Daily write-up - Nov 6th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Chepstow and Warwick in the UK – and Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Big fields are the order of the day at all 3 meetings and I feel it is a day where we need to tread carefully…

That said, I could easily have issued a dozen tips – though in all probability, a dozen mentions and no tips, would be a better shout !

As it is, I settled on 3 small tips.

It is still my intention to ramp up the staking in the near future – but not today !

Instead, there will be a bag full of mentions - and you definitely need to be keeping an eye on these today.

To help with that, I’m going to introduce a key for the mentions.

This will describe the main reason why a mention is a mention – and not a tip.

Obviously, price is always an issue (every runner has its ‘value’ price) – but there are other reasons as well.

From now on, each horse on the list of mentions will also have a letter after it’s name, in brackets, which will identify the main reason why it isn’t a tip.

The letters to look out for are:

P – Price

This is when everything is there – but the price is too short. If price is the only significant issue, I will provide a target price in the narrative. If the target price can be achieved more than 10 mins before the off, the horse would have been an official (minimum stake) tip

C – Conditions

I’m not happy with some significant aspect…

This is likely to be the horses fitness; the going or the trip.

In theory, if you were at the races, you might be able to assess the condition of a horse and make a judgement call on its fitness. Similarly, after few races, the state of the ground can be better assessed, so if that is the noted issue, it might be possible to over rule it.

S – Speculative

Sometimes (!) I just like to go out on a limb selecting a horse.

I can’t adequately explain why I fancy it (or half fancy it) – but fancy it, I do !

Cute Court was an example of such a horse yesterday…

Generally, if my speculative mentions are backed, they are worth following. If they drift, leave them alone !

O – Opposition

This is the other side of Speculative.

If the horse I fancy is running against a host of unknowns, I’ll often swerve it as a tip…

These mentions can actually make decent tips – but again, the market is the best indicator of the chances of the other horses in the race.

So there you go – some qualification for the mentions.

I am definitely happy with the introduction of the mention list, so hopefully the above key will also make you all feel a bit happier about interpreting it.

Anyway, there is a busy day ahead, so onto the tips – and mentions…

Chepstow

2:40

This looks a bit of a minefield , but simply, if Mics Delight brings his form of a couple of seasons back to the race, he should win…

At his peak, he was a 135 rated chaser and a 135 rated hurdler.

He ran second over hurdles, in the EBF final at Sandown in March 2011 - and he ran a creditable race over fences behind Hunt Ball at the Cheltenham festival in March 2012.

Non of his rivals can match that level of form…

Unfortunately, last season was a bit of a write off for him…

Like Somersby yesterday, he only ran 3 times and failed to do himself justice on any of those occasions.

As a result however, his handicap mark has dropped quite significantly and he begins this campaign off a mark 10lb lower than he started last season.

He’s shown in the past that he is quite capable of running well fresh – and the fact that he is Victor Dartnels only runner at the track, makes me believe he will be sufficiently tuned up today.

If that is the case –and he retains his old level of form, he will take the beating…

If he doesn’t retain his old level of ability, there are plenty who could take advantage…

The top horse, Manballandall looks interesting – as does the Henry Daly trained Heronshaw.

They are both certainly worth keeping an eye – along with a few others.
But on balance, I am happy to take a risk on Mics Delight, in the knowledge that he should set a decent standard for them all to aim at

0.25pt win Mics Delight 12/1

3:50

Unfortunately, there are 3 horses that interest me in this race – but I only feel I can tip one..

The 3 are Sandynow, Peut Etre Sivol and River D’or.

Maybe I should have tipped all 3 – as I would be reasonably confident we would get a result. Instead I just went for the longest priced one (who is also probably the most risky !!).

In his last 12 runs, Sandynow has started favourite 7 times – and his SP has never been above 5/1…

Yet during this period, he has only won one race. I think he can be described as a disappointing sort…

Connections clearly believe he has ability – and some of his form backs that up.

Having spent most of his career with Henry Daly, he transferred to Peter Bowen in the summer. On his first start for Bowen, he was backed down to 11/8 fav in a 10 runner handicap. They clearly thought they had a well handicapped horse on their hands.

However, he finished well beaten that day – and was pulled up on his only subsequent outing (in a first time visor).

As much as anything, this is a bet that Peter Bowen can get the best out of the horse. His handicap mark has now fallen to 97 – and I’m pretty sure he will relish the 3 mile trip in soft ground.

If he performs to the level I suspect he is capable – he should win this…

Of course he could easily disappoint again, in which case, I would want to be on either Peur Etre Sivol – who is making his debut for his former jockey, Johnny Farrelly; or River D’Or, who finished to eye catching effect on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham…

Lets hope I don’t regret my decision to take the risky option !!

0.25pt win Sandynow 10/1

I nearly got drawn into a tip in 2:10 race on the card…

Initially I was drawn to Vesperal Dream, on his second outing for Paul Nicholls; but then my preference changed to the ex Nicholls trained Roger Beantown.

Eventually, I decide to leave the race alone, as it’s quite a trappy affair and there is little juice in the price of either ‘fancies’…

Warwick

3:25

Top Dancer is a horse that I had my eye on all of last season…

I actually tipped him on his second outing of the campaign, when he travelled like a dream but didn’t get home at Chepstow.

I made my mind up that day that the key to him was good ground – but ofcourse he didn’t get that again during my tipping season…

However he did get it in the spring and duly won a very competitive chase at Cheltenham.

I’m a little surprised that he was only raised 7lb for that win. I would have thought it deserved more.

Additionally, Top Dancer is only a 6 year old – with very limited chasing experience – so there must be scope for further improvement…

All things being equal, I would have been very sweet on his chances for todays contest – but there are a couple of niggling concerns…

Firstly, it is his seasonal debut – and with no great record fresh, that has to be a worry.

Secondly, he has changed stables since his win in April.

He was sold in May and moved to the stable of Warren Greatrex.

I’m actually quite a fan of his previous trainer, Ben Case, so I struggle to see that as a positive move.

However, Greatrex is now is charge of a decent horse who cost £60K – so he is likely to want to justify the price tag and the move.

As I said, Top Dancer has a preference for good ground. If he’s not straight today, he might not get another chance to run on a suitable surface for a good few months.

On balance then, I’m prepared to take the risk that he will be fit enough to do himself justice – and if that is the case, I think he will take the beating…

0.5pt win Top Dancer 11/2

In the opener on the Warwick card, Who’s Jeff catches my eye…

He is clearly a but of a nut case – but he also clearly has talent

Philip Hobbs has kept the faith with him, which is interesting.

If a first time hood manages to settle him down, he could well run a big race…

Next up, Forest Walker looks to follow up last Fridays romp at Uttoxeter.

A 7lb penalty shouldn’t stop him – but different ground and stronger opposition might.

The Potting Shed looked a reformed character first time out – he will certainly give Forest Walker something to think about.
The other one that catches my eye, is the bottom horse, Rockchasebullet. I just get the feeling that he has some unfulfilled potential.

If the race had been a bit weaker, I would be tempted by him – but as it is, a watching brief is advised (or a very small EW play).

Finally at Warwick, it is intriguing to see that Christian Von Der Recke brings over Café Au Lait to make his debut in the juvenile hurdle.

Von Der Recke has brought over some very useful horses in the past – and the subtle signs suggest that this might be another one.

The top 2 are likely to have to be pretty decent if they are going to give him 7lb…

Fairyhouse

There’s not much doing here – though I am half interested in a couple in the later races…

Uno D’Estruval was actually a TVB tip last season, when trained in the UK by Sarah Humphreys.

He ran no sort of a race that day – but  I still didn’t expect to find him so quickly deported to Ireland (and with a much reduced rating to boot).

He’s only a 5 year old, so its reasonable to think his best days should still be in front of him.

I’ll be watching him pretty closely, that’s; for sure..

Finally, All at Once caught my eye last time out – to the point where I thought he might be a tip today.

However, I’ve gone through his form and it is difficult not to come to the conclusion that his last time out run flattered him…

Maybe he has improved – and we’ll find out today – but my financial investment on him is likely to be the absolute minimum !

One last thing.

There is still a bit of activity on the blog – for those of you who want to join in…

I do my best to put the write-ups there as soon as I’ve issued them – so they can provide a focal points for comments.

Obviously this is more likely to happen after a decent day (like yesterday) – but I’m more than happy to field any questions/comments that any of you may have.

In case you’ve lost it, here is a link to the blog: http://tvb2013-14.blogspot.co.uk/

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chep 2:40 Mics Delight 12/1

Chep 3:50 Sandynow 10/1

War 3:25 Top Dancer 11/2

Mentions

Chep 2:10 Vesperal Dream (S); Roger Beantown (C)

Chep 3:50 Peut Etre Sivol (P); River D’Or (O)

War 12:50 Who’s Jeff (S)

War 1:20 Rockchasebullet (O)

War 1:50 Café au Lait (S)

Fair 3:00 All at Once (S)

Fair 3:35 Uno Destruval (S)