Daily write-up - Nov 28th

It’s quite a busy day today, with 3 NH meetings in the UK, at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter - plus Thurles in Ireland…

Having a couple of days away from the intensity of the tipping, is always a good idea. It gives me a bit of time to stand back and explore different angles.

I used the time on Tuesday to investigate how the mentions were doing this season.

As I’ve probably said, I have a process for finding tips: Throughout the previous day, I pull together a list of horses that I’m interested in.

The following morning, I take the best ones – and make them tips; whilst the ones I have some reservations about, become mentions…

There is sometimes a very thin line between a tip and a mention, so it makes sense for me to periodically review the mentions, to check that I am selecting the right ones from the list…

I had a feeling that the mentions were doing OK, based on the fact that I have mentioned a couple of 20/1 (at the time of writing) winners in the shape of Hartside and Rockchasebullet.

And analysis, confirmed that the mentions were indeed doing OK – If 1pt win had been put on each mention at the price available at 8:30 in the morning, they would have yielded a profit of 27pts.

That equates to a ROI of about 20% - which is about where I would expect to be…

Obviously, if I can achieve that on my general list, I should be able to better it when I pick out the best bets – but that hasn’t happened…

Which begs the question why…?

Looking at the mentions in a little more detail, it would appear that I do very well with short priced horses – and with long priced ones…

I have mentioned 22 horses priced a between 6/4 and 3/1 and 9 of them have won.

That’s a strike rate of over 40% - and a guaranteed profit at those kind of odds…

It’s more difficult to be dogmatic about the higher prices, because wins for Hartside and Rockchasebullet will skew numbers – but that area also showed a healthy profit, because of them…

Where there wasn’t a profit, was in the middle range (5/1–16/1) – and that is because I think I do issue the best middle range horses as tips…

My conclusion from all of this, is that I like to issue tips in nice ‘tip shaped’ packages… (ie. in that middle range)

Ofcourse, there is no issue with this – but there has no be a danger, that if I’m thinking that way, I will issue a tip simply because it is the 'right shape' – not because it is a good bet…

Certainly some food for thought…

In fact, more than that, the findings struck such a cord with me, that I have slightly adjusted the tips I have issued today…

A week ago, Top Dancer and Bohemian Rhapsody would have been mentions because the price was shorter than I would have liked.

Today, they are tips !

Whether this is a wise move, only time will tell.

I’ve staked both very conservatively because I don’t think that there is a lot of theoretical value in their prices.

However, I see both as the most likely winners of their respective races, and as such, they don’t seem under-priced. Just to mention them therefore, seems a bit silly…

The third tip of the day, Workbench, is more classically tip sized – so you don’t need to worry about him in the same way !

Anyway, an interesting day lies ahead (do we ever have any other type ?!).

One final thing: I will open the tipping window again this evening between 5:00 and 6:00…

I resisted the temptation to tip yesterday because the prices seemed too volatile – and it may be the same case again this evening.
However, I would like to retain the option just in case an opportunity does present itself…

Onto the rationale for today tips and preview of the day in general…

Newbury

12:55

To tip or not to tip, that was the question…

There was only ever going to be one horse that I was interested in – and that was Top Dancer…

We were on him last time when he made his debut for Warren Greatrex at Warwick and he ran a reasonable race that day.

He has been dropped a couple of pounds for the run, which is a real bonus and simply, has ticks in just about every box today…

He will be fit; he has perfect ground and trip; he is well handicapped (in my opinion) and he has a top pilot on board…

There really are no chinks in his armour – so in a 6 horse race, what is a fair price…?

If all the horses had an equal chance, then it would be 5/1 the field…

I use that as my start point when I’m generating a tissue for a field and then half that price for the favourite (ie. 5/2) and double it for the outsiders (ie. 10/1) and then ‘tweak’ a little, based on my view of respective chances…

I would make Top Dancer favourite, so 5/2 would seem reasonable.

The opposition is fair – but nothing really jumps out at me…

Polisky is the obvious one, as he is 7lb well-in today, based on his second place at Ascot on Saturday…

However, he should have won that race but didn’t want to – and he only ran 5 days ago… Obviously he could win – but I feel happy taking him on at a short price…

Susquehanna River is another that I’m happy enough to take on..

Like many Twiston Davies horses, he won on his chasing debut after a break – but then didn’t do as well next time out. He now has a bit to prove…

Milarrow is probably the most interesting opponent for Top Dancer.

He ran poorly on his seasonal debut but he has decent form from last season  - and if he improves for the step up in trip, he could well be dangerous today.

At 6/1, I could be interested in him to save stakes…

I would be less interested in the other 2 – so we are now effectively looking at a 4 horse race…

In a 4 horse race, it would be 3/1 the field – with the fav potentially 6/4…

At that price, I would have ducked on Top Dancer - but at 11/4, I think there might actually be a bit of value…

0.5pt win Top Dancer 11/4

1:30

It’s impossible to dissect his race in the same way as the previous one, as there are too many runners and too many unknowns. However, for me, one horse sticks out, Bohemian Rhapsody…

Prior to the most recent flat season, Bohemian Rhapsody was trained by Brendan Powell…

He ran in a few novice hurdles for him, showing a bit of ability and ending the season with a rating of 110…

He transferred to the stable of Seamus Durack at the beginning of the flat season and the move seemed to transform him…

He ran 5 times for Durack during the flat season, winning on the first 3 occasions and finishing a highly creditable fourth in the November Handicap at Doncaster on his final run. His progression saw his handicap rating on the flat rise by 22lb - from 65 to 87…

Today, back over jumps, he is treated as if he was still the same horse that left Brendan Powell’s yard – and yet something significant had clearly happened to him since then…

Ofcoruse, he is not guaranteed to replicate his flat improvement over hurdles – though I can’t think why he wouldn’t…

Also, just because he has 20lb in hand of his current mark, doesn’t mean he is sure to win today – but it will take a good one to beat him…

In short, whilst 11/2 in a very competitive looking14 runner handicap hurdle looks tight - there are good reason for thinking it could actually be quite generous.

Of his opponents, I will only mention I am Colin, who I was half tempted by – probably EW – at 25/1…

Do with that little snippet, what ever you please !!

0.5pt win Bohemian Rhapsody 11/2

The rest of the Newbury card is very interesting, though betting opportunities appear limited…

I think that Paul Nicholls may have a double in the middle races, courtesy of Just a Par and Easter Day – but the market agrees and there are enough doubts to stop them even being mentions, at the prices…

I was initially very interested in Puffin Billy, in what looks an enthralling renewal of the Gerry Fieldan hurdle at 3:15…

I’m sure he will turn out to be much better than his current rating of 143 – but what a hot race this is…

I can’t believe that Chatterbox has got in off a rating of 141. He beat the now 160 rated My Tent or Yours on his hurdling debut at this course – and whilst there may have been excuses for the latter, a subsequent fourth in the supreme novices at the festival, suggests the handicapper was on something when he came up with the rating for Chatterbox. The question with him, is whether he will be fully tuned up for today…

At the bottom of the handicap, there is the totally unexposed Get Back in Line – he really could be anything…

And then you can add into the mix, Chris Pea Green and Ifandbutwhynot, both very talented handicappers who will be more than capable of taking the prize if the potential big guns fail to fire…

Like I say, an intriguing race – but not really one to bet in…

Taunton

1:40

This looks quite a tricky race – and there is a fair bit of speculation involved – but I think that Workbench is worth a small risk at a decent price…

He makes his debut for Dan Skelton today and also has his first run over fences…

He was with Paul Nichols last season and after quite a promising start to his career, ultimately proved a little disappointing.

He probably showed his best form last season, when finishing second to the now 139 rated Pendra. At Plumpton. The horses that finished around him that day, suggest that Workbench ran to a rating close to 120 that day, which suggests he is reasonably enough handicapped today off a mark of 113.

However, the case for Workbench, is based far more around potential than it is around the form book.

He is only a 5 year old, with very little experiences and I am sure that his best days are in front of him.

He certainly has the size and look of a chaser and I’m hopefully that he will be able to take his form to a different level now that he is faced with a more appropriate challenge…

Workbench was a little keen in a few of his races last season – so hopefully he will be able to curb that tendency today.

That said, 2 miles on decent ground on a sharp track like Taunton, looks the ideal place to start him off…

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race – but I’m hopeful that Workbench will prove to be a slightly better class.

Time will tell, I guess…

0.5pt win Workbench 8/1

In the 3:25 race, I would expect Razolenn to get the better of Milosam…

Milosam was ofcourse the saver who denied Pod by a short head, a couple of weeks ago.

In all honesty, I don’t think that is the strongest piece of form ever (nor does the handicapper, who only raised Milosam 2lb for his victory).

Rozoleen was travelling nicely in a much stronger looking race at Fontwell, when he came to grief 3 out.
If he has recovered from that tumble, I would expect him to take the beating today…

Uttoxeter

There is little of note at Uttoxeter - apart from the presence of AP McCoy, ofcourse !

He rides Cloudingstar in the 2:30 race and this one went into my note book when finished just behind Cute Court, at Exeter, last time out…

Obviously Cute Court didn’t exactly frank the form last time (though there might have been reasons for that) but Cloudingstar was returning from an absence and should strip fitter today…

I would expect him to go close – but his current price of 2/1 looks a bit too short to be getting involved (even in the brave new world !)

Thurles

There’s not much of note at Thurles either – just one to keep an eye on…

I couldn’t possibly tip On the Shannon in the 3:20 race…

He’s never been placed and his trainer has gone 52 runners and the best part of a year since he last saddled his last winner…

However, this boy will win this season – mark my words…

Whether it will be today, I don’t know (in truth, I doubt it – but I don’t know). What I do know, is that he will be backed when he does – so keep an eye on the market.

And remember, if not today, then some day soon…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 12:55 Top Dancer 11/4

Newb 1:30 Bohemian Rhapsody 11/2

Taun 1:40 Workbench 8/1

Mentions

Newb 1:30 I am Colin (O)

Newb 3:15 Puffin Billy (P)

Taun 3:25 Rozolenn (P)

Utox 2:30 Cloudingstar (P)

Thur 3:20 On the Shannon (S)