There are 3 tremendous cards this afternoon, at
Cheltenham and Doncaster in the UK - plus Leopardstown in Ireland.
Unfortunately, overnight rain on top of already wet
ground, means that we will be once again playing a guessing game, with regards
to the state of the going….
My assumption is that it will be on the soft side of good
at Doncaster (there has been 6mm of rain overnight but the ground seemed fine
yesterday) and similar at Leopardstown. Whilst at Cheltenham I expect it to be
pretty desperate (there was 12mm of rain overnight on going already descried as
soft).
Whilst we could obviously do with a winner, I’ve resisted
the temptation to side with a host of short priced selections.
I can make decent cases for two or three at the front end
of the market, but I don’t think there is a lot of margin in their prices – and
that remains the key factor when picking horses…
Instead, we’ve got a 25/1 shot, two 20/1 shots, a 14/1
shot, two 8/1 shots and a 13/2 shot.
Based purely on the odds, we’ll be doing well to get a
winner out of the day - but if we do get one, it should see us in profit for the
day.
Here’s hoping then…!
Cheltenham
1:15
We were on Super Villan when he won on his penultimate
outing at Ffos Las.
I was really keen on him that day and felt post race,
that he would have own despite the carnage that occurred at the second fence
(when half the field came down !).
With the benefit of hindsight, I’m not so sure that would
have been the case as one of the fallers was non other than Wychwood Brook – and
that one went on and won the Grade 1 Peter Marsh chase at Haydock last weekend !
Still, the fences are there to be jumped…
The reason I was so keen on Super Villan that day, was
because I felt he’d got his ideal conditions – 2m5f and mud.
His debut run this season was on quick ground at Kempton
and he was beaten out of sight by Annacotty. However, he looked like a
completely different horse in the soft ground at Ffos Las…
Following his Ffos Las win, Super Villan ran over 3m3f a
Warwick on good to soft ground.
It’s difficult to know whether it was the trip or the
ground that did for him that day, but suffice to say, he finished well beaten. I
am happy to put a line through that run…
Today, Super Villan once again gets his perfect
conditions – and they are conditions that won’t suit all of the runners in the
field.
He was raised only 3lb for his Ffos Las win – so even
though he has to carry 3lb over weight today, he is on a mark just 6lb higher
than for that win.
Despite there only being 2 finishers in that race, the
runner-up, Handsupfordetroit, subsequently franked the form by winning well at
Chepstow.
He now races off a 7lb higher mark, which suggests that
Super Villan remains well handicapped.
It is easy enough to make cases for most of those at the
top of the market. I almost had a saver on Ohio Gold, as I think he is the most
likely winner – but there is no margin in a quote of 5/1.
Instead, I opted to take a risk on Super Villan, safe in
the knowledge that we are on a horse that will relish the conditions and is
receiving significant weight from all of his rivals…
0.5pt win Super Villan
25/1
2:25
I toyed with tipping Harry Topper mid week for this race,
when he was a 10/1 shot – and obviously I’m now a little irritated that I
didn’t…
The trouble is, at that point I couldn’t be sure he would
run, so I figured it better to wait until the overnight stage.
The downside, is that we had to take 50% less on the
price – but at least we know he is running and that the ground is as I would
have wanted…
And I think the ground is absolutely key to Harry Topper.
He needs soft/heavy ground – and so far this season, he’s not had it.
I also think he wants a galloping course, so it is little
surprise that he was beaten out of sight last time out in a 3 runner race on
good ground at Sandown. I expect to see a much better showing this
afternoon.
And clearly, Harry Topper will have to put in a much
better showing – even to just be competitive in this race.
On official ratings he is only the fifth best horse in
the race – yet he has to give between 4lb and 10lb to his rivals.
He faces a tough task, for sure…
However, I think that today will be Harrys Gold Cup. Even
if he wins today, I’ll be a little surprised if he lines up in the big one. As I
said, he wants soft/heavy ground -and a
small field – and he is unlikely to get both of those in March.
However, he
gets them today - and that’s what
matters…
Of his rivals, then Rocky Creek is clearly the one to
beat – however, Harry has a verdict over him, from when the both made their
chasing debuts at Exeter 15 months ago.
A lot of water has subsequently gone under the bridge –
but I would be optimistic that the form will be upheld today.
Similarly, Harry has a verdict over second favourite,
Houblon Des Obeaux, from when the pair met at Newbury last season.
I’m also not entirely convinced that Cheltenham is
Houblons course (despite him wining there over hurdles).
At the weights, The Giant Bolster is the one to beat –
but that is often the case ! He loves Cheltenham – but he doesn’t love soft
ground. He is more than capable of winning today, but I would rather be with
Harry…
Hopefully Jason Maguire can get him jumping well – helped
by the first time cheek pieces. If that does happen then I would be optimistic
that he posses the engine to get him home in front…
0.5pt win Harry Topper
13/2
4:10
Off a mark of just 127, I am optimistic that Lac Fontana
can prove a very well handicapped horse in the finale…
He was listed class on the flat in his native France, and
only ran 3 times over hurdles in his juvenile season last year.
A couple of promising runs behind older horses, were
followed by a commendable 8th place in the red hot Triumph
hurdle…
Having not won a race last season, Lac Fontana was able
to keep his novice tag this season but he shed that first time out, when hacking
up at Cheltenham’s October meeting…
He was given a much sterner test next time up, again at
Cheltenham - but he was no match for The
Liquidator…
Lac Fontana actually ran like a horse that wasn’t
completely right that day, so it is little surprise that he’s been given over 2
months to recover from that run.
Assuming he is able to bounce back to form today, then I
really do think he will take the beating off what appears a very lenient
mark…
Of the others in the race, then I was half tempted by
Totalize.
He was very well backed for the Ladbroke last time out,
but ran a most disappointing race. He will relish todays conditions and if on
song, will take the beating. However, his price of 5/1 is tight
enough…
I would also expect our old friend Hartside to run better
than his 40/1 price suggests. The problem is, he is edging up the handicap and
is likely not quite up to this grade.
However, track and ground will suit him admirably – and I
doubt that will be the case for them all.
He could possibly sneak into the frame - for those of you
who have a feeling of loyalty towards him !!
0.5pt win Lac Fontana
8/1
Elsewhere on the Cheltenham card, I was torn between
Double Ross and Wishful Thinking in the 1:50 race…
I had planned to tip Wishful Thinking – but that was
before the rain came (he would prefer quicker ground).
He still might have too much class for Double Ross –
though the latter will prefer todays conditions…
It’s not just a 2 horse race either, with Shangani a
potential fly in the ointment – and Our Mick a danger to all if recapturing his
best form.
I have to admit to being very annoyed to seeing Reve De
Sivola lining up against Big Bucks in the Cleeve hurdle…
I watched an interview with his trainer, Nick Williams,
after the horse had won the Long Walk hurdle and he was adamant it was next
stop, the stayers hurdle in March… He said that the horse lost last years
stayers hurdle in January, when winning today’s race in a titanic battle with
Oscar Whiskey.
So what does he go and do ? Only run in him in todays
race again - what chance have you got ?!
I actually think that Reve De Sivola can beat Big Bucks
as well – but he is likely to have another horribly hard race if he does (and
that is ignoring Boston Bob and At Fishers Cross).
I’m not sure how this can play out well from our
ante-post perspective – we’ll just have to hope that some how it does
!!
Doncaster
12:55
I’m optimistic that Arnaud can cause something of a
surprise by winning this race against more fancied English rivals…
Despite wining his last 2 races over fences, he remains
under the radar. That is probably because the victories were during the summer –
but the form of them is pretty strong.
In the first of those contests, he beat the 151 rated
Rebel Fitz whilst in the second he beat the hugely talented Steps to
Freedom.
In both races it was notable just how well Arnaud jumped
when put under pressure.
This ability is absolutely key for novice chasers, as it
is when put under pressure that their jumping often goes to pieces.
Following those two wins, Arnaud was put away and only
reappeared early in December, at Downpatrick.
That was in a hurdle race, which he won with the minimum
of fuss, setting him up nicely for a return to the bigger obstacles
Arnaud has a mark preference for decent ground – so the
overnight rain can’t be considered a positive.
However, he also has form on soft, so provided the ground
at Doncaster isn’t; desperate, he will hopefully get away with it…
His 3 main rivals today all have question marks hanging
over them…
Valdez will only be the second runner back for the Alan
King, whose stable has been shut down for nearly 3 weeks. There has to be some
guess work in assessing how he will perform.
Fox Appeal is a decent horse – but dropping him down to 2
miles is risky – particularity on a sharp track like Doncaster
Whilst Caid Du
Berlais will be having only his second run over fences and though he won well
enough first time up, this is likely to be a completely different kettle of fish
for him…
Ultimately, this comes down the fact that I think Arnaud
may have been under rated – and as a quick accurate jumping novice, I think he
has the ability to serve it up to his 3 main rivals…
0.5pt win Arnaud 8/1
The opener at Doncaster looks to be between the novices
Centasia and Elmore Black – unfortunately the market is wise to this and that
sit comfortably at its head.
If forced to chose, I would side with the latter - but
there is no margin in a quote of 9/2…
In the 1:30 I got very close to tipping Bellenos – but I
wanted a little more than 3/1…
I think the race can be narrowed down to the top 4 in the
betting – but once again, this doesn’t help that much !
Lost Shot is probably the theoretical value – but I’ll be
surprised if he can deal with Bellenos, who I’ve chosen to make a Top
Pick.
The top 4 in the market are also likely to dominate the
finish of the River Donn hurdle at 2:40…
I could argue a case for any of the 4 but Racing Pulse is
probably the one I would side with, if forced to…
I obviously wanted to tip something in the Sky Bet chase,
as it’s the feature chase of the day – but I could settle on
anything…
I started with Gullinbursti and Kruzhlinin; then moved on
to Time for Rupert and Native Gallery – whilst victory for the likes of Night in Milan, Unioniste and Mart Lane,
wouldn’t come as a major surprise…
In the end, I consigned it to the ‘too difficult’ tray
!
If absolutely forced to, I would side with Native Gallery
and Gullinbursti – but virtually no result would surprise me !
Leopardstown
2:50
A wide open handicap where chances can be given to a
dozen or so…
I’ve opted for a couple of relatively unexposed runners
in Operating and Living Next Door – and hopefully one of them will prove up to
the task…
Operating is a novice chaser who I’ve had my eye on all
season.
He was a very decent novice hurdler last season and
despite taking a tumble on his chasing debut, I think he has the potential to
become an even better chaser.
His first time out fall was in the race won by Morning
Assembly at Punchestown in October. He was going well enough at the time of his
fall and showed he had suffered no ill effects when finish third next time out
behind Road to Riches and Foxrock.
There was no disgrace in that defeat however as those are
two very decent novices.
In his two most recent runs, Operating has again finished
placed in decent class novice events.
Despite his first time out fall, Operating jumps well for
a novice and if he can get into a rhythm, I would hope he could outrun his odds
today.
The other one I want on side, is Living Next
Door…
We were on him the last time he ran over fences, which
was in the Troytown chase at Navan at the end of November.
Living Next Door fell at the final fence that day, when
trying to put down a challenge to Cootamundra.
He wouldn’t have beaten the winner even if he had stood
up – but that is strong form and Living Next Door has plenty of scope for
improvement…
He could also be suited by the step back in trip, as his
victories last season were all over todays trip.
In a wide open race, hopefully Operating or Living Next
Door can give us a decent run for our money…
0.25pt EW Operating 20/1
0.25pt win Living Next Door
14/1
3:25
This is another scary handicap though it does have a
stand out contender, in the shape of Quick Jack…
He was the impressive winner of a novice handicap hurdle
at the Cheltenham November meeting and yet remarkably, gets to run off a mark
just 6lb higher today…
I have no idea how the Irish assessor can justify such a
small rise – if he were running in England, he would be off a mark 23lb higher
(which I reckon is nearer the correct mark).
Still, I don’t suppose Tony Martin is
complaining…
There is absolutely no doubt that Quick Jack will take
the world of beating - and even at 7/2 yesterday, I considered him as a
saver…
However, I always wanted to be on Leah Claire in this
race and I figured that odds of 5/1 on her to finish in the first 4 (or 4/1 in
the first 5), represented slightly better value…
Quick Jack aside, I actually
think there is quite a compelling case for Leah Claire..
She finished second in this very race two years ago, off
a mark a stone lower than the mark she gets to run off today.
Conventionally, there should be little reason why she
should be capable of bettering that performance 2 years on - but Leah Claire isn’t a conventional
mare…
She seems to be getting better and better with age – as
was demonstrated by her most recent flat campaign.
She started that, back in April, off mark of 73 – and
ended it in September, off a mark of 101. In short, she improved by 2 stone over
the campaign – which puts the prospect of her going one better in this race off
a mark a stone higher, into some kind of perspective.
In fact, if it were a flat race, Leah Claire would have
to give Quick Jack 16lb today – so the fact that she is only giving him 10lb –
less 3lb for Ben Daltons claim – could lead you to argue that she is even well
handicapped with him !
I think that might be pushing it a little – but all the
same…
Following her final flat run in September, Leah Claire
was given time off until she made a most promising comeback over hurdles at the
Leopardstown Christmas meeting. She finished second to Dysios that day – but
hopefully the purpose of that run was to blow away the cobwebs for
today…
In addition to Quick Jack there are a number of other
potential dangers: Gilgamboa, Snake Eyes, The Game Changer and Sullane Chief.
All of them are quite capable of improving significantly enough to play a big
part today – but non of them boast credentials as solid as Leah
Claire.
Ultimately, she might get beaten by a better handicapped
rival – but I will be amazed (and disappointed !) if she doesn’t run a huge race
and hopefully at least claim some prize money…
0.5pt win Leah Claire
20/1
Finally, I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping
Empire of Dirt in the 3:55 race…
He was sent off joint favourite for a big field handicap
at Leopardstown over Christmas but seemed to run on the slowest ground and
didn’t get home.
Over half a mile less today, he has to be of interest –
though I’m a little concerned that Bryan Cooper seems to have deserted him for
the other Gigginstown runner…
Ultimately, with it difficult to get a handle on a quite
a lot of the runners and 8/1 the best price available, I figured he wasn’t quite
worth getting involved with…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:15 Super Villan 25/1
Chel 2:25 Harry Topper 13/1
Chel 4:10 Lac Fontana 8/1
Donc 12:55 Arnaud 8/1
Leop 2:50 Operating 20/1
Leop 2:50 Living Next Door 14/1
Leop 3:25 Leah Claire 20/1
Mentions
Chel 1:50 Wishful Thinking (C)
Chel 3:35 Reve De Sivola (O)
Donc 12:25 Elmore Black (P)
Donc 2:40 Racing Pulse (O)
Donc 3:15 Native Gallery (O)
Done 3:15 Gullinbursti (O)
Leop 3:55 Empire of Dirt (P)
Top Picks
Donc 1:30 Bellenos
