2 NH meetings today, at Towcester
and Exeter…
Obviously, we won’t know for sure
until racing gets underway, but if they had similar rain at todays two venues,
to the stuff that hit my house last night, I can’t see how todays going will be
anything other than testing…
Furthermore, both tracks are
quite demanding as it is, so only horses with stamina will be getting home
today…
Comments continue to be added to
the blog post concerning account closures/restrictions – which is great to
see.
We are building up a really
useful repository of information there, which people will be able to refer to
throughout the season.
As a reminder, I’ve created a
link that particular blog post, on the right hand side of the blog – under the
heading ‘discussion topics’.
If anyone would like anything
else put up there for discussion, then please just drop me a note and I’ll kick
something off, the next time I have a few spare minutes…
Anyway, on to the rationale for
todays tips – along with a few thoughts on one or two other races – plus a Top
Pick, or two…
Towcester
I’ve got to be honest, if
Gorgehous Lliege was trained by anyone other than Venetia, he would have been
staked quite a bit more aggressively this morning…
Based on the form book (and my
eyes !), I think he’s got an exceptional chance today – but my inability to read
Venetia (and I’m not alone in that weakness !) means that I feel I just have to
tread cautiously…
Although only 7, Gorgehous Lliege
has already shown himself a bit of a course specialist at Towcester (a course
that does lend itself to specialists).
In three outings on the track
last season, he managed two wins and a second.
All of those races were run on
heavy ground – so if the going is testing today, he should absolutely love
it…
The last of those victories saw
his handicap mark from 96 to 105 – though he gets to complete off 103
today..
Last seasons runs showed us that
Gorgehous Lliege was a decent horse - but I think he has actually taken a step
forward, form wise, this season – despite not winning…
First time out, he ran an
excellent second to Fine Parchment at Sandown. That one has subsequently gone on
and franked the form by winning a more competitive race off a 5lb higher
mark.
On his only subsequent run of the
campaign, Gorgehous Lliege was backed into favouritism for a really competitive
distance chase at Haydock.
That looked a step too far for
him at this point in this career and he finished well beaten that day.
However, the race was run over a
trip half a mile further than todays contest and Gorgehous Lliege was still in
the lead half a mile from home – so there is also the chance that he simply
failed to stay the trip…
Whatever, back down in trip by 4
furlongs; off a 3lb lower mark – over a course he loves and on ground he should
thrive on, he looks a very solid bet indeed (if it weren’t for the delightful Venetia !!).
0.5pt win Gorgehous Lliege 3/1
(pre R4)
3:10
Those of you with decent
memories, will recall that we were on Freckle Face, the last time he ran…
That was at Ludlow, in what
looked at the time, as if it might be an above average novice handicap
chase…
Well, the subsequent exploits of
the first 2 home that day, have confirmed the suspicion that it was indeed a
very decent race for the grade…
The winner, Bobcatbilly, came out
again yesterday, and running off an 8lb higher mark, was unlucky not to collect
again (as he pulled throughout the race and was still only beaten one and half
lengths); whilst the runner up that day, King Massini, has subsequently come out
and bagged a couple of decent prizes (including one at Cheltenham, last
Friday).
Their subsequent performances,
show the run of Freckle Face that day, in a slightly different light…
Not that I felt he ran too badly,
on the day...
He clearly is limited – but he
performed with a reasonable amount of credit and a 2lb drop in the weights is
quite a nice bonus…
The key today, is whether the
race he is running in, is weaker than the Ludlow one –and I believe it is –
quite significantly weaker…
The main reason for that is
probably because today race is not a novice only handicap (they can be stronger
events).
Looking through the opposition,
the one that really catches my eye, is Carli King…
You couldn’t back him on what
he’s done under rules, but he’s been running in much better quality races over
inadequate trips (a tried and tested route for getting novices decent handicap
marks). He is a PTP winner over 3 miles in the soft – and I suspect he is going
to put in a much improve performance today…
The trouble with him, is that he
is a 2/1 shot – and he has still got it to prove…
If he’s as good as I believe he
could be, then Freckle Face is likely to be playing for a place – however, if he
doesn’t come up to scratch, then I see little else in the field for Freckle Face
to be worried about.
At 7/1 then, I reckon Freckle
Face is a fair bet…
0.5pt win Freckle Face
7/1
Despite the large numbers, it is
difficult to fancy more than 3 or 4 in the opener…
Call the Cops may improve for his
hurdling debut, at Southwell– but he’ll need to; and I would see Major
Millbourne as the best of those with hurdling experience…
However, his bumper form is not
on a par with that of Volt Face – and provided he jumps the hurdles OK (and he
is bred to do so), I think he will take the beating..
A Top Pick…
Faith Keeper should probably win
the following race – after his romp at Huntingdon last week…
However, his price could get
silly, bearing in mind he has 12 obstacles to negotiate, in very different
conditions to last week – plus one or two reasonable rivals to beat as well…
Exeter
Noting too clever here – I just
felt that Headleys Bridge was over-priced at 8/1 in what looks a fairly open
contest…
He was actually backed down to
favouritism on his seasonal debut at Kempton at the beginning of last month, but
disappointed a little, in only finishing third.
That said, it was his first run
for 6 months – and he was right there until the final obstacle – so it stuck me
as quite a satisfactory reappearance.
The money behind him that day
suggested that someone thought he had improved over the summer – and I think it
is worth giving him another chance to find out if that has been the case.
Whilst not spectacular, his form
from the winter months last season, stands up in a race such as this – whilst
the fact he has to carry a relatively light weight, on what is likely to be
quite testing ground, has to be seen as a bonus…
His most dangerous opponent,
looks to be Mixologist.
He made a pleasing seasonal debut
when second at Fontwell last week and although raised 6lb for that, gets to run
off his old mark today.
Provided he hasn’t gone back as a
result of his exertions, he will take a bit of beating…
However, as is always the case
(unless they are Top Picks !), price is everything, and at 4 times the odds, I
think Headleys Bridge is worth a small play to get the better of him…
0.5pt win Headley Bridge
8/1
In the mares handicap chase at
2:20, Stone Light is the obvious one – as one of only 2 in the handicap
proper…
She was decent in France and the
way Venetia campaigned her last season, suggests she will be decent over here as
well…
However, he form thus far is
nothing to get excited about and she could be worth taking on with Midnight Lira
– even though she is 9lb out of the handicap…
This one would have gone very
close, but for falling last time out – and although todays trip is on the short
side for her the very soft ground will make it more of a test of stamina…
Too many doubts to be a tip – but
an honourable mention, non the less…
The 2:50 is a cracking little
race, where I could give a chance to 5 or 6…
The trouble is, they are the
first 5 or 6 in the betting, so it’s not easy to find an angle..
Despite not being massively
impressive in victory last time, Umberto Dolivate strikes me as a horse on the
improve. He has been raised 7lb for that win – but I’m sure he is better than
his current rating of 117.
The trouble is, there could be 2
or 3 others in the race who are also a fair bit better than their current
rating..
Ballinwarrig and Bincombe would
be the 2 I’d be most fearful of – but with Hollow Blue Sky, Ray Diamond and
Moleskin all other possible dangers, Umberto can only be a mention…
Finally, the second Top Pick of
the day…
Kings Apollo is going under the
radar of nobody – but that doesn’t mean he won’t keep winning…
He won first time out this
season, off a mark of just 77 – which gives him endless scope for improvement.
And improve is precisely what he is doing…
Last time out, he won off 88 –
today he gets to run off 95…
Will that be enough to stop him –
I very much doubt it !
Here’s hoping for a great day
ahead !
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Towc 2:10 Gorgehous Lliege 3/1
(pre R4)
Towc 3:10 Freckle Face 7/1
Exe 1:20 Headleys Beidge 8/1
Mentions
Exe 2:20 Midnight Lira (O)
Exe 2:50 Umberto D’Olivate
(O)
Top Picks
Towc 12:40 Volt Face 7/4
Exe 3:50 Kings Apollo
9/4
I realise it's the antithesis of TVB but I bet Gorgeous Liege at 1.71 on betfair to place ,only five runners and three places as non runners don't alter the place terms
ReplyDeleteSeemed like a great bet to me!!
It was a fair shout Dave...
ReplyDeleteMy main issue with betting EW over fences, is the danger of a fall.
Mulling things over, whilst I was producing todays write-up, I did wonder if I should maybe have put up the other 2 tips EW…
I thought they would both run well – but felt that they might also lack that ‘killer’ edge.
As it turned out, it didn’t make a lot of difference – but that was simply because of Freckle faces’ last fence tumble (which kind of illustrates my point !)…
A.