Daily write-up - Nov 19th

3 meetings today, at Lingfield and Fakenham in the UK – plus Wexford in the south of  Ireland…

Following on from the Open weekend, I guess the next tipping day was always going to feel a bit like 'the day after the lord mayor’s show’ – and it does !!

It really isn’t the most inspiring set of fixtures – but I try to keep an open mind !

The Fakenham card is poor – though at Lingfield, the issue is more to do with field sizes and incredibly heavy going…

I’ve gone to Wexford for the only tip of the day…

I’m not sure that I’ve ever tipped there before – but I’m not fussy, I’ll try to find a winner anywhere J

I’ll start there with the preview for the day – and with the rationale behind today’s tip…

Wexford

3:15

I’m always quite happy to tackle a low grade handicap chase – but they do come with risks…

The runners are generally of such poor quality, that there is always the chance that one has been set up for a touch.

If that’s the case today, then we are likely to be in trouble – however, if it’s not the case, I think we will get a good run for our money – and maybe even a winner!

Foritsa caught my eye last time out, when running in a similar race at Punchestown…

The travelled that day, like the best horse in the race and approaching the third last fence, it looked simply a question of how far he was going to win by…

However, a mistake at that fence cost him momentum – and within a few strides, he was beaten.

He did ultimately stay on to finish third – but that was the least that looked likely, half a mile from home…

My hopes for a better finishing position today are based on two things:

Firstly; that race was only Foritsas third under rules – and second after a break. As he comes from a very small yard, I would expect him to only really be at his peak today (it often takes smaller trainers a few runs to get their charges completely fit, as they don’t have the facilities to achieve it at home).

Secondly, todays race is over 2 furlongs less. If I’m honest, I don’t think that is the issue – but he certainly seemed to posses enough pace for a drop back in trip not to be an issue.

The talented apprentice Ben Dalton is back in the saddle today, which is also likely to be a help. So at a double figure price, I figured he was worth a risk – even allowing for the fact that we have to guess a little about the opposition….

Looking at the formbook, the most potent opposition looks likely to come Flying Windsor and Dog Barrel Hill.

These 2 fought out the finish to a recent race at Fairyhouse and there shouldn’t be much between them at todays weights.

Of the 2, I would prefer Flying Windsor – but so does the betting.
The other one of particular interest, is Sherika…

He is well handicapped over fences compared to his mark over hurdles – and he should be sharper for a recent outing.

He has been backed already this morning – and I can understand that…

I have to mention Carrigeen Kariega, as I tipped him last season ! However, his stable haven’t struck form yet and whilst I suspect he could be well handicapped, there is a lot of guess work involved.

On balance then, Foritsa is a decent shout at a very fair price.

0.5pt win Foritsa 12/1

The opening race on the card sees last seasons Cheltenham bumper winner make his hurdling debut…

Paddy Power put him in at 2/7 last night – which struck me as quite generous (if such a price could ever be deemed generous !).

You have to think that if he jumps round, he wins…

1/10 this morning looks a more accurate reflection of his chances…

Lingfield

The meeting at Lingfield could actually have been quite good – if a few more horses had turned up !

In a way, the paucity of numbers is understandable. The reading on the going stick is apparently 3.3 – which must mean the ground is like a bog ! 

If a horse doesn’t handle the conditions today, it simply won’t get home…

In the 1:20 race, I could have been tempted by Global Warming…

He made a pleasing seasonal debut at Wincanton after a having had a very disappointing time of it last year.

If he can build on the Wincanton run, he is almost certainly well handicapped.

However, the ground has to be a worry – and the price is 5/2….

The Venetia Williams trained Tarraco is actually more likely to handle the ground – but he has shown no form in this country, so it would require a leap of faith to support him…

At 6/1, he is slightly more tempting – but too much of a guess…

We should have had a tip in the 2:30 race – but 4 runners (effectively 3 ) and the ground, have put pay to that…

Further More caught my eye in the race that Pod finished third in, at Stratford.
He travelled really well until making a mistake at the third last fence - and then tiring.

He’s been dropped back half a mile for today – and I think he will be tough to beat.

However, he does seem to be facing an improved rival in Seventh Hussar (who will  also relish the ground); he’s unproven in the ground; and he’s a best price of 5/2…

Shame…

Finally, Young Hurricane could have been of interest in the 3:20 race – but it’s the same story…

Heavy ground and a short price (5/2).

Add in to the mix top weight, and you end up with another mention…

Fakenham

Aside from 2 horse, I’m struggling to see any merit in the Fakenham meeting.

The 2 horses are Dursey Sound and King of the Wolds.

They contest the novice handicap chase at 2:30 – and it should be a good race.

King of the Wolds is likely to go from the front, with AP biding his time on Dursey Sound.

Of the 2, I slightly prefer Dursey – but as the bookmakers are struggling to split them, at 6/5 the pair, I won’t be investing any cash on the outcome…

  

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Wex 3:15 Foritsa 11/1

Mentions

Wex 3:15 Sherika (P)

Ling 1:20 Tarraco (S) & Global Warming (P)

Ling 2:20 Further More (P)

Ling 3:20 Young Hurricane (P)