Daily write-up - Dec 18th

Two meetings today, at Newbury and Ludlow…

I’m not quite sure where those days off went ! They seem to simply flash by…

Maybe it’s because I didn’t really take them off: there was the interesting post on bookmaker accounts closures/restrictions and the idea for the ‘mini service’.

I think I need to learn to switch off a bit better !

Anyway, on those two matters:

There really has been some good stuff put on the thread concerning bookmaker accounts closures.

I suspect that those of you who are interested, have already taken a good look (and maybe left a comment or two). For the others, I really would encourage you read what has been put up.
The comments made by Dan and Steve in particular, could be of huge assistance to anyone trying to protect a bookmaker account…

With regard to the Top Picks:

They get under way today, with one selection.

Generally these will be horses at short prices. I expect them to win – and whilst the market may not be 100% accurate, it’s not stupid either, so don’t expect any fancy prices !
The Top Picks will be listed at the very end of the mail – for anyone who is interested.

I will record the best BOG price at the time of issue – just for comparison purposes – but will track their profitability again BSP.

All Top Picks will be staked with a single point to win (couldn’t be simpler, could it ?!)

Anyway, on to the rationale behind todays tip – Tornado in Milan.

There were actually 3 horses I considered tipping today – but he won the battle (because his race looks the weakest – and he looks likely to run to form).

Obviously, you’ll get a few words on the other 2 as well (one became the Top Pick and the other a mention).

Ludlow

1:20

This looks like a 4 horse race to me – with the protagonists the top 4 in the betting…

Of those 4, I would favour Tornado in Milan and Pearls Legend most (well done to the market !) – with Tornado in Milan, edging the verdict…

I tell you this, so you can better understand why I deemed 10/3 (or even 3/1) as a good enough price to get involved at…

Simply, if the 4 horses I was interested in had equal chances, 3/1 would be the right price (with no margin). Therefore 3/1 on the one I fancy most, must be a good bet (to my eyes, at least !).

Tornado in Milan made his chasing (and seasonal) debut over todays course and distance, back in October.

He may have finished last of 4 that day, but he still ran really well – losing out by less than 4 lengths at the line.

Just in front of him that day, was Oyster Shell. That one went on to win its next race – a race in which Pearls Legend finished a very promising third.

Good run though it was by Pearls Legend, simply, the form book says he should be held by Tornado in Milan today, at the weights…

The issue with the other 2 in the race, who I feel have decent chances, is that they have both risen in the handicap this season – and were beaten last time out, off marks below the mark they run off today.

The suggestion therefore, is that the handicapper has their measure…

My main concern in with the race, is that both Riddleofthesands and Tornado in Milan like to dominate their races.

As a consequence, Paul Moloney is going to have to be quite cute when he decides how to play thing today.
However, Moloney is more than capable of being cute, if he wants to – and the strength in the market of Tornado in Milan, suggests that he might well be cute this afternoon.

Here’s hoping !!

0.5pt win Tornado in Milan 10/3

In the previous race on the card, I could have been very interested in Benbens as a standard tip.

However, his price just continues to fall !

On initial inspection, the race looks really competitive, but I can kind of see where the Benbens supporters are coming from…

His hurdle form suggests he could be must better than todays mark – and the both the money for him – and Nigel Twiston Davies ability to bring one back after a long absence, suggest that he is going to be the one to beat.

The first ever Top Pick !

At last nights prices, Big News might also have been a tip today…

He faces some quite stern opposition – mainly in the shape of King Massini – but there are good reason for being prepared to take that one on (he ran less than a week ago).

Aside from the price, my main issue with Big News today, is the ground…

I think he wants it softer than it is.

Ofcourse he might get away with it – and if his price was a couple of points bigger, I might be prepared to take a risk.

But with solid opposition and questionable conditions, he can only be a mention…

Newbury

In the opener (assuming you get to read this in time !), I nearly made Dawalan a Top Pick…

I struggle to see what is going to beat him – but unfortunately, so do the bookies…

I don’t want to be dipping into the area of odds on shots – even for the Top Picks – but I would make him an odds on shot to win (just about !).

The 12:40 race is another trappy contest – but one in which I would expect Gas Line Boy to run well.

He was a good winner on his seasonal debut at Exeter and followed that up by running third in a better race at Haydock.
Off the same mark today, I would again expect him to run well – but I would be fearful that one (or even two) might get the better of him, in what looks quite a strong field…

For those that really like to chance their arm, I reckon All but Grey will run better than his 100/1 quote suggests, in the maiden hurdle at 1:10.

He put in a promising effort on his debut under rules at Exeter last month – and if he builds on that, he should be more than capable of out running his odds.

Whether he is capable of winning – or even placing – is a different matter, but maybe the creative amongst you can find a way of trading him on Betfair…

Finally, there is a very good Graduation chase, at 2:15.
I was really looking forward to seeing O Faolains Boy making his chasing debut – but unfortunately he has been declared a NR…

In his absence, I would expect Gullinbursti to win.

Almost a Top Pick – but just a little too much doubt…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Lud 1:20 Tornado in Milan 10/3

Mentions

Lud 2:25 Big News (C)

Newb 12:40 Gas Line Boy (O)

Newb 1:00 All but Grey (S) 

Newb 2:15 Gullinbursti (P)

Top Picks

Lud 12:50 Benbens 2/1