Daily write-up - Dec 19th

2 NH meetings today, at Towcester and Exeter…

Obviously, we won’t know for sure until racing gets underway, but if they had similar rain at todays two venues, to the stuff that hit my house last night, I can’t see how todays going will be anything other than testing…

Furthermore, both tracks are quite demanding as it is, so only horses with stamina will be getting home today…

Comments continue to be added to the blog post concerning account closures/restrictions – which is great to see.

We are building up a really useful repository of information there, which people will be able to refer to throughout the season.

As a reminder, I’ve created a link that particular blog post, on the right hand side of the blog – under the heading ‘discussion topics’.

If anyone would like anything else put up there for discussion, then please just drop me a note and I’ll kick something off, the next time I have a few spare minutes…

Anyway, on to the rationale for todays tips – along with a few thoughts on one or two other races – plus a Top Pick, or two…

Towcester

I’ve got to be honest, if Gorgehous Lliege was trained by anyone other than Venetia, he would have been staked quite a bit more aggressively this morning…

Based on the form book (and my eyes !), I think he’s got an exceptional chance today – but my inability to read Venetia (and I’m not alone in that weakness !) means that I feel I just have to tread cautiously…

Although only 7, Gorgehous Lliege has already shown himself a bit of a course specialist at Towcester (a course that does lend itself to specialists).

In three outings on the track last season, he managed two wins and a second.

All of those races were run on heavy ground – so if the going is testing today, he should absolutely love it…

The last of those victories saw his handicap mark from 96 to 105 – though he gets to complete off 103 today..

Last seasons runs showed us that Gorgehous Lliege was a decent horse - but I think he has actually taken a step forward, form wise, this season – despite not winning…

First time out, he ran an excellent second to Fine Parchment at Sandown. That one has subsequently gone on and franked the form by winning a more competitive race off a 5lb higher mark.

On his only subsequent run of the campaign, Gorgehous Lliege was backed into favouritism for a really competitive distance chase at Haydock.

That looked a step too far for him at this point in this career and he finished well beaten that day.

However, the race was run over a trip half a mile further than todays contest and Gorgehous Lliege was still in the lead half a mile from home – so there is also the chance that he simply failed to stay the trip…

Whatever, back down in trip by 4 furlongs; off a 3lb lower mark – over a course he loves and on ground he should thrive on, he looks a very solid bet indeed (if it weren’t for the delightful Venetia !!).

0.5pt win Gorgehous Lliege 3/1 (pre R4)

3:10

Those of you with decent memories, will recall that we were on Freckle Face, the last time he ran…

That was at Ludlow, in what looked at the time, as if it might be an above average novice handicap chase…

Well, the subsequent exploits of the first 2 home that day, have confirmed the suspicion that it was indeed a very decent race for the grade…

The winner, Bobcatbilly, came out again yesterday, and running off an 8lb higher mark, was unlucky not to collect again (as he pulled throughout the race and was still only beaten one and half lengths); whilst the runner up that day, King Massini, has subsequently come out and bagged a couple of decent prizes (including one at Cheltenham, last Friday).

Their subsequent performances, show the run of Freckle Face that day, in a slightly different light…

Not that I felt he ran too badly, on the day...

He clearly is limited – but he performed with a reasonable amount of credit and a 2lb drop in the weights is quite a nice bonus…

The key today, is whether the race he is running in, is weaker than the Ludlow one –and I believe it is – quite significantly weaker…

The main reason for that is probably because today race is not a novice only handicap (they can be stronger events).

Looking through the opposition, the one that really catches my eye, is Carli King…

You couldn’t back him on what he’s done under rules, but he’s been running in much better quality races over inadequate trips (a tried and tested route for getting novices decent handicap marks). He is a PTP winner over 3 miles in the soft – and I suspect he is going to put in a much improve performance today…

The trouble with him, is that he is a 2/1 shot – and he has still got it to prove…

If he’s as good as I believe he could be, then Freckle Face is likely to be playing for a place – however, if he doesn’t come up to scratch, then I see little else in the field for Freckle Face to be worried about.

At 7/1 then, I reckon Freckle Face is a fair bet…

0.5pt win Freckle Face 7/1

Despite the large numbers, it is difficult to fancy more than 3 or 4 in the opener…

Call the Cops may improve for his hurdling debut, at Southwell– but he’ll need to; and I would see Major Millbourne as the best of those with hurdling experience…

However, his bumper form is not on a par with that of Volt Face – and provided he jumps the hurdles OK (and he is bred to do so), I think he will take the beating..

A Top Pick…

Faith Keeper should probably win the following race – after his romp at Huntingdon last week…

However, his price could get silly, bearing in mind he has 12 obstacles to negotiate, in very different conditions to last week – plus one or two reasonable rivals to beat as well…

Exeter

Noting too clever here – I just felt that Headleys Bridge was over-priced at 8/1 in what looks a fairly open contest…

He was actually backed down to favouritism on his seasonal debut at Kempton at the beginning of last month, but disappointed a little, in only finishing third.

That said, it was his first run for 6 months – and he was right there until the final obstacle – so it stuck me as quite a satisfactory reappearance.

The money behind him that day suggested that someone thought he had improved over the summer – and I think it is worth giving him another chance to find out if that has been the case.

Whilst not spectacular, his form from the winter months last season, stands up in a race such as this – whilst the fact he has to carry a relatively light weight, on what is likely to be quite testing ground, has to be seen as a bonus…

His most dangerous opponent, looks to be Mixologist.

He made a pleasing seasonal debut when second at Fontwell last week and although raised 6lb for that, gets to run off his old mark today.

Provided he hasn’t gone back as a result of his exertions, he will take a bit of beating…

However, as is always the case (unless they are Top Picks !), price is everything, and at 4 times the odds, I think Headleys Bridge is worth a small play to get the better of him…

0.5pt win Headley Bridge 8/1

In the mares handicap chase at 2:20, Stone Light is the obvious one – as one of only 2 in the handicap proper…

She was decent in France and the way Venetia campaigned her last season, suggests she will be decent over here as well…

However, he form thus far is nothing to get excited about and she could be worth taking on with Midnight Lira – even though she is 9lb out of the handicap…

This one would have gone very close, but for falling last time out – and although todays trip is on the short side for her the very soft ground will make it more of a test of stamina…

Too many doubts to be a tip – but an honourable mention, non the less…

The 2:50 is a cracking little race, where I could give a chance to 5 or 6…

The trouble is, they are the first 5 or 6 in the betting, so it’s not easy to find an angle..

Despite not being massively impressive in victory last time, Umberto Dolivate strikes me as a horse on the improve. He has been raised 7lb for that win – but I’m sure he is better than his current rating of 117.

The trouble is, there could be 2 or 3 others in the race who are also a fair bit better than their current rating..

Ballinwarrig and Bincombe would be the 2 I’d be most fearful of – but with Hollow Blue Sky, Ray Diamond and Moleskin all other possible dangers, Umberto can only be a mention…

Finally, the second Top Pick of the day…

Kings Apollo is going under the radar of nobody – but that doesn’t mean he won’t keep winning…

He won first time out this season, off a mark of just 77 – which gives him endless scope for improvement. And improve is precisely what he is doing…

Last time out, he won off 88 – today he gets to run off 95…

Will that be enough to stop him – I very much doubt it !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Towc 2:10 Gorgehous Lliege 3/1 (pre R4)

Towc 3:10 Freckle Face 7/1

Exe 1:20 Headleys Beidge 8/1

Mentions

Exe 2:20 Midnight Lira (O)

Exe 2:50 Umberto D’Olivate (O)

Top Picks

Towc 12:40 Volt Face 7/4

Exe 3:50 Kings Apollo 9/4