Daily write-up - Nov 25th

Just the two NH meetings today, at Kempton and Ludlow.

However both are reasonable meetings and I didn’t have look too hard to find a tip…

That was just as well really, as the online security of the Racing Post site was breached over the weekend – and now the site is now in a real mess…

Access to form etc. is taking ages – assuming you can get to it at all.
I hope they sort it out quickly, as I currently feel like a carpenter with a blunt saw !!

Anyway, nothing much else to report today, so I’ll launch straight into the rationale for todays tip – along with a few words on some of the days other races…

Kempton

2:40

Time for Spring is a pretty consistent, mid 120s rated chaser, well capable of holding his own in class 3 company. So seeing him in here off 114 in a class 4 race, made him of immediate interest…

He started this season on a mark of 126 over fences – but a couple of disappointing runs have seen his mark in that sphere reduce to 119.

That strikes me as quite lenient. I think there is a good reason why he’s been disappointing so far this campaign – the ground. Time for Spring needs decent ground – and so far this season, he’s only run on soft/heavy. Simply that would not have suited him…

He actually ran OK first time out at Carlisle, he was still in with every chance at the final fence, but just weakened on the run in.

He was disappointing on his most recent run at Sandown – but that was on truly bottomless ground and I think a line can be safely put through that.

Like I say, I think Time for Spring is well handicapped over fences on 119 – but somewhat bizarrely is even better handicapped over hurdles, where he is only rated 114...

I’ve no idea why that would be. He last ran over hurdles over 2 years ago, but he won that day off a rating of 120…

That would have seen his hurdle rating rise – and whilst I can understand it coming back down in line with his chase rating, I don’t understand why it should be 5lb lower.

It is therefore not surprising that connections are looking to exploit the situation.

In addition to him being well suited by todays ground – and being well handicapped - todays trip also looks ideal, whilst the fitting of blinkers looks ‘interesting’…

I guess there is a chance that he is becoming a little jaded – so I can understand the theory behind the application of some headgear.

In short, he ticks a lot of boxes – and that is without reference to the man on board (or indeed the trainer !) – that is just a bonus…

If I have a fear in the race, it’s that one of the unexposed horses will improve past him.

Dreamsoftheatre looks the most likely to do that – though he has had physical problems in the past, so I wouldn’t necessarily want to be supporting him at cramped odds.

On balance then, Time for Spring looks like a solid tip – and I have therefore staked him accordingly …

This doesn’t mean he will win ofcourse, but it does mean he should run a race and there is sufficient value in his price.

Fingers crossed…

1pt win Time for Spring 8/1

In the opener on the card, I could have been interested in Sgt Reckles – if it wasn’t for the presence of West Wizard…

Ofcourse, as the latter hasn’t jumped a hurdle in public, we don’t actually know how good he is. However he is currently favourite for the Supreme Novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival – so it is reasonable to assume he has been showing a bit at home !

I guess I could have put up Sgt. Reckless EW – as a bet to nothing.

But I suspect that we would only get our money back – and that has limited appeal…

In the 2:05 race, I was tempted by Persian Snow.

He caught my eye on his comeback run at Ascot – but unfortunately, he caught the eye of everyone else as well.

He may well progress from that and win today – but it is a tight race –and  a best price of 3/1 hardly smacks of great value…

In the finale, I as half tempted by Poet…

A listed class performer on the flat, he could be too good for todays rival.

However, he’s not seen the track for a year – and he does have a preference for soft ground.
Furthermore, he faces a couple of opponents with quite a lot of potential in Ranjaan and Fourth Estate.

I suspect this might turn out to be quite a hot little contest…

Ludlow

No tips at Ludlow, though I did get quite close…

Flemi Two Toes runs in the 2:50 race.

Last time out he split Lookout Mountain and Night Alliance in a hurdle race at Huntingdon. Both of those have come out subsequently and franked the form in no uncertain terms.

Even  the horse who finished fourth in the race that day, Elegant Oliver, has subsequently won.

In short, the form looks very good.

Even better, Flemi Two Toes gets to run off a mark 5lb lower today – but there is good reason for that..

He is running over fences today and his form in that discipline doesn’t look quite so good.

In fairness he has only tried fences twice and didn’t do to badly first time up, when finishing being a couple of useful sorts.

However, his jumping technique left a lot to be desired.

It was the same on his only other run over fences.

If he is to make any impression today, he will need to jump better.

Also, todays ground – particularly on a sharp track like Ludlow, doesn’t look ideal.

Flemi Two Toes looks more of a grinder…

I’ll be keeping a close eye on him though  - and if he does perform with any credit today, he is most definitely one to be interested in next time out…

The only other one to really catch my eye at Ludlow, runs in the bumper…

This really is all about the ‘subtle signs’ (I’ve not mentioned them for a while !).

Shantou Tiger is the sole representative at the course today for trainer Donald McCain. He is also the only ride of the day for Jason Maguire…

He has run in a bumper once before – at Bangor (where McCain likes to run his best horses).

He was quite well fancied that day – but ran very disappointingly…

However that was on soft ground: today the ground will be a lot quicker. It was also over 2m1f – today he is dropped back 3f and on a sharper course…

Ofcourse you can never be confident with these sorts – but if Maguire fires him into the lead early, I think you will see a very different performance to last time.

At a double figure price, he may well be worth a speculative punt…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Kemp 2:40 Time for Spring 8/1

Mentions

Kemp 12:30 Sgt. Reckless (O)

Kemp 2:05 Persian Snow (P)

Kemp 3:40 Poet (C)

Lud 2:50 Flemi two Toes (C)

Lud 3:50 Shantou Tiger (S)