Daily write-up - Nov 29th

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Newbury, Doncaster and Musselburgh…

After the excitement of yesterday – and with the anticipation of a big day tomorrow – I quite fancied a relatively easy day today…

However, when I started looking at the runners yesterday afternoon, I knew that wasn’t going to be the case…

I remember the snooker player, Dennis Taylor, said that after getting new glasses, the snooker pockets looked like buckets…

Well, when I was looking at the races last night, some of the horses seemed to be flashing ‘Tip me. Tip me’ !

Released of some of my self imposed shackles, with regard to price and form lines, the answer to many of the races seemed blindingly obvious – almost scarily so….

Fortunately for you guys, I am a man with many years betting experience, so I know not  to get carried away when lights start flashing…

Ofcourse, it is possible that the game has suddenly become a lot easier for me, following yesterdays success – but it is just as likely that the flashing signifies the oncoming express train of reality, destined to bring me back down to earth…

Wary of that second possibility (!) – I have remained my normal cautious self with the staking.

If we are going to get run over today, then the damage will be limited – and if yesterday was indeed the beginning of the gold rush, there is always tomorrow when we can capitalise properly…

A win/win situation then J

Anyway, I’m a bit short of time today, so I need to keep this short(ish !) – so without further ado, the logic for todays tips – plus a few words on some of the days other contests…

Newbury

1:00

Wings of Smoke won this very contest 12 months ago, off a 5b lower mark.

However, he dotted up that day – and there is little doubt than an extra 5lb wouldn’t have stopped him from collecting.

Ballywatt finished second that day – and actually reopposes today on 4lb worse terms. He also isn’t the most resolute of finishers either – so I’m a little mystified as to why anyone would want to back him in this particular contest (yet he is 5^th favourite).

Following his victory here last year, Wings of Smoke ran third to Johns Spirit at Sandown, in receipt of just 5lb…

That looks pretty good forming light of the subsequent exploits of the runner up - and it also looks pretty good form when you look at the horses that finished around Wings of Smoke that day…

And I think it is quite important that we look back that far to get a proper handle on the abilities of Wings of Smoke.

He is clearly a horse who has problems: he has only run 4 times since the Sandown race – and is reported to have broken blood vessels in one of those contests.

It therefore strikes me as quite significant that he comes into this particular race on the back of a 2 month break. As I’ve said in the past, horses with a tendency to bleed, tend to run better after a break.
It looks to me as if connections have targeted this race in an attempt to follow up last years success – and whilst there are 1 or 2 unexposed sorts in the contest who could make life tricky for Wings of Smoke, I think he sets a fair standard for them to aim at – and is also a fair price for success.

0.5pt win Wings of Smoke 7/1

1:30

A bit like Bohemian Rhapsody yesterday, a lot of the case for Chiberta King today, is based around him being able to transfer his flat form to hurdles…

Chiberta King is a very decent flat horse: he was placed in listed company this summer, and finished fourth is the Cesarewich last month, off a mark of 102…

Based on those performances, a mark of 128 today should be well within his compass…

And better than that, he also has some hurdles form that makes him look potentially well handicapped.

He has only run 4 times over hurdles – but on the third of those occasions, he gave a 4 length beating to Uxizandre at this course. That one has gone on to achieve a rating of 150 over fences – suggesting that Chiberta King might be well handicapped today…

Todays trip and ground could also bring about some improvement in Chiberta King.

He is a confirmed stayer on the flat, so 3 miles over hurdles should be well within his compass.

He is also likely to appreciate todays good ground more than more than the soft and heavy that he has been running on over hurdles so far…

One fear is that his inexperience might catch him out. He is used to big fields on the flat – but a big field over hurdles will put his jumping under pressure. Hopefully he will prove up to the test.

Obviously, in a race such as this, there are plenty of dangers…

Western Warhorse and Mickie are the two I would be particularly fearful of.

However, I do think that Chiberta has the basic ability to win this race – so if everything falls into place, I would be optimistic of a positive outcome…

0.5pt win Chiberta King 9/1

I was half tempted to take on Wonderful Charm with Tanerko Emery, in the novice chase – but there isn’t much juice in a best price of 3/1…

Don’t be too surprised if Tanerko comes out on top though…

The 2:40 race is a cracker, with Easter Meteor looking to gain compensation for his unlucky fall 2 out in the Paddy Power Gold Cup…

To add insult to injury, he has been raised 3lb for that run – although todays race isn’t quite so hot…

Hopefully he will run well (the horse deserves to win a race such as this) but it was Upsilon Bleu who really caught my eye..

I think he has the potential to be a lot better than his current mark  - and connections have brought him a log way for todays race…

Doncaster

1:55

I don’t have access to any racing statistics, but before I tipped Workbench yesterday, I had a feeling that Dan Skelton was doing OK with acquisitions from other yards…

Thanks to one of you guys (thanks Neil !) I now have confirmation that this is the case – after yesterday, I think his strike rate this season is 4 successes from 22 horses.

The bare number is quite good- but what is really impressive, is that all of them have retired at decent prices (between 8/1 an 12/1). Therefore the profit is quite significant.
More than that, he has been very unlucky not to collect with a few more, with no less than 4 of the 22 finishing second; 6 finishing third and 3 finishing 4^th…

That means 17 of the 22 horses have finished in the first 4 – and all at decent prices,

which is truly phenomenal !

We can be sure it won’t last though… I guess the strike rate might – but if it does the prices won’t. Joe Public catches on pretty quickly…

Still, for the time being, we have an edge that seems to have gone generally unnoticed – so we should look to exploit it.

Even with thiose numbers, I wouldn’t back one of Dan Skeltons horses blind – I would need to see a case – but I think a case can be made for Bellenos..

Obviously I have no idea of the value of his form (he has come over from France),

But I can see that he represented the very powerful Maccaire/Rique combination in France and raced at listed level at Auteuil. This all tells me that he was no slouch over there…

A rating of 124 for his British debut seems perfectly reasonable to me – and as he is the only horse Skelton sends up to Doncaster today, I am very optimistic that his already impressive strike rate might get a little better this afternoon…

0.5pt win Bellenos 8/1

3:05

I’ve gone out on a limb a bit here, tipping a 25/1 shot who has never even been placed over hurdels – but it is a very poor race, and I reckon Think is worth a small risk…

Most of my case is based around his last run – which was on the flat at Catterick last month..

Admittedly is was in a very poor race, but Think travelled through the contest like the best horse in the race.

Ultimately, he only finished third – but his finishing position wasn’t helped by his jockey, who left it late to being him over to the stand sides, when that was clearly where the best ground was…

The interesting thing about that run, was that is was Thinks first one in nearly 6 months. It seemed to represent an improvement in his form – but with that kind of gap, it is possible that something happened over the summer (he may have been operated on – or simply matured).

Either way, taken at face value, I think that piece of form gives him a good shout in todays contest – and if he can build on it,. I reckon he could make his dismissive odds look a bit silly…

0.25pt win Think 25/1

In the second race on the card, I would have been quite happy to oppose Mijhaar on his hurdling debut.
There is little doubt he has the class to win this comfortable – if he takes to hurdling – but he is a quirky sort and that is far from guaranteed.

Devon Drum would be the one I would be interested in – but there is little margin in his price of 7/2, if Mijhaar does decide that he fancies the winter game…

Musselburgh

2:55

I intended to leave the Musselburgh card alone – but one horse stuck out to me like a shining beacon…

Palus San Marco makes its debut for Charlie Longsdon today – and he has taken it on a near 2350 mile trip to do so…

The horse has a good level of natural ability: he is rated 78 on the flat and ran to that mark as recently as May.
However, he has been a little disappointing over hurdles during the summer and his mark in that discipline has dropped by a stone over his 3 runs, to its current 100…

Simply, if Longsdon can relight Palus san Marcos flame, I can see it hacking up today…

What I couldn’t understand last night, was how it had been put in a 10/1 shot…

I honestly thought it would open up around 3/1 and be solid at that price.

I figured there had to be a price crash – but it didn’t really come.
OK, we could only get 7/1 this morning ,but potentially, that is still a huge price…

Ofcourse, there is a danger that the money didn’t come because the stable don’t fancy it.
If that is the case, then it won’t win – but then why take it such a long way…?

I don’t know the answer to all of the questions, but I do know that if Longsdon has got it back to it’s best, 7/1 on it for this contest will be one of the bets of the year !!

0.5pt win Palus San Marco 7/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Newb 1:00 Wings of Smoke 7/1

Newb 1:30 Chiberta King 9/1

Donc 1:55 Bellenos 8/1

Donc 3:05 Think 25/1

Muss 2:55 Palus san Marco 7/1

Mentions

Newb 2:05 Tanerko Emery (P)

Newb 2:40 Upsilon Bleu (O)

Donc 12:50 Devon Drum (P)