After the high octane excitement of yesterday, the offerings are a little more mundane today…
In southern Ireland, Cork hosts the best meeting of the day; whilst there are also meetings at Huntingdon and Carlisle in the UK.
As was the case on Friday evening, I was forced to issue a tip the night before because of pressure on the price…
I really don’t like doing this – but my options are limited…
I can either do what I did; leave it until the morning and accept that the price is likely to have gone – or look to find another horse in the race.
If anyone has a real issue with me tipping the night before - in these circumstances - please let me know.
I would really have liked to issue the days other tip last night as well !!
Night Alliance opened up at 11/1 – but was soon cut.
7/1 is a fair enough price – but it is quite a drop on what could have been achieved.
It goes to show how difficult it is to stay ahead, the way we are playing the game.
Still, there is nothing like a challenge, is there :0
On to the rationale for todays tips then…
Cork
3:25
The high-light of the afternoons racing, is the Cork Grand National.
Run over 3 and a half miles on soft ground, this is likely to be an attritional affair.
Ideally, you want a horse with a light weight and proven stamina.
With only 9st 13lb on his back, Unoccupied meets the first criteria - even if he doesn’t meet the second.
That said, he is only 7 years old – and won a PTP over 3 miles in the soft as a 5 year old, so it will be a little surprising if it is a lack of stamina that caches him out.
Certainly, he plugged on well enough on his seasonal debut in heavy ground at Galway, to suggest todays marathon distance will be within his compass.
Time will tell, I guess…
He showed himself to be a gradually progressive animal last season – when 15 runs during the campaign suggested there is little wrong with his constitution !
It is not unreasonable to expect some improvement in his second season under rules and with a pipe-opener under his belt, I can see him running very well today.
Him aside, I was struggling to find much in the race.
It seems significant that Mark Walsh has his only ride of the day aboard the JP McManus owned Tom Horn. However, that one really didn’t look like he was crying out of today’s trip when fading close home over the 3miles of the Munster national.
You obviously have to be fearful of the JP owned horses in this kind of race, the best of whom may prove to be the bottom horse, Sword Fish.
However, he doesn’t look to have the same potential as Unoccupied, whom I am quite happy to have on board as the tip.
0.5pt win Unoccupied 11/1
In the previous race on the card, Felix Younger is expected to maintain his unbeaten record over fences.
He was a very good hurdler (finished second to Simonsig in the 2m4f novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival) and the early signs are that he could be just as good over fences.
If he doesn’t live up to expectations however, I think Sizing Rio could be the one to take advantage.
He was also a fair novice hurdler – and I suspect he will make a better chaser.
An interesting race to watch, whatever the outcome…
Huntingdon
3:30
Initially, I wasn’t overly taken with the Huntington card – but then, as is so often the case, I looked a little deeper – and hey presto !!
Simply, I couldn’t leave Night Alliance untipped (well, I guess if his price had crashed completely, I could have – but you know what I mean !)
He is potentially a very well handicapped horse, running a very weak race.
A combination I’m always on the look out for J
On the downside, prior to his recent come back run, he had been off the course for 18 months. Additionally, I’m a little surprised to see him running over a trip as far as todays - but I’ll put my trust in his trainer.
Certainly, if I ignore those 2 concerns, he looks a tremendous bet.
He won a competitive chase off a mark of 110 – and today gets to run off a mark of 103.
He also showed that he was in really good heart on his comeback run, where he ran and jumped with great enthusiasm, prior to tiring late on.
Provided that run has brought him on, he really should take the beating today.
As I mentioned, this really doesn’t look the strongest of races, with Dom Lukka, a short priced favourite.
He won over course and distance last time out, but a 10lb rise will make life a lot tougher for him today.
Most of that weight rise will be offset by the claim of his rider – but he is replacing Noel Fehily in the saddle, so I would want 7lb for that !
On balance, the rest of the field look beatable, so provided Night Alliance is on his ‘A’ game (or close to it), I think he will take the beating.
0.5pt win Night Alliance 7/1
Earlier on the card, Smad Place makes his chasing debut.
He is already favourite for the RSA chase at the festival, so connections will be hoping for a big run (bloodless victory !).
It will certainly be disappointing if he is beaten.
In the 2:20 race, I was initially interested in Strawberry Hill.
He ran well in a decent novice chase at Uttoxeter a couple of weeks back.
But what a minefield this race looks to be !
There are at least 3 or 4 in the race who I could see showing much improved form today: Un Anjou, Troufion and Booby Dove all look potentially very interesting.
Strawberry Hill looks the solid option – and I could certainly see him reaching the frame – but with potential dangers all over the place, a watching brief is advised.
As regular readers will know, I love my bumpers – and there is one that really interests me in the finale…
I can’t recall flat trainer, Dean Ivory, having a NH runner before – and Paul Moloney is giving up his Sunday to ride it…
The subtle signs are certainly strong – and I will be watching it with interest…
Carlisle
I tried to find a tip in the staying chase at 3:45 – but I failed…
I did expect to be tipping No Planning on his next run (after a fine seasonal debut at Wetherby) – but I didn’t expect his next run to be over 6 furlongs further !
The one that interests me most in the race, is the bottom weight, Kris Cross.
He is very inexperienced over fences – but is reasonably treated on his hurdling form and could relish todays trip.
However, Monsueir Cadou also has to be of interest.
He was very progressive last season and is Paddy Brennan’s only ride of the day.
It’s difficult to rule out many of the others as well – so on balance, a no bet race…
I could see Snowed In running a fair race in the opener…
I’m not sure quite why (!) but I do like this horse…
His last 2 runs have been over fences – but I’m not convinced he is quite man enough for that job yet.
He will almost certainly travel in the race- so even if he doesn’t win, he is likely to look as if he might !
There are also a couple of interesting small field novice/intermediate chases on he card….
Holywell is a short priced favourite for the first of them – and should win, based on his hurdles rating.
However, he is not an overly big horse so it remains to be seen how he takes to chasing under rules…
Knock a Hand was a disappointment when he was sent over fences early last season, having been a very good novice hurdler the season before.
He will doubtless have been well schooled – and it’s interesting that Richard Johnson travels al the way up to Carlisle for the one ride…
In the 2:40 race, Tap Night has a lot in hand on official ratings – but also a few question marks against him…
Violin Davies is officially the worst horse in the race – but her trainer Harry Fry is sending her a long way to make her seasonal debut.
There must have been other options closer to home – which makes it seem quite an interesting move…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Cork 3:25 Unoccupied 11/1
Hunt 3:30 Night Alliance 7/1
Mentions
Cork 2:50 Sizing Rio
Hunt 2:20 Strawberry Hill
Hunt 4:00 Top Show
Carl 1:00 Snowed In
Carl 1:30 Knock a Hand
Carl 2:40 Violin Davies
Carl 3:45 Kris Cross
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