There are 5 NH meetings today, at Newbury, Stratford,
Bangor and Kelso in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland…
Plenty of racing then – but it really is a question of
quantity over quality.
The highest rated horse running today has a mark of 145 –
I doubt that has happened on a Saturday since the TVB season began back in
November…
It was also noticeable just how tight all the markets
were this morning…
Clearly, the bookmakers don’t want to take any chances
and I couldn’t help feel that we might have got better odds if we’d waited a few
hours – something I might explore more next season…
Anyway, we’ve ended up with 5 tips on the day – with 3
coming from the relatively small stable of Fergal O’Brien.
No pressure then, Fergal ;)
Here’s the rationale for the days tips – plus a few other
thoughts…
Newbury
2:20
Only the 8 runners remain in this contest, but it is not
easy to discount any of them…
The betting says as much with the favourite at 5/1 and
the outsider of the field at 10/1.
I arrived at Balzaccio, partly through a process of
elimination – and partly because I liked what I saw the last time him
ran..
Firstly the elimination:
Neither of the top 2 in the weights, Pepite Rose and
Bally Legend, look to have much scope off their current marks. I could see both
running well, but would be a little surprised to see either win…
There should be little between Granddads Horse and Tara
Rose on their run at Wetherby back in November. Granddads Horse came out on top
that day and I would probably just about favour him to do so today – provided
his run a the Cheltenham festival has brought him on and not sent him
back.
Tonys Star ran in the same race as Granddads horse at
Cheltenham - and finished in front of him.
I would expect him to confirm that form – which probably
makes him the biggest danger to Balzaccio…
Greywell Boy has been on the go most of the winter and is
more of a 2 mile horse. He’s not one that interests me today; neither is Ulck Du
Lin. He has been very disappointing this season – and whilst he has dropped
hugely in the ratings and the first time blinkers could work the oracle, you are
guessing if you opt for him…
Which leaves us the Balzaccio:
A decent chaser with Alan King a couple of seasons ago,
he made a promising debut for Fergal O’Brien when finishing third over hurdles
at Wincanton in November.
He didn’t appear again until Southwell 3 weeks ago, when
he finished second in a race won by Galway Jack
He moved really nicely in that race until not quite
getting home, suggesting that most of the old ability was still in
tact.
If that is the case, then he is potentially well
handicapped today – and in a tight looking race where most of the runners seem
to have little room for manoeuvre with their handicap marks – or are completely
out of form – he is worth a small play.
0.5pt win Balzaccio 5/1
2:55
There is clearly a lot of guess work involved in
supporting anything in a race such as this, but I do think that Down Ace looks
quite interesting at a big price…
She was unbeaten under rules prior to taking on Quevega
at Cheltenham last week.
It was no surprise that proved a step too far – though it
was a little surprising how poorly she ran. She never featured in the race – and
I guess that could be because she’s had enough for the season - but if that’s
not the case then she does look very interesting…
She won on her debut in quite a strong bumper at the
Cheltenham April meeting last year and followed that up when successful carrying
a penalty in a bumper at Bangor in May.
She was then put away for the summer before making a
successful reappearance over hurdles at Towcester in November.
A victory at odds of 1/3 in a novice hurdle at Lingfield
later that month told us little – but her subsequent win over a much higher
rated rival when stepped up to listed class at Taunton in December, was more
revealing.
That run showed that Down Ace was definitely still on an
upward curve…
Then came the disappoint run at Cheltenham, where she was
sent off a quietly fancied 20/1 shot. There are a variety of reasons why it
might have occurred – but in following her today, we have to be prepared to
ignore it…
If you do ignore it, then her profile looks very good
indeed – and her handicap mark far from harsh…
It is possible to make a case for any number of her
rivals (which in part, is the nature of this race).
Run ructions Run and Joanne One look potentially the most
interesting – but they both sit close to the top of the market.
At significantly bigger odds, I feel much happier taking
a chance with Down Ace to bounce back from her last run at
Cheltenham.
0.25pt win Down Ace 14/1
4:05
I’ve got to be honest, Seeyouallincoppers was the horse I
wanted to tip in this race…
He has form from last autumn, that ties in with Triumph
hurdle third, Guitar Pete, and makes him look very attractively handicapped off
a mark of 119.
It also seems significant that his trainer, Paul Flynn,
has chosen to bring him over to the UK to run – and booked Barry Geragty to
ride…
The trouble is, all of that stands out so much, that
there is no way the initial 5/1+ quotes were going to last - and at 3/1, he is a far less attractive
proposition…
Ofcourse, money for him means that others are going to
drift – and whilst Dolores Delightful didn’t drift that much, her price did
stand up and it’s possible to argue that she is even better handicapped than
Seeyouallincoppers…
Following a couple of runs in her native Germany, she
made her debut for Nick Williams in the graded hurdle at Taunton that was won by
Down Ace...
And she ran a really nice race, travelling as well as
anything entering the straight, she only gave best over the final 2
hurdles…
It is not unreasonable to expect her to have come on for
that run – and the handicapper has taken a massive chance assigning her a rating
of just 110.
The fact that she has not run for 3 months is a slight
concern – but presumably either that race took a fair bit out of her, or she has
been saved for the better ground.
Either way, I’ll be a little surprised if she is not
ready to go today – and with Dickie Johnson on top, we know that if we’re in
with half a chance approaching the last, we’ve got the right man on our side
;)
0.5pt win Dolores Delightful
6/1
The two horses that interested me most in the 3:30 race,
have both been declared non runners: Storm Survivor and Bucks Bond.
In the case of Storm Survivor, that might well be due to
the overnight rain…
In their absence, I would struggle to choose anything
with confidence.
Roalco Des Farges is a worthy favourite – but probably
beatable. His stablemate Bertie Boru might represent a bit of value – but it’s a
race that I am now happy to leave alone…
Stratford
3:00
Despite his weakness in the market, I think Allerton is
possibly the best tip I’ve put up today (from a ‘value’ perspective).
Following his seasonal debut at Huntingdon in October,
Allerton was a really game winner of a decent chase at Bangor in
November.
He looked beaten turning for home that day, but rallied
to some effect after the last and managed to catch the idling leader.
That race was over 2m5f – and today Allerton has to run
over 3m4f, so there must be some doubt about them getting the trip. However,
based on his Bangor success, I can actually see him improving for the step up in
distance.
That wasn’t the case when Allerton was stepped up in trip
in December, however a bad mid race blunder – and very heavy ground – were more
likely contributors to that below par run.
Allerton was put away following after that and didn’t
reappear until 10 days ago, when he ran over hurdles at Huntingdon.
That was over just 2 miles – a distance well short of his
best - and its purpose seemed simply blow away the cobwebs.
He stayed on nicely to finish fourth that day and I would
expect the run to have put him spot on for this afternoon.
Of his rivals, then I was most interested in Royale
Knight.
He was a very impressive winner at Kelso in December and
subsequently ran well in the Classic chase at Warwick.
I would expect him to relish a return to better underfoot
conditions – but a very tough race in the Eider and top weight this afternoon,
give me enough doubts to swerve him, particularly now that his price has crashed
to 5/2…
0.5pt win Allerton 10/1
In the handicap chase at 4:10, I did consider taking a
chance on What a Good Night.
He was a hugely impressive winner over this course back
in October off a mark of 91.
That victory saw his rating rise to 107 – but 4
disappoint runs later, he is back down to a mark of 92…
The return to this course on decent ground, could very
well see him bounce back to form – and the booking of Ryan Hatch, who takes off
7lb, just adds to his case.
However, there is a chance that it’s not just been the
ground that has been causing him to run so badly (he took a heavy fall on the
first of those runs, so he may have injured himself); plus I would be fearful of
top weight Ballincurrig.
On balance, I decided to just make him a
mention…
Kelso
3:05
This is quite a tight looking handicap chase but there
can be little doubt that Stagecoach Pearl is handicapped to win it – if he is
back to anything like his best form…
Rated as high as 152 in his prime, he gets to run off a
mark of 129 this afternoon.
Ofcourse, that’s for a reason – he’s not been out of
form, but his debut run this season showed that he retains enough ability to go
very close this afternoon.
That was at Wetherby, when he ran second in a decent 2
mile chase off a mark of 135.
His subsequent 3 runs have been disappointing but he has
either been running on ground softer than ideal – or has been unable to
establish an easy lead.
He might struggle for an uncontested lead this afternoon
– but he will be racing on quicker ground – and he has also been rested since
early December (he is a horse who trends to run best when fresh).
In summary, he gets very similar conditions to the
Wetherby race – but gets to run off a mark 6lb lower today.
All things being equal, that should give him a very good
chance of being successful.
Furthermore, non of his opponents really grab me: Jet
Master won well last time - but has been raised 7lb for that win and the race
did fall apart in front of him; Imjoeking and Un Geut Apens both have scope for
improvement - but a back to form Stagecoach Pearl would probably be a bit too
much for them at this stage of their careers…
0.5pt win Stagecoach Pearl
5/1
The feature race on the card at 2:00 is another very
tight knit contest…
If he bounces back to the form he showed at Market Rasen
back in November, then top weight, Gullinbursti will take all the
beating.
He has been a little disappointing since then, but has
dropped a few pounds in the handicap as a result.
It seems significant that Emma Lavelle has chosen to take
him all the way to Kelso for this particular contest…
Bangor
I was half tempted by The Pier in the handicap hurdle at
3:20…
I tipped him earlier in the season when he ran no sort of
a race at Leicester - but he has subsequently bounced back with a couple of
better runs at Warwick and Ludlow.
He is dangerously well handicapped - but I just wonder if
he has a breathing issue…
I could see him travelling very well this afternoon – but
whether he will manage to get home, is a different matter.
Against some unexposed and potentially decent rivals, I
decided a watching brief remained the best course of action.
I think Warden Hill will take a world of beating in the
handicap hurdle at 4:30.
His 4 runs his season have yielded a couple of wins and a
couple of good runs in defeat.
Todays 3 mile trip on decent ground looks to be exactly
what he needs – and his rating of 130 seems quite fair.
It also seems
significant that he is the only runner on the card for both Mick Channon and
Dominic Elsworth..
The trouble is the price – as 3/1 is tight.
That said,
I think he will win, so he can be a Top Pick instead !
Gowran
Park
Just the one race of interest, at 3:25…
Bishopslough was a real eye catcher in a hot race at
Leopardstown at he beginning of this month.
That race was won in scintillating style by Art of
Payroll, but Bishopslough stayed on really well to finish runner up,
That was his first run for a couple of months so I would
expect him to improve for it.
The 2m4f trip is an unknown this afternoon – and his big
weight is not ideal – but I still think he will take the beating.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 2:20 Balzaccio 11/2
Newb 2:55 Down Ace 14/1
Newb 4:05 Dolores Delightful 6/1
Strt 3:00 Allerton 10/1
Kels 3:05 Stagecoach Pearl 5/1
Mentions
Strt 4:10 What a good Night (S)
Kels 2:00 Gullinbursti (P)
Bang 3:20 The Pier (S)
GowP 3:25 Bishopslough (C)
Top Picks
Bang 4:30 Warden Hill
