Daily write-up - Dec 11th

Just the 2 NH meetings again today – at Leicester and Hexham…

My initial look at the cards yesterday, suggested we were in for a blank day – but when my alerts came through in the early evening, they reminded me that I had been quite taken by the last time out performance of one of the days runners…

After looking through the race in more detail, I figured that whilst it was a bit of a minefield, at the price on offer, the bet was worth making, so we will have some action today after all…

In fact, I was half tempted to issue a second tip – but there isn’t the same margin in the price – and anyway, I always like to have a good mention for the day ;)

So without further ado, onto the rationale behind the days tip – and a few words on some of the other runners, that have caught my eye.

Leicester

3:10

As I’ve just mentioned, The Pier really caught my eye, last time out, on his debut for the Anna Brooks stable…

That was in a fair handicap hurdle at Fontwell and The Pier travelled really well through the race that day, until appearing to blow up, rounding the home turn.

As The Pier was returning from 6 months off the track, that would make sense - particularly as his small stable could well struggle to get one cherry ripe on a first run after an absence.

With that run under his belt – I am optimistic that The Pier will be able to run to the line today…

If that is the case – then I can see The Pier running very well today.

Certainly, from a pure handicapping perspective, he is weighted to go close, off a mark of just 119.

The Pier was rated 127 18 months ago, when he was under the care of David Pipe –and at the time, there was an expectation that he could go on to big things.

However, that never happened and evidently, his owners have decided to cut their loses and move on…

He was snapped up for just £4.5K at the Ascot sales in June – and that could prove to be a good piece on business.

He certainly wouldn’t be the first horse to leave a big name stable for a smaller one and to benefit from the different environment and regime - and his first outing for his new trainer suggested that just might be the case…

In a trappy race, there are certainly plenty of dangers – with the most interesting runner undoubtedly the David Pipe trained 3 year old, Garde Ville.

It is very unusual to see a juvenile taking on his elders so early in the season – but the Pipes are clearly looking to take advantage of the weight for age allowance that he will receive.

It is impossible to get a handle on him through the form book – but he does look very interesting…

He might well prove different class to the opposition – but at over 8/1 to place, The Pier would still produce a decent return, even if he could only finish second J

0.25pt EW The Pier 33/1

Hexham

I did toy with a second tip today – and the horse almost burdened with the responsibility, was Robin’s Command, who runs in the 2:20 race…

He was an unofficial mention the last time he ran, when he was backed down from 7/1 early, to 15/8 at the off.

He finished unplaced that day – but I’m pretty sure that was simply because he refused to settle in the race.

The handicapper has dropped him 5lb for that run, meaning that he gets to run off a mark of just 74 today.

I’m sure he has much more ability than that mark suggest - but if he doesn’t settle in his races, he will never be able to prove it…

He has been backed again this morning - but is still available around 5/1.

My suggestion would either be to back him at that price and lay off in running just over 2: or wait until the race is underway and be prepared to back him at a lower price – provided he settles…

If he doesn’t run his race today, then Decent Lord looks one who could take advantage – though again, his price from last night has now evaporated…

In the previous trace on the card, Honest John looks interesting. He still seemed to be going OK when coming down last time in a fair race at Market Rasen. He is handicapped to go close today - but 7/1 could be considered no more than a fair price.

In the 2:50 Sacre Toi is potentially interesting over hurdles, off a mark 12lb lower than his current chase rating.

Once again however, the market is wise to his chances – and 4/1 is nothing to shout home about.

Finally in the last race on the card, the twice raced maiden Cottiers Den catches my eye…

You couldn’t fancy him on his runs under rules – but a literal interpretation of his PTP form makes him look quite interesting…

Doubtless connections will know what to expect on his first run in a handicap – so if the money does come, I suggest you take note…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leic 3:10 The Pier 33/1

Mentions

Hex 1:50 Honest John (P)

Hex 2:20 Robins Command (S)

Hex 2:50 Sacre Toi (P)

Hex 3:20 Cottiers Den (S)