I’m almost at a loss to know what
to say after today – I really am…
For those of you who weren’t with
me last season, let me explain…
Cootamundra was my ‘cliff’ horse
last year – that is the horse I was prepared to follow over a cliff edge…
I tipped him just about every
time he ran (including come out of retirement to tip him when he ran at
Punchestown in April) and I was absolutely convinced that he had a big handicap
chase in him…
Ofcouse it never happened last
season: his connections chose to campaign him in graded races and as a
consequence, he got a mark about 10lb higher than his ability…
He made his seasonal debut at
Roscommon back in September and ran really well..
I remember thinking to myself
‘oh, not again’ as I foresaw tipping him again all this season, with the same
results as last campaign.
He than ran again Cork just
before the TVB season began – and he ran disappointingly – really
disappointingly…
I have to admit, that was a bit
of relief: the temptation to tip him again had been removed as the horse was
clearly regressing (he will be 11 in the new year).
I even had a wry chuckle to
myself when I first saw the decs for todays race…
I knew I would have been all over
him12 months ago – but fortunately, I am a lot wiser now (sic)…
The rest is ofcourse history…
He came there cantering up the
straight (as is his want) – only this time he went through with this effort and
won…
I really didn’t know what to
feel.
I backed him – as I said I would
this morning – but I also layed him off rounding the home turn.
In a way, I am delighted for the
horse.
I knew he had the basic ability –
but he was just never given the right opportunity (prior to today).
I honestly thought he had missed
the boat – but evidently, his flame still burns bright…
There has been an interesting
‘debate’ on the blog, concerning progressive and regressive horses…
Cootamundra clearly fell into the
potentially regressive camp – and Mark warned not to let go of those types too
soon. If you think you’ve seen something, you
should stick to your guns…
Prophetic words indeed….
Anyway, s**t happens as they say
– and it certainly happened this afternoon…
Just in case you were wondering,
the 2 actual tips in the race ran very decent races:
Living Next Door was in
4th place when he fell a the last; whilst Pass the Hat finished
6th.
Both ran with credit…
The other tip, Barlow, also ran
with credit – but he wasn’t quite good enough…
A bit like Cootamundra, he can
travel through his races and he looked very good leaving the back
straight.
But he doesn’t tend to find much for pressure – and I knew the writing was on the wall, when he was challenged at the second last.
But he doesn’t tend to find much for pressure – and I knew the writing was on the wall, when he was challenged at the second last.
I think he has the ability to win
a race – but he will need a specific set of circumstances: decent ground; a
sharp course and a short run in !!
As seems so often to be the case,
it was a better day for the mentions, and Ratify must go down as one that got
away…
As I said this morning, 5/1 about
a horse in what was effectively a 2 horse race - and where the favourite had a
question mark against him, should have been a risk worth taking…
I could see the scenario in which
he would get beaten – but that didn’t materialise…
Instead, he was happy enough to
sit behind Riddleofthesand and took up the running when that one started to tire
entering the home stright.
Nothing else even remotely
threatened to get involved in the race.
The other 2 mentions, Notarfbad
and Skibabe both ran reasonable races but were comfortably held, with no obvious
excuses…
On that did have an excuse, was
Kings Apollo.
He had nowhere to go rounding the
home turn – but was ran on like a lion up the home straight.
He looked a very unlucky
loser…
Today wasn’t about poor luck
though – it was about poor judgement.
I won’t forget Cootamundra in a
hurry, that’s for sure…
TVB.
As someone who was with the service last year and saw all those previous runs by Cootamundra I think you summed it up honestly Andrew. If Cootamundra couldn't win a novice chase at some point last year, there wasn't much sign of progression to indicate he could win a hot enough handicap in the following year.It would be good to hear what others think and maybe these regressive types are a case by case sort of thing
ReplyDeleteThe problem last season Michael, was that he never ran in a ordinary novice chase…
ReplyDeleteHe was continually pitched into graded events – and ran highly creditably on each occasion.
That saw his handicap mark edge up, so by the end of the season, when he was running in handicaps, his mark was too high…
It’s come back down this season – presumably because the official handicapper also thought he was regressing.
I know that if he had not run last time at Cork, I would have given him one last chance today – but the Cork run was really poor.
That said, a 4 runner race on good ground was never going to play to his strengths…
What saddens me most is now I have to give up blaming the jockey, seems like he might not be fully useless after all.
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