Daily write-up - Nov 8th

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Musselburgh, Hexham and Southwell – but only 1 of any significant interest…

More than that, there are only 2 races in which I ever foresaw us getting involved – but I was hopeful that we were going to have a serious bet in one of them…

As is invariably the case, I started looking at the declarations for todays races, at lunchtime yesterday – and one horse stood out like a beacon.

As we know, Venetia Williams hit form with avengence last Saturday – and though she hasn’t had many runners this week, Rydalis confirmed the well being of her stable.

She sends just the one runner, 328 miles to Musselburgh this afternoon.

More than that, the horse in question, Monetary Fund, has made the journey north twice in the past, and has been successful on both occasions.

The sharp track and quick ground suit him admirably – and by my assessment, he looked a very good bet to score again today…

Ofcourse, finding a likely winner is only half of the job – you need an acceptable price to go with it.

By my estimation, Monetary Fund was around a 5/2 shot.

He’s not spectacularly well handicapped (in fact, he is held on running last time out, by So Fine). Furthermore, there are 2 or 3 other sin the race with scope for improvement, so whilst I saw him as the most likely winner of the contest, confidence had to be kept in check.

The prices for the race were issued early – 3 bookmakers had them out at just after 4:00 - and one of them, Paddy Power, had Monetary Fund priced up at 11/2 !!

I ask you, what planet do these odds compilers live on ?

11/2 in an 8 horse race, about a horse who had a tick in nearly every box…

In any other ‘profession’ such action would be classed as gross incompetence !

Anyway, I was pretty confident the price wouldn’t last – and whilst I was briefly given hope by B365 opening at 9/2 – and William Hill at he same price, one by one, the price was cut.

By this morning, when my tipping window opened, the best price on offer was 11/4.

In theory, there was still a tiny bit of value in that price – but I’d lost heart by then…

The trouble is, there is absolutely nothing I can do about this sort of thing.

The bookmakers price up early and take a pittance at the first show prices, so that they can adjust their books.

People are obviously going to play the game, because there is potentially money to be made – but it’s no good for us…

I could have issued at 4:00 yesterday and maybe half a dozen of you would have got on at 9/2+…

The rest of you would have been thoroughly cheesed off about missing the price.

At the end of the day, I have little option other than to let cases like this pass by.

I would still have tipped Monetary Fund at 3/1 this morning (for half a point) – but I’m not prepared to go below that price….

Will he win ? Quite possibly (I certainly wouldn’t want to oppose him)

Is he value ? Probably not. He has little in hand on the book – and is up against some progressive sorts.

Should you consider backing him ? Not if his price drifts close to the off. Connections have travelled a long way – and it is a good prize – but I’ll be surprised if they have managed to get much on him. If they decide that maybe today isn’t the day after all, we could all end up looking pretty foolish…

Anyway, time to move on !

I’ve written quite a lot on a horse that isn’t even a tip – now a bit on the ones that are….

Musselburgh

2:35

The situation with Australia Day last night, was similar to that with Monetary Fund…

He opened up too big (16/1 in a place) and was quickly backed down to a more realistic price (10/1).

Obviously the price movement wasn’t so dramatic – and I think there is still potentially a little juice in the price – so I was still prepared to tip him.

If you wind the clock back a couple of years, then Australia Day would literally be unbackable in this race, off todays mark.

However, he has probably regressed a little since then, so we are looking for him to bounce back to form.

That said, he ran a fair race on the flat as recently as July, so it’s fair to assume that he still retains a decent chunk of ability.

The big attraction for him in this race however, is that the track and ground should be prefect for him

He is a speed horse – he will blaze from the front and the question will be whether he can get home.

If Liam Tredwell can save some of his energy, then I’m hopeful he can…

If not, then I think Saint Thomas might be the one to take advantage.

He was a fair flat performer and has made a seamless transition to hurdles, finishing runner up on his debut and then wining the next twice.

He gets to run in his first handicap today – and has been give what looks like a reasonable mark.

Like Australia Day, he is a horse who likes to get on with things – and I can see Australia Day giving him a nice tow into the race.

For a novice, he also seems to jump very well (touch wood !) – so that should also stand him in good stead on this rise in class.
Simply, he is a horse with some potential, whom I think the market has underestimated…

At the top end of the market, I would be more fearful of Population than Willows Saviour.

The latter was a hugely impressive winner at Ascot last Saturday and running with a penalty today, is effectively 8lb well in…

However, todays race will represent a completely different test for him: 2m on the quick Musselburgh track against 2m4f at Ascot.

He might be up to the job – but with stiffer competition as well, I’m happy to take him on.

0.25pt win Australia Day 10/1

0.25pt win Saint Thomas 11/1

Hexham

Very little caught my eye on the Hexham card…

I tipped Samson Collonges last season and he was a big disappointment.

He has his first run for  rookie Rebecca Menzies today and it will be interesting to see how he gets on. Too many doubts for him to be a tip though…

In the finale A did briefly consider tipping Terry Tibbs however..

That said, it will always be difficult to tip a horse who was completely tailed off for most of his previous outing !

I somehow suspect however, that we will see a different Terry Tibbs today.

He has now got a handicap mark (and a very workable one too) – and has been stepped up half a mile in trip.

Whatever, I doubt we will see Richie McGrath giving the field a 10 length start and then just trundling along in the rear…

Southwell

The Southwell card was hastily added earlier in the week (presumably to replace the one lost at Fontwell) – but, to be frank, I’m not sure why they bothered…

There is very little of interest, apart from maybe the bumper, which is the last race on the card…

Torrington Deal ran a very odd race on his debut at Market Rasen.

He seemed pretty much devoid of ability, getting further and further behind as the race progressed (a bit like Terry Tibbs !).

However, in the final 2 furlongs, he started to run on and ultimately, he wasn’t beaten that far (relatively speaking !).

Ofcourse, I may be reading too much into it – but at 100/1, I’ll be risking a bit of lose change on him, just in case ;)

Finally, tomorrow is likely to be a big day for us…

As I mentioned yesterday – and as was confirmed again last night – we could be struggling to get a price on some of the potential tips.

I am therefore going to open the tipping window for an hour this evening, between 5:00 and 6:00.

I will only be looking at the races where the majority of bookmakers have priced up – and would only intend to issue 1 or 2 tips (the rest would follow on Saturday morning).

If it doesn’t work out, then we can ditch it after tomorrow -  but I feel I need to take some action , and that is the best I can come up with !!

Here’s to a good day ahead

TVB.

 

Tips

Muss 2:35 Australia Day 10/1

Muss 2:35 Saint Thomas 11/1

Mentions

Muss 3:05 Monetary Fund (P)

Hex 1:50 Samson Collonges (C)

Hex 3:55 Terry Tibbs (S)

South 3:45 Torrington Deal (S)