Daily write-up - Dec 20th

Once again there are 2 NH meetings today: this time, at Ascot and Uttoxeter…

Apparently, Brad Pitt was 50 on Wednesday…

That cheered me up a bit J

I digress…

Another couple of decent meetings today – with the Ascot card in particular, full of interesting runners…

We originally had bets in 4 races – but one of the tips has been declared a non-runner, so we are now down to 3.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few words on the some of the other action…

Ascot

1:30

We were on Bellenos when he made his UK debut at Docnaster, at the end of last month…

He ran a fair race that day, in fact rounding the home, turn he seemed to be going almost as well as eventually easy winner, Off the Ground.

However, whereas that one stayed on strongly up the Doncaster straight, Bellenos weakened out of contention, eventually finishing a well beaten seventh.

The handicapper has dropped Bellenos 2lb for that run, which will help. But of more importance, he should now be cherry ripe.

Furthermore, he will be running today on soft ground and over a 2 mile trip – and from what we saw at Doncaster, that looks likely to suit him much better…

Obviously our evidence is limited, but the way he travelled through the Doncaster race, suggested to me that he could be a fair bit better than his current 122 rating – we’ll find out if that is the case today…

If he does come up short, then the one I think most likely to take advantage, is the Philip Hobbs trained Orabora…

He has very limited experienced (only 5 runs under rules) and is making his chasing debut today – but he has already shown form that suggests he could become a very decent horse…

First time up over hurdles, he defeated the now 127 rated Roger Beantown; he was in the process of serving it up to the now 132 rate The Italian Yob (whom he was giving 10lb to) when he took a fall at the third last in this next outing over hurdles: and on his final outing of the campaign, he tried to give 19lb to the now 147 rated Saphior De Rheu at Taunton.

Off a mark of 120 today, all of those form lines suggest that Orabora has at least a stone in hand of his current mark – provided he jumps OK today…

His seasonal debut this campaign wasn’t so good – but it looked that day as if the run was very much needed.

If he picks up the thread from last season, then I suspect that even Bellenus is going to have to be very good indeed to beat him….

0.5pt win Bellenos 8/1

0.5pt win Orabora 6/1

3:40

OK, I have to accept that there is a bit of speculation involved here (!) – but simply, I don’t see why Eddie Harty would bring over Joshua Lane for this bumper, when there will be tens of opportunities for him to run ‘at home’ over the Christmas period…

I acknowledge that it is nearly impossible to get a proper handle on his form – let alone compare it to the form of his rivals today.

However from what we have seen so far (a single outing in a bumper at Naas), he appears a very promising sort.

In the Naas race, he finished very well, to split representatives from the powerful Mullins and Meade yards – despite having to concede the benefit of racing experience to both.

It was a run that showed Joshua Lane has a good deal of talent – and I honestly can’t believe that he couldn’t have picked up a bumper in Ireland – so why travel all the way to Ascot with him..?

The booking of Barry Geraghty also suggests to me that connections mean business.

Obviously I might have read it all wrong - and maybe his owner just fancied a day out shopping in Knightsbridge – but if that’s not the case, I will be a little surprised if Joshua Lane doesn’t put in a very big performance this afternoon…

0.25pt win Joshua Lane 11/1

 In the opener on the Ascot card, Such a Legend might be worth a small interest at a very big price…

Consensus is that he was lucky to defeat Beat That in a bumper at Kempton last season – and he probably was (his jockey stole a big lead at the start of the race).

However, if Beat That was in todays race, he would be favourite – so taking the form  at face value (which is sometimes a good idea !), Such a Legend can’t be a 33/1 shot…

Volnay De Thaix will probably win the 2:00 race…

He has been impressive in his 2 hurdle races to date and looks likely to take high rank amongst the seasons novice hurdlers…

However, in receipt of 3lb, Prince Seigfried might be worth a small play at big odds.

Rate 106 on the flat, he showed last time out at Huntington, that he had transferred at least some of that ability to the NH game.

Provided he handles the ground, I could certainly see him going well…

There’s not quite the odds I would like, to risk a tip, but I still think Up to Something could provided a small shock in the 2:35 race…

However, his ability to do so, will depend to a large extent on how the race pans out.

He should have an uncontested lead – and if that is the case –and he can get his jumping into a rhythm, his higher rated opponents just might struggle to get past him…

He is definitely of some interest – and rates quite a strong mention…

In slightly different circumstances, I could be interested in Whisky Yankee in this…

I reckon he has the ability to defy top weight – and should be spot on following his seasonal debut.
The question is whether connections will want to blow a mark of 129 in a £10K race…?

If he is to be sent over fences after this run (which must be possible), then they probably won’t be too bothered.

If however he is to stay over hurdles – a low key run and a couple more pounds off his back, could see him close to bottom weight for a much more valuable pot…

My feeling is that he won’t be receiving the full AP treatment this afternoon…

Uttoxeter

1:50

I’m hoping I’ve found one here – but time will tell, I guess…

When I first looked at the race, my feeling was that I had to take on Cyrien Star under 12st 5lb in the Uttoxeter mud – having his fourth outing in 6 weeks…

He may be up to it (and having a 7lb claimer on his back will doubtless help) – but it is a big ask, and at even money, he makes little appeal…

The question was however, which one to take him on with…

I was initially drawn to Halley - the former winner of a grade 1 chase in France.
However, he has been so out of form for such a long time, it really would take a huge act of faith to tip him…

Looking at the weights for the race, one horse stands out.

I Know the Code sits at the foot of the weights, on a mark of 10st3lb – receiving at least 10lb from all of his rivals and a whopping 2st 2lb from Cyrien Star !

On certain days, that wouldn’t overly concerned me – but the ground at Uttoxeter can get very heavy and over todays 3 mile trip, I suspect that every pound will count.
The sensible place to look for a selection was therefore the bottom of the handicap…

However (and this is the really good part !), I’m not just tipping I know the Code because of the weight he has to carry…

He actually won a handicap in the Uttoxeter mud as recently as February – and yet amazingly, he gets to run off a mark 3lb lower today.

He can therefore be considered a well handicapped horse…

And better than that, he ran with a deal of promise last time out, when fifth, again at this track.
Having got outpaced at the end of the back straight, he stayed on with some purpose that day, to finish fifth – strongly suggest that he would relish the extra 3 furlongs of today race…

So, with all of those positives – and at such a big price, why have I only staked him 0.25pt EW ?

I don’t honestly know ! I have to make these decisions quite quickly – and that seemed like the sensible call…

I think you can tell from the write-up that I think the case for him is a little better than the staking would suggest ;)

0.25pt EW I know the Code 25/1

Midnight Request is a fascinating runner in the opener on the card…

He has shown very little in 3 novice runs but makes his handicap debut today off a mark of just 90…

He was 7/1 on the opening shows last night – but is a best price of 9/4 now !

Whether that move is justified, depends on where the money has come from.
If it is connections money, then he will probably hack up.

The late market moves should be very revealing. Provided he doesn’t drift out, I would expect to see him successful…

I think that Wuff can make a successful debut over hurdle in the 2:50 race, following a very promising bumper run at Haydock…

However, the market kind of agrees and in a race where a few can be given a chance –and with his hurdling technique unproven - 3/1 doesn’t make too much appeal…

Finally, I was interested in both Black is Beautiful and Bennys Well in the 2:55 race – but the price of neither holds sufficient appeal to consider getting involved, in what looks an open enough contest…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 1:30 Bellenos 8/1

Asc 1:30 Orabora 6/1

Asc 3:40 Joshua Lane 11/1

Uttx 1:50 I know the Code 25/1

Mentions

Asc 1:00 Such a Legend (S)

Asc 2:00 Prince Seigfreid (O)

Asc 2:35 Up to Something (P)

Uttx 12:50 Wuff (P)