Daily write-up - Dec 12th

It’s a busy day today, with meetings at Huntingdon, Newcastle and Taunton in the UK – plus Tramore in Ireland…

First things first: apologies for dragging out the tipping for so long this morning…

I realise it’s pain (I was staring at oddschecker for nearly 2 hours !) – but there is little I can do about it…

For whatever reason, many of the bookmakers don’t price up the Irish races until after 10:00.

If I was only tipping in Ireland, we would know where we stood - but as I wanted to tip in the UK as well, it resulted in a long tipping window…

One advantage of keeping the window open until 10:15, was that we were able to get on a couple of drifters at Huntingdon…

The main issue with tipping at 8:30 in the morning, is that I feel we are tackling the market when it’s at its tightest…

The horses that were put in too long have been backed down: but those that were put in too short, haven’t yet drifted…

At least today we were able to take advantage of the market correcting itself…

I ended up tipping 5 horses in 4 races today…

The staking will show you which one I’m keenest on – and I really do think we got a good price.

I get so fed up watching the prices evaporate on the horses I fancy in the UK races, it made a refreshing change to see the price remain constant on one I fancied in Ireland (until I tipped it of course ;).

Obviously, it doesn’t mean it will win – but I can promise you that if we could get 14/1 about horses like Lady Olwyn every day, we would finish the season very happy J

Anyway, on to the rationale for the tips – and a few other words on the days action…

Tramore

3:05

Let’s start with the best bet of the day !

Those of you with decent memories will recognise a few of the horses running in this race, as Foritsa put them to the sword when winning for us Wexford last month…

Filling the places that day, were todays first and second favourites: Dog Barrel Hill and Another Palm – so we know where we stand, form-wise…

Lady Olwyn had a successful time of it as a handicap hurdler, at the back end of last year.

She picked up 3 races from August to November, and her handicap mark rose as a consequence from 87 to 107…

She also ran reasonably well off that mark, when finishing fourth in a more competitive event at Punchestown.

In short, that mark didn’t look beyond her over hurdles…

After being pulled up in another race at Punchestown last December, Lady Olwyn didn’t run again until making her chasing debut at Sligo in October.

Despite her long absence, she ran really well that day, racing with enthusiasm and jumping well until lack of fitness eventually found her out…

Following that run, Lady Olwyn was pitched in against Defy Logic over an inadequate 2 miles at Naas.
She clearly had no aspirations of winning that race, but non the less performed very creditably to finish a staying on fourth – and in the process got further fencing experience. It also enabled todays jockey, Ger Fox, to get a feel for her…

Today Lady Olwyn is running in much more suitable company – and is back over her preferred trip of 2m4f.

She has to carry 11st12lb – but Ger Fox will claim off a very valuable 7lb…

It really does look to me as if she has been teed up for this race – and at 14/1 she represents an excellent bet.
Fingers crossed she is able to follow in the footsteps of Foritsa and keep my unblemished record in south east in tact ;)

1pt win Lady Olwyn 14/1

12:35

I could be wrong, but I reckon this is a 2 horse race: Sunday Serenade v  Supreme Ballerina. And if that is the case, then 4/1 about one of the protagonists, is very good value…

More than that, I actually think we are on the one who deserves to be favourite…

The 2 horses met last time out in the mares bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting…

Whilst the form book will tell you that Supreme Ballerina finished in front of Sunday Serenade, any one who actually watched the race would tell you that Sunday Serenade looked the better animal.

She raced with the pace for the whole race, only weakening out of things up the Cheltenham hill…

Supreme Ballerina on the other hand, was under pressure for much of the journey and only collared Sunday Serenade in the final l00 yards of the race (when the former was easing off).

Ofcourse, 8 flights of hurdles could make things very different today – but I suspect the price discrepancy has far more to do with the fact that Supreme Ballerina is trained by Willie Mullins.

I’m happy enough either way – I know what my eyes saw – and I know that Sunday Serenade is a very good bet as a consequence…

0.5pt win Sunday Serenade 4/1

Just a quick mention for Getoutwhenyoucan who runs in the 2:05 race…

I’m sure dropping him back to 2 miles, is the right thing to do – though I would have much preferred softer ground. Also, Tidy Zag was a massively impressive winner at Cork last week – and with just a 6lb penalty – even over a half mile shorter trip – I’m not prepared to take him on today…

All that said, Getoutwhenyoucan is quite a strong mention…

Huntingdon

1:30

This is a really trappy looking contest – and as such, maybe I should have left it alone – time will tell !!

However, I just felt that there were quite a lot of ‘talking’ horses in the race – and whether they are able to live up their hype, remains to be seen…

The likes of Prompter and Springinherstep would definitely fall into this category; whilst Roberto Pegasus, Keltus and Kharazan are all ‘eye-catching’ for different reasons…

Maybe the same can be said of Chat Room…

On his seasonal debut, he was made quite short priced favourite for a race that is proving to be a rich source of winners…

The race was won from the front, by Hawkhill, but amongst those placed, were Saphir du Rheu and Ut Majeur Aulmes.

Both of those have subsequently come out and been hugely impressive winners…

The interesting thing about the race, is that entering the straight, Chat Room was upside those two and seemingly going even better – before all 3 of them faded.

The Sandown ground was pretty desperate that day and  the suggestion was that he badly needed the run.

Back on decent ground and on a quick track, I think he could just do his rivals for toe today…

That said, I think it is worth taking a tiny risk on another in the race…

Fergall is making his seasonal debut today - and over a trip that is arguably too short for him.

However as a proven front runner and will almost certainly try and steal a march on his rivals today. If he is given too much lee way, there is a chance that he could just hold on…

Certainly his form from last season looks pretty useful – and as he is still only 6, he should be able to improve even further this campaign.

I view him mainly as an insurance bet for Chat  Room – in case he does steal the race.

Because one thing is for sure, if he s half a dozen lengths clear going down the back straight, he’ll have a very good chance of doing so !

0.5pt win Chat Room 8/1

0.25pt win Fergall 20/1

In the first race on the card, I could have been interested in Thoresby at the opening show of 10/1…

I guess the fact he’s now 4/1 won’t stop him winning ! – but it has stopped me from tipping him.

The presence of Time for Sprig in the race doesn’t help either.
He was a big disappointment when we were on him last time – and even with the tongue tie applied today, I would have to take a watching brief…

The big race of the day is the Peterborough chase due off at 2:00.

We effectively already have an interest in the race in the shape of Captain Chris…

We are on him for the King George – and in reality, we need a comfortable win for him today, to give us much hope of collecting on that bet..

I actually think that a peak form Captain Chris could win the race quite comfortably – but whether that is what we will see, is anyones guess…

Certainly if he’s not close to his peak, he is unlikely to win.

The early money for Riverside Theatre looks significant, as he is officially the best horse in the race at the weights; whilst I would make the progressive Module, the most likely winner, if he can repeat the form he showed last time at Exeter, when splitting Somersby and Cue Card.…

The other 4 could all be given a chance of some sorts – which goes to show the job that the Captain has on his hands…

Like I say, I think he could be up to it – but I’ll be cheering him on without any financial investment today…

Flemi Two Toes runs in a visor for the first time in the 2:30 race and whilst I could see that improving his chances, I think he needs slower ground/a stiffer track to be seen at his best…

I did consider tipping Wadswick Court in the 3:00 race.

I was very taken by his bumper win at the course back in October – and if he settles better than he did last time at Cheltenham, he must run well…

However there are just too many unknowns in the race to risk tipping him at 4/1.

He could win – and he could win well – but he will have to do so as a mention…

Newcastle

1:50

The final tip of the day – or the first one, depending on your perspective !

There is nothing particularly clever about tipping Rupert Bear: simply I felt he had a decent chance in an open race and was just too big at 14/1…

The concern with him appears to be the ground: all of his best performances last season were on ground that was at least soft.

However, there is nothing in his form that categorically states he wont go on quicker ground – plus, just how fast can it be in Newcastle in December ?!

If you take out the doubt over the ground, then I actually think he has a very good chance.

He made a very promising chasing debut at Carlisle at the end of October, where he jumped particularly well for one with so little experience.

He has been dropped 2lb for that run – and provided it has brought him on as you would expect, he should run very well today.

Certainly he was progressive enough over hurdles last season  - and has the size and scope to do even better over fences.

A case can be made for pretty much all of his opponents – with Olympian Boy the one who I would be most fearful of.

However, on balance, I am happy enough with Rupert Bear – and very happy with the price we got J

0.25pt win Rupert Bear 14/1

In the chase at 2:50, I did consider giving Talkin Thomas another chance after his disappointing run last time at Market Rasen…

However that run was really disappointing – and whilst todays reduced trip should help – he was never in that race at any point.

The ground had turned very soft that day – so maybe that was the reason - but at 7/1, I didn’t feel compelled to find out…

Of potentially more interest is chasing debutante Radio Nowhere. He ran well over hurdles at Doncaster last time, but again the price of 5/1 looks on the short side – bearing in mind the risks…

Taunton

This is quite a disappoint card…

The 2 I’ll be keeping a particular eye on, are Workbench in the 1:40 race and Further More in the 3:10 race.
The former was a nice winner for us last time out – and could go in again today. However a best price of7/4 makes very little appeal.

Further More hasn’t been a tip yet (just as well !) but he has been mentioned a couple of times…

He looks like a horse with breathing issues to me – and whilst a drop to the minimum trip might help him – I wouldn’t be taking 3/1 about him to find out if it does !!

Here’s to a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Tram 12:35 Sunday Serenade 4/1

Tram 3:05 Lady Olwyn 14/1

Hunt 1:30 Chat Room 8/1

Hunt 1:30 Fergall 20/1

Newc 1:50 Rupert Bear 14/1

Mentions 

Tram 2:05 Getoutwhenyoucan (O)

Hunt 12:30 Thoresby (P)

Hunt 2:00 Module (O)

Hunt 3:00 Wadswick Court (S)

Newc 2:50 Radio Nowhere (P)