Daily write-up - Dec 4th

There are just the two NH cards today, at Ludlow and Catterick – but compared to the offerings on Monday and Tuesday, they were a joy to behold !

Ludlow in particular puts on an interesting card, with 3 or 4 races in which I might have been able to find a tip.

Ultimately, I’ve just gone for one on the day – but I’m happy enough with that…

As you will have noticed, I issued a ‘tip warning’ message this morning…

This was something that was suggested in the feedback from the survey – and something I’m happy enough to incorporate into the service, if it helps a few of you…

I might even take it a stage further a produce an ‘advanced tip notification’ message prior to any tips going out, which will give you some idea of what to expect during the tipping window..

Obviously things can change quite quickly, but generally the feedback I’ve been getting, is that the more notice and clarity I can provide on the situation with the tips, the better…

Let’s see how things work out…

On the subject of the survey, then replies continue to come in – so thanks again to everyone who has taken time to respond.

Obviously, everyone has their own likes and preferences, so it will be impossible to meet the desires of you all – but generally, the feedback I’m getting is incredibly useful, in both confirming that I’m on roughly the right  lines – and also in getting to know all of you a little better…

The award for the best suggestion so far however, has to go to Reno…

He  has proposed the creation of a set of  TVB souvenir mugs and T-shirts – genius  !!

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble and on to the action, starting with the rationale behind the tip – and also including a few thoughts on some of the days other races…

Ludlow

1:10

A question that I’ve already been asked a few times via the survey, is how do I find the horses that go on my alert list…?

My stock response is that there is no single method – but Freckle Face came off my alert list, so I’ll try to explain how he got on there…

He first came to my attention in a hurdle race at Wincanton, last October…

He led the field that day until running out at the third hurdle. He looked a bit of a nut case that day – but I’m always intrigued as to what happens with those sorts (often, where there is temperament, there is also talent)…

Next time out, he appeared wearing a hood, which presumably was to try and settle him down.

It appeared to work to an extent, as although well beaten, he didn’t run as freely in the race. He never stood much chance of winning –but it still struck me as a step in the right direction…

This was built on  further, next time out when he finished third in a handicap hurdle behind a couple of fair sorts in Home Run and Xaaret.
That run seemed to confirm that he had ability – and wasn’t too badly handicapped…

He had 2 more runs last season, which didn’t tell us a lot – and then returned over hurdles at Ludlow a few weeks back in quite a hot novice event.

He ran a fair race that day, assuming he was likely to come on for the run – so I was very interested to see him making his chasing debut last time out, at the same venue…

There were only 6 runners in the race that day – and Freckle Face clearly had to be careful how well he ran as 3 of them were rated much higher than him (and if he finished too close to them, it could have blown his handicap mark).

In the circumstance, I thought he ran a very ‘interesting’ race…

He raced in third for most of the contest, a good few lengths of the leader, the 138 rated Princely Player..

To my eyes, Freckle Face wasn’t really asked to exert himself that day – and yet still managed to finish in a comfortable third place.

That was the run which saw him move from being s horse in which I had a passing interest – to one that I wanted to follow next time.

Ofcourse, next time is today. He runs in a handicap chase off his hurdles mark of 99.

He’s shown he can be competitive off this kind of mark over hurdles - and I reckon he could be a better horse over fences, particularly now that he has learnt to settle…

The biggest issue with todays contest is that there are at least 3 horses in it who could be much better than their mark..

King Massini, Ultimatum Du Roy and Bobcatbilly.

However, all 3 have significant question marks against them: King Massini is reappearing just a week after quite a tough race – and is being dropped half a mile in trip; Bobcatbilly hasn’t run for a year; and Ultimatum Du Roy is making his British debut…

I’ll be surprised if all 3 under-perform, - but equally, I’ll be surprised if all 3 run up to market expectations…

And that is what makes Freckle Face a particularly good bet.

I see no reason why he won’t run his race – and I think ‘his race’ will be good enough to put him in with a shout.
Whether he is quite up to beating the ‘big 3’ is a different matter – but at 4/1 to place, we don’t have too worry overly about that.

And if he does manage to surpass him self, then the 20/1 win part of the bet would be a real bonus J

0.5pt EW Freckle Face 20/1

The market seems to have pretty much given up on the chances of Union Jack D’Ycy in the 2:10 race – but I thought he looked quite interesting..

Obviously there is a lot of guesswork involved with one, as it’s making its British debut, but I thought it’s French form looked quite good in the context of this race – and an opening handicap mark of 119 certainly looks workable…

If today isn’t the day for him, I suspect he will be worth keeping a close eye on.

  

There is likely to be a lot of pace on in the 2:40 race – and depending on how things pan out, that could well suit Lancetto…

He has run a couple of very dent races recently, so is clearly n good heart.

If it does develop into a war up front, I can see him picking up the pieces late on…

In the bumper that closes the card, the one I would want to be with is the Henry Daly trained Tara Mist…

Daly tends to run some of his better horses at Ludlow – and the booking of Richard Johnson for Tara Mist seems quite significant.

The market suggests it has the Henderson trained (HM Queen owned !) Side Step to beat…

Catterick

There is a nice beginners chase at 1:50, which Holywell ought to win based on hurdles form – but I certainly wouldn’t be taking a short price about him…

Barrakila and Star in Flight look more interesting – whilst Son of Flicka could be a crazy price, if he ran anywhere near his ability level…

Finally, I thought Honest John was off some potential interest in the handicap chase at 2:50 – but he has been declared a non runner..

This should leave the way open for Categorical to score – but he is hardly the most consistent of animals, so the 6/4 on offer has very little appeal indeed…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Lud 1:10 Freckle Face 20/1

Mentions

Lud 2:10 Union Jack D’Ycy (S)

Lud 2:40 Lancetto (P)

Lud 3:40 Tara Mist (S)