Daily write-up - Dec 26th

10 NH meetings have survived the elements and take place today, across the length and breadth of the British Isles…

I have restricted my interest to 4 of them: Kempton, Wetherby and Towcester in the UK; plus Leopardstown in Ireland…

First of all, I hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas day…

It was certainly nice for me to have a few days off (particularly with absolutely no racing to distract me !).

That said, it did feel a little strange getting back into things today – so that combined with some uncertainty over the ground, has resulted in me taking things a little easier than might otherwise have been the case…

Obviously the news on Monday that Captain Chris wasn’t going to run in todays King George, came as a big blow.

His participation had been in some doubt, literally since the day I tipped him. And just as it seemed as if he was going to get there, he fell at the final (pre-race !) fence…

We took around 25/1 – and he was around 10/1 on Sunday evening – so things were certainly looking promising.

Such are the risks of ante-post betting, I guess…

Anyway, that is now history – and whilst my appetite for that particularly race is now limited - there are some other decent contests that we can get our teeth into instead.

I’ve issued 5 tips – and whilst non of them are certainties, all 5 have a chance – and I would hope that at least one of them will be able to come good.

Here’s the rationale…

Kempton

12:50

I was quite keen to take on Dubai Prince in this…

He was a very decent flat performer – and made an impressive debut over hurdle at Leicester, However, but on soft ground (heavy  in places), with much stiffer opposition, this is going to be a significantly tougher challenge…

The other 3 penalised runners: Amore Alato, Vaniteux and Sgt Reckless all have to be respected – but I’ve opted to side with the hurdling maiden, Champagne at Tara…

His first 2 starts this season, showed him to be a very decent bumper horse.

An impressive victory at Newton Abbot was followed up by a big run in the bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting (where he was probably given a bit too much to do).

He made his hurdling debut at Kempton earlier this month, and finished third behind Vaniteux.

The winner won well that day – but on 8lb better terms, I am optimistic that Champagne at Tara will be able to turn the tables today…

Champagne at Tara was given quite a lot to do that day, but made up his ground stylishly in the straight – only for Vaniteux to run away from him after the last.

There is a suggestion that Champagne at Tara would ideally want more of a test than he will get today. However, I can see todays race being run at a strong pace as both Amore Alato and Sgt Reckless were impressive winners last time out, when adopting forcing tactics.

If this happens today, then on the prevailing soft ground, it should play perfectly into the hands of Champagne at Tara, who consequently represents a fair bet…

0.5pt win Champagne at Tara 7/1

2:00

I think this race is a bit more open than the betting would suggest…

Sure, Just a Par ultimately won easily enough at Newbury last time out, but that didn’t look particularly likely rounding the home turn.

He will certainly find Kemptons relatively sharp 3 mile, right handed track a different challenge to the big left handed bowl of Newbury.

He may well take to it just fine – but at the odds, I’m happy enough to oppose him…

Third Intention finished third in this race last season – and shouldn’t be really good enough to win. However, this does look a weak renewal, so despite finishing behind Just a Par last time out, his chance has to be respected…

So to does that of Green Flag, who has shown himself a progressive novice in the north. However, this will be his sternest test to day and whilst the soft ground should suit him well, he is short enough in the betting considering how much he has to prove…

Annacotty also has a lot to prove – but I simply can’t get way from the piece of form he showed over this course and distance, at the beginning of November…

He was the comfortable winner of a novice handicap chase that day, which has turned out to be just about the hottest race of the season so far !!

5 of the horses behind him have subsequently come out and won – and more than that, the 3 horses that chased him most closely (Present View, Off the Ground and Via Sundown) are now 8lb, 25lb and 22lb, higher in the handicap…

Admittedly, Annacotty has been a little disappointing on his 2 subsequent runs – but back over the Kempton fences and with first time blinkers in place, I think he represents a bit of value to create a shock, in what isn’t the most competitive grade 1 chase ever run…

0.25pt EW Annacotty 20/1

I’m sure that the 1:25 race will turn out to be a very hot contest – though it is not easy to figure out who is going to win it…

Unfortunately the 3 I’m most interested in, are the 3 at the top of the betting…

That said, the one I fancy the most, Western Warhorse, is the longest price of the 3. However, at just 9/2 – and with plenty of dangers in opposition, it wasn’t too difficult a decision to not tip in the contest…

The Christmas hurdle looks quite a fascinating contest, despite the fact it appears to be a 2 horse race…

My Tent or Yours – or A New One..?

Over this course and distance, my preference would be for the former – which could potentially make the Champion hurdle betting look a little more interesting, come 3:00…

Keep an eye out on your inboxes for a possible ante post bet, once the dust has settled on todays contest…

With Captain Chris no longer in the contest, my heart isn’t really in trying to find the winner of the King George…

That said, I’m amazed that the bookmakers are betting 4/1 each of 4 – and that can only be because the contrarian Tom Segal, has tipped Silvinianco Conti (who I think should be the longest priced of the 4).

I think Dynaste looks just about the most likely winner – but for some reason, I’ll be surprised if he actually collects (I’m not totally convinced by his willingness to battle).

The one that represent value, given the prevailing ground conditions, is Long Run…

This is his course and distance – and he’s also got his ground.

This could turn into a war and at 11/1, in a first time visor, it could be worth a small risk that his stamina once again brings him home in front…

Wetherby

1:45

It looks to me as if Nick Gifford has made a conscious assault on Wetherby, from his West Sussex base –and we are on two of his runners…

The first is Tullamore Dew in the Roland Meyrick chase…

Backing a horse that will be 12 years old in a few days time; is on a losing run of 19 – and is 3lb out of the handicap, wouldn’t seem the shrewdest move ever – but I’m hopefully that Tullamore Dew will be able to shrug off those statistics !

Certainly, if you look at his form, it is not that of a horse in decline…

He was fourth to Katenko at Cheltenham in January – and then filled the same position behind Golden Chieftain at the festival. Both of those were cracking runs – and Tullamore Dew is lower in the handicap today (despite carrying more than he should).

First time out this season, he also ran a really good race, behind Balthazaar King, again at Cheltenham…

Tullamore Dew should have no issue with todays heavy ground or the 3 mile trip – and with the conditions likely to be testing, his ultra light weight could prove a real bonus…

He has some tough rivals to beat – though Sydney Pagent and Nuts N Bolts have both taken hikes in the weights for their recent wins. Consequently, Cloudy Too is the one I would be most fearful of…

However, he’s a 3/1 shot – whilst Tullamore Dew was 3 times that price –I ask you, in those circumstances, what choice does a value bettor have ?1

0.5pt win Tullamore Dew 10/1

2:55

If forced to nominate one, I would probably say that Fairy Rath is the best bet of the day…

He was very progressive at the back end of last season, bagging a couple of decent prizes at Ascot and Haydock respectively…

On the strength of those wins, he was made favourite for a decent handicap chase at Ascot on his reappearance, but he fell at the last fence, when well beaten.

His next run was in another hot race at Newbury. He ran much better there, where he was still in contention at the second last fence.

Those 2 runs should have brought Fairy Rath to his peak and I would expect him to be in top form today.

He is will also be competing over a more suitable trip of 2m4f. His two runs this season have both been over the minimum trip, whist his improved form last spring was over the longer trip.

A drop in his handicap rating means that Fairy Rath gets to run today off a mark just 4lb higher than the one he was successful off at Haydock in May.

I am certainly optimistic that he can regain his upward momentum this afternoon.

0.5pt win Fairy Rath 10/1

Towcester

1:55

Bathwick Brave is a horse I know very well, as I tipped him twice last season, when he was running over hurdles…

He didn’t win on either occasion, but was unlucky both times: firstly falling at Newbury, when still going strongly; and then just failing to peg back Master of the Sea at Aintree…

Those two runs showed Bathwick Brave to be a good horse on an upward curve – and he confirmed that with a couple more smart runs, at the back end of the season…

Two and a half miles and heavy ground are almost certainly Bathwick Braves ideal conditions – and he gets those today for his chasing debut…

Obviously we don’t know yet what his jumping will be like – but that is often a risk in novice chasers.

With a run over hurdles at Wincanton under his belt, the cobwebs should now be gone – and he should therefore be able to perform to his best this afternoon…

There are a few potentially decent horses in opposition day – most notably, the mare Baby Shine.

In addition to receiving 7lb from Bathwick Brave, she also has the benefit of some chasing experience. However, her fencing technique so far, hasn’t looked flawless…

Ultimately, I just think that Bathwick Brave represents a bit of value on his chasing debut, in contest that should suit him perfectly.

0.5pt win Bathwick Brave 15/2

Leopardstown

No tips at Leopardstown – but definitely a race to watch…

The novice chase at 2:55 would be an enthralling race even if we had no interest in it – but we do…

Defy Logic – our ante-post bet for the Arkle chase- takes on Champagne Fever (current favourite for the Arkle) and 4 other very decent animals…

Whether he will be good enough to win, remains to be seen.

However, if he does, he won’t be available at anything like the current 25/1 after the race.

It should make interesting viewing…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 12:50 Champagne at Tara 7/1

Kemp 2:00 Annacotty 20/1

Weth 1:45 Tullamore Dew 10/1

Weth 2:55 Fairy Rath 10/1

Towc 1:55 Bathwick Brave 152/

Mentions

Kemp 1:25 Western Warhorse (P)

Kemp 3:10 Long Run (O)