Daily write-up - Nov 17th

The final day of the Open meeting at Cheltenham, is joined by action from Fontwell in the UK – and Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

The racing at Cheltenham might have looked tricky yesterday but it looks damn near impossible today – though for a different reason…

The races were there yesterday - I just couldn’t find the horses (or so I thought !): today the races just aren’t there – unless you are one of those who likes short priced accumulators (in which case, I’m a little surprised that you are reading my output !).

The 6 race card is composed of three small field conditions races, where the favourite is either odds on – or all but: and 3 massive fields, 2 of which you could almost take a pin to (I have to be careful what I say here, as I’ve tipped in both of the ‘pin’ races !).

The one ‘punter friendly’ contest is the Greatwood hurdle – in which we already had an ante-post pick and to which I’ve added a back-up selection this morning.

As yesterday proved, you never know for sure how things are going to pan out on the day – and I do think I’ve found a few nice bets (but then again, I always think that !). Time will tell, I guess…

Just a quick mention for the blog:

Neil posted any interesting comment regarding whether we/I should be backing/tipping regressive or progressive horses…

I alluded to it in my write-up yesterday (Cross Kennons race) – and I’ve responded to his comment on the blog.
However, it does have the potential to become a more general discussion, so if any of you have strong views, feel free to comment away !

Anyway, on to the preview for the day.

Obviously the main focus is Cheltenham – but we also have a couple of tips running at Fontwell – and possibly of even more significance, both our ante-post Cheltenham bets, will get tested (and quite severely too !) at Punchestown.

Quite a big day all round then…

Cheltenham

1:00

5 NRs there might be (at the time of writing) – but there are still 19 relatively unexposed novice hurdlers in this race – a lot of them making their handicap debuts…

Should be easy enough to sort out then !!

If I’m honest, the race is a little bit of a pin job – but I do think that I might have found one with a live chance and at a decent price…

On his hurdling debut at Ffos Las, almost exactly a year ago to the day, Copper Birch ran the more experiences At Fishers Cross to just over 2 lengths, in receipt of 3lb.

If the 2 were to meet today, At Fishers Cross would have to give Copper Birch 35lb…

Of course, this probably only tells you how much At Fishers Cross has improved in 12 months – but it does give an interesting angle into Copper Birch.

In his second race over hurdles Copper Birch ran a very creditable second to One Connemara – with Three Kingdoms 2 lengths back in third.

Three Kingdoms received 7lb from Copper Birch that day – but he ran a highly creditable third in the final race on Friday, off a mark of 124.

Again, the form line suggests Copper Birch could be a well handicapped horse…

Copper Birch has only run twice more – and has disappointed on both occasions.
However, they were his last and first runs of a campaign – and I’m always prepared to forgive poor runs in those circumstances.

They have also had the benefit of seeing Copper Birch’s official mark drop by 12lbs – so they perhaps weren’t that bad  after all (deepening on your perspective ;) ).

The other thing about Copper Birch is that he’s a horse who looks like he will do better on a sound surface.

He won a PTP on good ground (somewhat fortunately – but even so) – and his way of moving suggests good ground is what he needs.

So, today we have a horse who may be well handicapped, competing on a sound surface and primed for a big run.

I can see angles for a few of the others in the race – but at 20/1, I think there is quite a good case for a small wager on Copper Birch…

0.25pt EW Copper Birch 20/1

1:35

Not really a race that I can get overly excited about (and I hate to think how new sponsors, Skybet are viewing it)…

Just 4 runners is a disappointing turnout by anyone’s standards – even though at least 3 of them are decent animals.

The trouble with these small field races, as we saw on Friday, with Oscar Whiskey, is that they can end up complete farces…

Hopefully that won’t be the case in this race, as Lac Fontana made the running when wining on his seasonal debut – but if he chooses not to go on…

As a Group class horse on the flat – and on decent ground – Sea Lord is almost certainly the best horse in the race and certainly best equipped to cope if it the race does end up a sprint.

As a consequence, it would be difficult to oppose him in this contest – even though I suspect that The Liquidator will end up the best NH horse in the field.

La Fontana will doubtless run a fair race, if he does go on  – and I wouldn’t totally dismiss the chances of outsider Minellaforleisure.

But in a race where tactics are likely to play a big part  in the outcome – and we wont know what the tactics are until the tape goes up, we can’t possible have a tip (or even a mention !)

2:10

Another small field race, where tactics might prove crucial.

In truth, it is probably less so in this race, as My Brother Sylvest will almost certainly provide pace for the race.

The key unknown in this contest is which of the main 3 protagonists will jump best – particularly under pressure…

Again, with a total of  just 2 outings over fences for the 3 of them, it is not something  we can be dogmatic about…

I would always be a little vary of backing a horse making its chasing debut at Cheltenham, so Ted Veal would be the first one off the short list.

Of the other two, I think Raya Star is the better animal - and his jumping was good enough on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter.
He’s no kind of a price – but he is my idea of the most likely winner…

2:40

The third consecutive small field race on the card – though I did actually consider tipping in it…

My initial view, was that Sire De Grugy couldn’t be beaten – even giving weight to the rest of the field.

He took his form to a new level at the back end of last season – and seemed to confirm that improvement, at very least, on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

However, looking at his form in more detail it’s impossible not to be drawn to his run at Aintree in April, when he finished behind non other than one of todays opponents, Special Tiara…

He was beaten 26 lengths that day - and is 5lb worse off at the weights.

Furthermore, Special Tiara has a preference for quick ground (which he will get today) whilst Sire De Grugy prefer soft.

And ofcourse there is the price: Sure De Grugy is a shade of odds on; whilst Special Tiara is 8/1.

How could Special Tiara not be a tip…?
Well, it’s bit like what I was saying yesterday with Monbeg Dude…

There is what you see in the form book –and then there is the interpretation of it…

I think Sire De Grugy ran way below form at Aintree.

It was his first run back from a significant break – and he jumped poorly at a number of fences. There must also be the chance that he wasn’t fully wound up – bearing in mind he had quite a busy subsequent campaign.

In short, I don’t believe the form line.

Of course I may be wrong – and if I am it will appear that I’ve looked an 8/1 winning gift horse in the mouth – but at least I will have done so with open eyes !!

3:15

The best race of the day – and by some margin.

I was very keen on Ifandbutwhynot when I first saw the 5 day declarations for this race – hence the ante-post tip on him.

He was a really impressive winner of the novice handicap hurdle at this meeting, 12 months ago, off a mark of 117. He’s running off a mark 16lb higher today - but he looked like he had at least that much improvement in him at the time – and to a degree, subsequent runs have confirmed this…

He was a comfortable winner of a small handicap hurdle at Musselburgh in February off a mark of 130 – and as a result of that, he was sent off favourite for the County Hurdle at the festival.

He could only finish 9th that day, which was a little disappointing – but I don’t think that he showed his best that day.

He didn’t show his best next time out either in the Scottish champion hurdle, where he took a heavy fall at the last, when beaten.

However, the real Ifandbutwhynot reappeared at Aintree at the end of October and ran a tremendous race in defeat…

It was in my pre-season, but I was quite keen to select him that day. The only thing that put me off, was the fact that he has generally needed a run to put him right in the past.

Sure enough, he cruised into the straight at Aintree, looking sure to be involved in the  finish – but then blew up.
I’m convinced that race will have put him spot on for today – and we know already that he can handle todays course and trip.

The slight concern in my mind is the state of the ground.

When I tipped him earlier in the week, I was excepting the ground to be on the soft side – that clearly isn’t the case.

I would still be hopeful of a good run – but I just wonder if ultimately the ground will find him out…

If it does, then I’m hoping that Flaxen Flare will be the one to take advantage.

He has a confirmed preference for decent ground – as he showed when romping home in the Fred Winter at last years festival.

He has to run off a 15lb higher mark today – but that strikes me as quite fair.
He was massively impressive that day – and as he is only 4 years old, still should have plenty of scope for improvement.

He’s not hit the same heights since that day, which could lull you into thinking that he handicapper has got him.

However, he was a little unlucky not to pick up the ultra competitive Galway hurdle (the ground turned against him): and he looked like serving it up to the top class Jezki last time (until it probably dawned on Davy Russell that running him too close would do nothing for Flaxen Flares handicap mark – or am I being too cynical ?!)

Whatever, I think he is more than capable of running another very big race today –and seems the logical saver to complement Ifandbutwhynot, given the state of the ground.

0.5pt win 0.25pt place Ifandbutwhynot 14/1

0.5pt win Flaxen Flare 11/1

3:50

I’m sure some of you are wondering why I’m prepared to play in the bumper today – when I wasn’t prepared to play yesterday…

There are 2 main reasons: firstly, I think it is a bit easier to get a handle on the form of the main protagonists in todays race: and secondly, I really like the look of Wadswock Court (both the form in the book – and the subtle signs)…

When I was looking at today’s cards on Friday (yes, I am that sad !), it struck me as very odd, that Noel Fehily wasn’t riding at Fontwell…

OK, it’s not Cheltenham , but Charlie Longsdon has 3 well fancied horses running there today – and they are all decent prizes.

I was therefore intrigued to see what it was that was keeping him at Cheltenham – and the answer appears to be Wadswick Court (he also rides Special Tiara – but that would seem to be a spare ride).

I therefore had a  close look at Wadswick Court and was very impressed by what I saw…

He was massively impressive at Huntingdon last time out – and not just because he won – but because of the way he won…

He gave first run and a few lengths to the horse who finished fifth in last seasons Champion bumper and then cut him down in the final furlong to win going away.

That really was some performance – particularly as Wadswick Court didn’t really settle during the race.

Propel Bay has subsequently gone on and confirmed himself a very decent horse by wining a couple of hurdle races; whilst the horse who finished a well beaten third in that race, Chasse the Spud, dotted up on his next run at odds of 16/1.

In short, the form couldn’t look much stronger.

So, I now feel I better understand why Noel Fehily is riding at Cheltenham – and I feel we should support him in this move ;)

My biggest issue (as with Ifandbutwhynot) is the ground. Wadswick Court does look like a horse who would prefer soft ground – and that is born out by the form book.

If he does get away with today ground though, I think it will take a very good one to beat him.

0.5pt win Wadswick Court 9/1

Fontwell

1:50

Lady luck is a wag, isn’t she…?!

Not content with stopping our horses who are 20 lengths clear on the run to the last; or getting our horses beaten by a saver in bobbing finish; or causing inspired outsiders to fall when in with every chance at the second last – she has today decide to make the main bet in this particular race a non runner…!

Now what is really funny about that, is that we are left with 2 savers in the race, which we probably wouldn’t have been on at all if American Spin was running…

How funny is that ?1

Anyway, we are where we are- and there is nothing I can do about it now.

It’s not that I don’; think that Alderluck and Boyfromnowhere have a chance – that isn’t the case. It’s just that my angle into the race was through American Spin – and they were simply the savers in case he didn’t perform as hoped.

I could easily have put him up EW instead – abut then having him declared a NR wouldn’t have been nearly so amusing !!

Enough of this – the cases for Alderluck and Boyfromnowhere:

First things first, the reason I wanted to target this race is because I could see weaknesses in the top 4 in the betting.

Emperors Choice and Camden are making their seasonal debuts – and both are likely to come on for the run; Pettifour looks like one of those regressive horses that we are better off avoiding (!); whilst Bucks Bond seems to have a bit of an issue jumping fences…

Ofcourse any of the 4 could come good today – but at the prices I want to take them on.

My first choice was obviously American Spin – but the two others that interested me where Alderluck and Boyfromnowhere.

Alderluck was the winner of a decent distance chase at Bangor in February. He gets to run off a mark just 6lb higher today; has had a run to blow away the cobwebs and is reunited with talented claimer, Mikey Ennis. He looks a very solid shout.

Boyfromnowhere is more speculative as he has only run twice before over fences.
Last time out he was outclassed at Chepstow, but that was a very decent race and he lost little in that performance.

He now has a handicap mark over fences 5lb lower than his mark over hurdles – and is he can put in a round of jumping, I think that could see him go very close today.

Obviously it is a little disappointing to end up with just the 2 savers in the race – but that happened yesterday at Cheltenham and they didn’t do too badly !

0.25pt win Alderluck 8/1

0.25pt win Boyfromnowhere 8/1

In the following race on the card, I had marked down Dolatulo as a horse to follow after his run against a handicap good thing last time out..

However a burden of 11st5lb in heavy ground and a best price of 11/4 mean he has become just a borderline mention…

Shame.

Punchestown

It’s a huge day for us today at Punchestown, with our ante post picks for both the Arkle and RSA chase running…

I would like to report that both were near certainties to dot up – but alas that isn’t the case !

Both have opponents capable of giving them a severe testing – and there can be little doubt that if they do come through todays races unscathed, our ante post bets will be looking a good deal more attractive.

Objectively I do think that both can win.

Defy Logic probably has the trickier task as he takes on a least a couple of very decent sorts.

But, if I’ve read him right, I think he can take care of them - provided his jumping holds up to what is likely to be quite stern test…

I’m a big fan of Morning Assembly and simply, I won’t hear of defeat for him – until it has happened !
He has a very serious rival today in Don Cossack and if he can see of that one, we will know for sure that we are on a live one for March.

Don is a good horse – but I think Morning Assembly is a better one.
We’ll find out later this afternoon whether I am right…

Oh – I nearly forgot – reigning Champion hurdler, Hurricane Fly also runs this afternoon.

What a way to ‘earn’ £80K !!

Cork

Just so it doesn’t feel left out, I’ve dug out a couple at Cork…

Glam Gerry was contesting the Greatwood hurdle on this day 12 months ago and finished a very creditable fifth off a mark 6lb higher than he runs off today..

Furthermore todays trip should suit him better.

At a best price of 11/1 it is worth a small risk, that he is able to run up to form today.

Finally, I would expect Barneys Honour to run a good race in the handicap chase at 3:40.

He was very progressive last season and a recent run should have him spot on today.

There is not a lot of mileage in the price however…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chelt 1:00 Copper Birch 20/1

Chelt 3:15 Ifandbutwhynot 16/1

Chelt 3:15 Flaxen Flare 11/1

Chelt 3:40 Wadswick Court 9/1

Font 1:50 Botfromnowhere 8/1

Font 1:50 Alderluck 8/1

Mentions

Chelt 2:10 Raya Star (P)

Chelt 2:40 Special Tiara (O)

Cork 2:35 Glam Gerry (C)

Cork 3:40 Barneys Honour (P)