Sunday 10 November 2013

Review of the day

No joy again today…
Ringa Bay ran a fair race, but like the rest of the field, was no match for the winner, Italian Master, who sauntered home unchallenged…
He was one of the horses I identified as a danger this morning – and if he had been available at his SP of 11/1 then, I might have been a little more interested in him.
Instead, he was less than half that price – which just goes to show that drifters do win – occasionally…

However, that certainly wasn’t the case in the next race on the Market Rasen card.
I was surprised to see Gullinbursti sent off 10/11 favourite in what looked quite a competitive heat – and I was right to be surprised by the price – he should have been 1/10 shot !
You will rarely see a horse win a handicap more easily – and I hate to think how the handicapper will react to his romp.
I would guess he will be given a minimum of 10lb – quite possibility a stone – but to be honest, I wouldn’t be keen to take him on next time, regardless…
He looked a horse with a lot of talent – and a big future…

I was very interested to see how events unfolded at Ffos Las this afternoon…
I had been potentially interested in 3 horses – but declined them all, for different reasons…

First up was Victors Serenade, who ran a fair race to finish second in the handicap hurdle.
He seemed to blew up on the home turn before running on again close home – he should be spot on next time out…

Next it was Xaarcet, who also ran a fair race on his seasonal/chasing debut.
He ultimately finished a well beaten fourth, but would doubtless have finished a fair bit closer if he’d not been cannoned into by a horse making a mistake at the third last fence.
Again, he will be of potential interest next time out…

The final one to run was Night Alliance.
We had been on him last Sunday, when he seemed very unlucky to bump into Lookout Mountain.
My issue with him today, was whether he would get home over a 3 mile trip, on heavy ground.
Well, I needn’t have worried…
He was simply different class to his rivals and came home unchallenged by 15 lengths…

That is 2 horses in as many days that I’ve turned down because I was fearful that they wouldn’t handle the prevailing going (the other was Standing Ovation).
I would have been very keen on them both on different ground – and it is something I maybe need to get a better perspective on.
I would have been prepared to take almost any price on Night Alliance today, if he had been running over 2 furlongs less, on slightly quicker ground – so how much ‘compensation’ should I look for in the price, when conditions aren’t perfect ?
The answer -  in these 2 cases at least – is not as much as I do !
Maybe if I had seen the late market movements I would have had more confidence.
Night Alliance was an easy 7/2 shot late this morning – but was a tight 2/1 shot at the off…
A lesson learnt – maybe…

Over in Ireland, Flemenstar won the Fortria chase at Navan – but he was far from impressive…
Normally an electric jumper of a fence, he ballooned many of them on the way to a relatively hard fought victory.
I’ve no idea what Tony Martin has been doing with him on the schooling ground – but if the horse is to fulfil its potential, he needs to stop !
I guess his next run will tell us more…

In the novice hurdle, King of the Picts was never given much chance to beat the market leaders, which was a pity…
The jumping of Very Wood was erratic in the extreme, which mean that Minella Foru ended up quite a comfortable winner…

In the novice chase, Some Tikket was backed into an incredibly short 6/4 at the off (even allowing for a significant NR).
He led most of the way but looked to be coming off second best to The Shepherd King, when he took a fall at the final fence. Hopefully he will prove non the worse for his experience…

Finally, Mala Beach ran a decent race in the feature hurdle.
He could ultimately only finish second to Dedigout but he lost little in defeat – as did our ante-post wager on Defy Logic.

Over a Limerick, For a Finish found himself out of his ground when the pace quickened – and was sloppy over a couple of the fences.
He could do no better than plug on into third place.

Whislt in the novice chase, Ballysteen led the field to 4 out – but was then quickly put in his place by the market principals.
It wasn’t a bad performance though – and he will doubtless find his level once handicapping…


I was considering having a day off tomorrow (I suspect that I could have a busy week ahead! ) – but there are a couple of horses that are interesting me…
However, both are relatively short prices – and running in poor races, so I’ve got a dilemma !
I’ll sleep on the options and let you know at the normal time tomorrow, whether there is going to be any action on the day…

TVB.

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