Wednesday 18 December 2013

Review of the day

It was back down to earth with a bump, this afternoon – quite literally, as Tornado in Milan took a tumbling fall at the very first fence…

Such are the risks of NH racing, I guess.
In fairness, we’ve not done too bad with fallers, so far. I can only recall Lemons Gent taking a tumble, when he looked as if he might collect.

Whether Tornado in Milan would have collected today, is a different matter.
If I’m honest, I don’t think he would have done.
He wasn’t as strong in the market as I would have liked in the those crucial few minutes before the off – and I would have expected him to finish a couple of lengths in front of Pearls Legend in the race – everything being equal…

If that had been the case, he would still have had a rear view of Lost Shot, who won by a relatively comfortable 14 length margin…

Venetia Williams hey – how do you read her ?
Lost shot was up 11lb from his debut victory – and 5lb higher than his last 2 defeats.
His chances weren’t compelling – and his 3/1 price this morning, not particularly attractive.

Yet as is so often the case with her runners, he produced massive improvement out of nowhere, to win as he liked.
The market didn’t expect it either with him drifting to 6/1 at the off.
A very difficult lady to read – of that there is little doubt…

Anyway, in the previous race on the Ludlow card, Benbens must be considered very unlucky, not to have got the Top Picks off to a great start…
On the final circuit, he was twice short of room on the bends – and then had the misfortune to have a runner fall directly in front of him at the fourth last fence.
Despite this, he rallied to some effect and was only a head behind the winner at the line.
If the race was run 10 mores times, he would likely win them all – but he lost the one that counted…

Ofcourse, these things happens – but when you are playing at short odds, you don’t want them happening very often.
Let’s just hope the Top Picks don’t acquire the luck that has dogged TVB at various points in the past…

The other race of interest on the Ludlow card as the handicap chase at 2:25.
I did briefly consider tipping Big News in the race – but I’m very glad I didn’t…
Whether it was the ground or his last time out fall, I don’t know. But he ran no sort of a race and was pulled up just after half way.
Maybe some issue will come to light, to explain his poor run…

Over at Newbury, Dawalan won the first (and maybe some of you had time to read that I fancied him !).
He was considered as a Top Pick – but he price was just shortening too much.
Obviously, the Top Picks are not about prices – but even so, when I know something is going to be odds on, I’m going to struggle to put it up (the misfortune suffered by Benbens, should explain why).
Funnily enough, you could get a better price on him jumping the last, than you could have got at the off !
But he found reserves, battled well – and ultimately ended up a worthy winner…

In the following race, Gas Line Boy was a bit disappointing.
Again, he was hampered by a faller, quite early on – but his own jumping wasn’t that great either.
He ended up finishing a well beaten fourth – and I’m pretty sure he is better than that…

All but Grey ran well enough for a 100/1 shot – but never really looked like being involved in the finish.
He will be one for low grade handicaps.

Whilst Gullinbursti ran well – despite only finishing third of four.
As I intimated this morning, it was a tough race. And whilst he was best in at the weights, there was little in it.
Too close a call for a Top Pick – thankfully…

TVB.

2 comments:

  1. There is no doubt benbens would have won today only for interference,almost the perfect start!!!

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  2. I think he was a very unlucky loser Liam…
    Like I said in the review, these things happen. The trouble is, when you are playing at the front of the market, you can’t afford them to happen too often !
    Hopefully, that is the last ill fortune we’ll see for a while – fingers crossed, anyway !!
    A.

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