov 15th

Day 1 of the Cheltenham Open meeting – plus there is a NH meeting at Newcastle…

Bearing in mind what I said the other day about not wanting to spread myself too thinly, I had a quick scan of the Newcastle card yesterday, but when I didn’t see anything of significant interest, I moved on…

In truth, I’m trying to create a service for NH enthusiasts – and if you are a NH enthusiast, then your focus this afternoon will be solely on Prestbury park.

I’ve therefore done my best to cover all of the races there, in appropriate detail J

I’ve issued tips in 4 of the days races. Most of them were issued in the tipping widow between 5:00 and 6:00 last night – and I have no reason to think this wasn’t a success.

If you did have any issues securing the advised prices about any of the selections - either yesterday evening or this morning – please let me know…

In truth, I wish it were possible to tip like that every day – but the markets are generally not strong enough to withstand it.

Horses would be dramatically cut within minutes of me issuing a tip - and ultimately, that is no-ones interest…

Anyway, on with the preview for today.

The meeting starts on unseasonably quick ground (which isn’t particularly good news for either of the bets we struck earlier in the week – in fact, Katenko hasn’t even been declared for the Paddy Power Gold cup L ), so we need to be looking for horses that can handle those conditions.

I know that a few of you are attending the meeting and I hope you have a great time.

Certainly on day 1, I don’t foresee a lot of surprise results. Generally, the market leaders look pretty solid to me.

And that is certainly the case in the first day of the day…

1:05

Simply, if you bet against Standing Ovation today, you will be doing so in the hope that he doesn’t perform to the level that he did on Saturday.

If he does perform to that level, then he should win this race.

Last Saturday, was a comfortable winner of the much more competitive Badge Ales chase at Wincanton.

Because that race was run less than a week ago, the official handicapper hasn’t had chance to revise Standing Ovations mark, so he gets to run off the same rating today – with a 7lb penalty…

If the Handicapper was able to factor Saturdays performance into Standing Ovations rating, he would be 6lb higher today – but I’m not honestly sure that would stop him either…

Standing Ovation is a horse on a rapid upward curve. He gave notice of that when getting the better of a titanic battle with Highland Lodge on his penultimate run.

He runs off a mark 17lb higher today – but as his win on Saturday showed, he’s a big improver…

I can see 2 reason why he might be beaten today. Firstly, the Cheltenham fences take some jumping – and Standing Ovation is a relatively inexperienced horse – there is a chance that they might catch him out. The other possibility is that he is still feeling the effects of his run on Saturday – or indeed, 6 runs in  less than 2 months.

If neither of these prove to be issues, I think Standing Ovation will win – it’s as simple as that.

Ofcourse gauging a ‘value’ price in such circumstances is a tricky thing to do – but I wouldn’t want to be laying him at much more than even money…

If he doesn’t perform today, then it looks a relatively open race…

Cases can be made for most of the filed, but I would be inclined to favour one of the top two in the race: Ruben Cotter or Mr Moss, as I feel that both have scope for improvement.

However, if Standing Ovation does bring his ‘A’ game to the races, I doubt their scope for improvement will sufficient to defeat him.

An interesting race undoubtedly – but not one I want to bet in…

1:35

One horse stands out in this race – and he does so by a country mile…

That horse is Renard .

Quite how Venetia has managed to get him down to a mark of 129, I’m really not sure…

The horse was rated 144 a couple of seasons ago and whilst he’s not really set the world on fire in recent runs, he’s not been running badly either…

I think that Venetia got it into her head that he had reached his peak over 2 miles and if she were to extract any more improvement from him, he would need to be stepped up in trip.

Consequently she has been trying to turn him into a 2m4f horse – and it has not really worked.

He’s capable of running decent race over 2m4f (as he did last time out behind Johns Spirit) – but he’s not capable of competing up to his handicap mark at that distance.

As a consequence, his handicap mark has dropped – and today, he has been dropped back in trip.

So, we have a horse handicapped on it’s form over a distance it struggles with – running over it’s optimum distance. Nice !

I do have a few niggly little concerns about Renard: firstly, I don’t understand why Aiden Coleman is on Venetia’s other runner, Elenika…

It could be that he wants to get to know a horse that is new to the stable – or it could be that the stable thinks he ‘s their number one in the race !
The other possibility is that wily old Venetia is throwing us a curve ball ! I’ve gone for that option ;)

My second concern is the size of todays field –and the possibility of traffic problems.

In truth, there is nothing we can do about that – but with 17 runners over 2 miles on quickish, there won’t be a lot of margin for jumping errors (either from Renard – or from those around him).

My third niggling concern in the presence of Oh Crick…

He won the Grand Annual at the festival 4 seasons ago and when he followed up at Aintree a few weeks later he looked like a horse who might well make in to the top of the 2 mile chasing tree.

That never happened – but the handicapper is finally started to relent with him.

He’s back down to the mark which he won the Grand Annual off – and will today have the quick ground that he needs.

He has a decent 7lb claimer on his back – and has had a recent pipe opener that should mean he is spot on today…

Reading between the lines, I think his trainer Alan King hopes that there might be one final big race in his old warrior - and if that is the case, it will be today.

He actually holds Renard on a piece of form from Newbury last November – so his chance isn’t build totally on the distant past (although Renard did subsequently finish ahead of him at Chepstow).
Simply, at 20/1 I would have been gutted if it was him that pipped Renard – and we know after yesterday how useful a saver can be !!

0.75pt win Renard 7/1

0.25pt win Oh Crick 20/1

2:05

Not many horses rated as high over hurdles as Oscar Whiskey, make the transition to fences. Though that’s probably because not many hurdlers are rated as high at Oscar Whiskey !!

He is rated 167 over the smaller obstacles, and he has performed consistently at that level for a few years.

He just can’t quite make the breakthrough at Championship level – either over 2miles or at 3miles – though he has few peers at the intermediate distance.

It is that distance which he tackles today on his chasing debut – and if he gets round OK, nothing in the field should be able to live with him.

Ofcourse, there is always a chance that he won’t get round – or that he will get round but will make so many mistakes that he chances are severely compromised.

I would be concerned of that possibility more if he was tackling a bigger field – but with just the 4 runners in the race, there shouldn’t be many excuses for poor jumping…

On the book, Oscar Whiskeys biggest danger (apart from the fences !) is Tarquin Du Seuil.

He was a very decent novice hurdler last campaign and a comfortable winner on his chasing debut at Ffos Las.

However as a result of that victory, he has to give 6lb to Oscar Whiskey. He also won’t have the very soft underfoot conditions that he relishes. Of the other two, I would expect The Romford Pele to run a decent race –and he could well turn out to be Oscar Whiskeys biggest dangers.

He ran a fine race on his fencing debut, looking a winner waiting to happen. However, he is rated over 30lbn inferior to Oscar Whiskey over hurdles, which shows the size of the task he faces today, taking him on a level weights.

In summary then, another no bet race – but provided Oscar Whiskey jumps round OK, I would expect him to win this hard held.

2:40

A fiercely competitive handicap hurdle – and I’ve had a couple of stabs at it…

The first of those, is top weight Whisper.

Whilst to an extent, it goes against the grain tipping the top weight in a race full of progressive sorts, I actually think that Whisper might be well handicapped.

He gets to run off a rating of 137 today – but he could easily prove to be a 140 or even 150 rated horse.

He has only run 5 times over hurdles – winning 3 of those and finishing placed in very good races on the other 2 occasions.

On the first of those occasions, he finished behind At Fishers Cross and the New One on very heavy ground at Cheltenham last January.

Novice hurdle form didn’t get much better than that last season – and Whisper looked likely to be involved in the finish of that race until he tired up the home straight.

His other defeat was in the EBF final at Sandown in April. Again it was on heavy ground –and again he tired up the Sandown hill…

Whisper is a now a bit older –and a bit wiser – and the ground wont be as taxing.

I think he will get up the hill –and I think it will take a good one to beat him (even at the weights).

The other one I want on side is Warden Hill.

There is more speculation in him because he is less experienced – and seemingly a slower learner, than Whisper.

He showed decent form as a novice last season and lost his maiden maiden status first time out this campaign, with a quite taking victory at Kempton.

He was given a rating of 124 for that – which looks fair, if not overly generous.

However the thing about Warden hill is his potential for improvement.

He really does look like a horse who might be able to reach a rating a lot higher than his current one.

Whether that will happen today, is another matter – but at 16/1, I wanted him on aboard, in case it is…

There are obviously dangers all over the place  - but I would be particularly fearful of the favourite, Top Gamble.
Again, he looked a horse of immense potential, when winning as he liked at Ffos Las last February…

He has been of the course for along time since - but I some how doubt that he will lack for fitness.

He is trained by David Pipe  -and this race is run in memory of David Johnson, the man who did more than most, to help take the Pipe family at the top of the NH racing tree.

I think you can safely assume the horse will be tuned to the minute.

0.5pt win Whisper 10/1

0.5pt win Warden Hill 16/1

3:15

I have to admit that it is not easy to look beyond Balthazar king in this race…

He has become something of a cross country specialist – and is also in the form of his life. The ground will also be perfect for him today. In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…

However, on the flip side, he is definitely a horse who is best fresh – and this will be his third run in two months. He was also hammered in this race last season by Uncle Junior – so his case is not completely water tight…

A best price of 15/8 seems about right – but I don’t see any margin in it.

Uncle Junior runs in the race again today  - and at a course that he clearly loves, he is a tempting alternative to the favourite.

However, he will be 13 in the new year and his form since this race last season suggests that time is catching up with him…

That is an accusation that has been levelled at Diamond Harry – but he is 2 years younger than Uncle Junior and really shouldn’t be much past his peak.

Ofcourse he is past his peak – but that is down to physical issues – and if Nick Williams has got him anywhere near best today, he really should hack up !

At his peak, Diamond Harry was rated 166 – that is 16lb higher than Balthazar King is currently rated. Today, Balthazar King has to give Diamond Harry 12lb.

Simply, if Diamond Harry can run within 2 stone of his peak performances, he should win this (or go very close).

Of course the question is, can he run to that level..?

We won’t know that for sure until the race is over – but I take a deal of heart from the fact that he has been competing, with some success – in cross country races in France.
Today appears to have been the plan for some time – so I am pretty sure that Nick Williams will have his as right as it is possible to get him.

We’ll know late this afternoon whether that is good enough – but at 8/1 I felt him worth a small risk…

0.5pt win Diamond Harry 8/1

3:50

I have to admit that I was going to leave this race alone…

There looks to be a couple of stunning ‘plot’ horses in it – and I didn’t really want  to take them on (but wasn’t prepared to tip them either !).

First up, there is Quick Jack who will be Ruby Walsh’s’ first ride in this country for 7 months (how amazing is that !).

Second in the Irish November handicap on the flat at Leopardstown off a mark of 83, he could well be thrown in today off just 113 (you can add around 40-50lb to a flat rating when you transfer it to the jumps).

He showed at the Listowel festival that he is effective over hurdles – so he could take some beating…

However, one that could beat him is Edmaaj…

Rated 88 on the flat, he could be even better treated over hurdles on a mark of just 105.

AP gets down to 10st6lb to ride him – he could look so obvious after the event, it will be embarrassing !

Roberto Pegassus is another one that interested me.

Again he represents top connections and could be thrown in off his current mark.
However, my motto is, ‘when in doubt, seek out Venetia !’ –and she too may have one in this,…

The Lone Ranger did his flat racing in France and so doesn’t have an official rating.

However, he won a listed race (beating a UK horse rated 102) and ran in a group 1 race – so I suspect his flat rating would have been significantly higher that that of either Edmaaj or Quick Jack.
He’s run 4 times over hurdle and actually showed some half decent form on the second of those occasions, behind Chemistry Master at Wincanton.

Lone Ranger finished third that day surrounded by horses now rated in the 120s over hurdles - even if not today, a rating of 109 will doubtless look lenient at some point in the future.

He has run once this season, when very disappointing at Ludlow.

Still, Venetia wasn’t in form then – and that run is probably why we are getting 25/1 today.

He’s risky for sure – but I believe that the latent talent is there for Lone Ranger to run a huge race today…

Hi-ho Tonto – away !!

0.25pt EW Lone Ranger 25/1

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chelt 1:35 Renard 7/1

Chelt 1:35 Oh Crick 20/1

Chelt 2:40 Whisper 10/1

Chelt 2:40 Warden Hill 16/1

Chelt 3:15 Diamond Harry 17/2

Chelt 3:50 Lone Ranger 25/1

Mentions

Chelt 1:05 Standing Ovation (P) & Mr Moss (O)

Chelt 1:35 Elenika (S)

Chelt 2:05 Oscar Whiskey (P)

Chelt 2:40 Top Gamble (P)

Chelt 3:15 Balthazar King (P)

Chelt 3:50 Edmaaj (P) & Quick Jack (P)