Daily write-up - Nov 5th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Leicester, Market Rasen and Wincanton in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland.

Lots of races and lots of horses – but it is more quantity than quality and finding suitable bets wasn’t that easy…

I eventually settled on a couple and whilst I do fancy both of them – I’m not quite so keen on their prices !

Still, we know how accurate the market is nowadays, so I just had to ask myself whether I feel they represented value at the available odds – and the answer in both cases, was yes – just about..!

As I mentioned when I issued the tips, it is particularly important that you try to secure a best odds guarantee when we are playing at the front end of the market. In truth, it is always something you should try and do – but with the early markets so tight price wise, there is every chance that a winner will drift.

This is less likely when we get a big price (like yesterday) as we are exploiting a rick in the pricing…

Anyway, on to the rationale for the days tips – and a few words on some of the days other races…

Leicester

2:00

Lemons Gent is a horse with quite a specific set of requirements: he wants a 2m4f trip and quick ground…

He first got those conditions on his penultimate run at Uttoxeter in May and he showed that day that he is a well handicapped horse, by running away with what admittedly, was quite a poor race…

He was raised 8lb for that win and didn’t appear again until Kempton early last month.

He ran in a better class of race that day, but looked likely to follow up until weakening up the home straight.

Whether is was the softer ground at kempton – or a lack of peak fitness – I don’t know, but hopefully it was one or the other…
If that is the case, then he simply has to go close today off a 2lb lower mark, with his fitness assured and on quicker ground…

My niggling worry with him is whether he has a breathing problem…

This can often be the case with horses that don’t find much off the bridle – and the application of a tongue tie today, certainly implies there has been an issue.

If there has been a problem and the tongue tie sorts it out, he should win – but I always feel a little uncomfortable about tipping horses with physical issues (I’ve been bitten too often !).

My other slight reservation is the track. Leicester has got quite a steep up hill finish – so we really don’t want to see him emptying after the last…

What I will be doing, is putting an a very low in-running lay…

I would feel relatively confident that at the bottom of the home straight, Lemons Gent will still be swinging away and looking like he is going to hack up.

The question will be whether he goes through with his effort. I’ll be looking to get my money back around the third last fence - whether you look to do likewise is ofcourse, entirely up to you !!

0.5pt win Lemons Gent 4/1

In the last race on the card, I would expect Voltchesko to recover the losses that were incurred on his seasonal debut at Lingfield.

He was very well backed that day and travelled like a dream through the race.

However the desperate ground seemed to eventually find him out and he faded close home.

With that run under his belt and on much quicker ground today, I’ll be surprised if he is not quite a bit too good for his rivals.

Wincanton

2:10

Goring One is one of those unglamorous horses, who seems to continually run decent races, but doesn’t really get noticed doing so…

He has won 6 of his 20 starts over fences – including 3 out of 6 at Wincanton - and run some really good races in defeat as well…

His 2 runs this season, have probably been personal bests and strongly suggest that he is the horse to beat in todays race…

First time out, he dead heated with Jump City in a 2m5f race over this course.

There was some carnage in the race that day, so he was maybe a little fortunate to win – but as it was his seasonal debut and over an inadequate trip, he non the less deserves some credit for a battling share of the spoils..

On his next – and most recent outing – Goring One ran in what I suspect will turn out to be a very hot contest at Ascot…

Ultimately he wasn’t quite good enough for the very well handicapped pair of Night Alliance and Duke of Lucca but he lost little in defeat and simply has to be of major interest off the same mark today – and in a seemingly weaker race…

Unlike Lemons Gent, there is very little doubt about Goring One getting home today – he actually won the corresponding race 12 moths ago (in the process, taking the scalp of that equine goliath, Plein Pouvoir ;) ).

There are potential danger in the race – particularly in the shape of Allthekingshorses and Shockingtimes – but there is absolutely no doubt that Goring One is the solid call – and I believe he represents a bit of value, even at 4/1…

0.5pt win Goring One 4/1

I was quite keen to get involved in the next race on the card – but I couldn’t decide which horse to side with..!
I was initially drawn to Roman Flight, on the back of a very promising seasonal debut at Kempton. However, he is quite short in the betting for a horse who would prefer a slightly longer trip…

The other one that kept on catching my eye, was Sleeping City…

He ran really promisingly on his seasonal debut, last time out – and if you could take that run at face value, he would be of major interest today.

He cruised round the outside of his field that day and looked sure to take hand in the finish until lack of fitness seemed to catch him out.

With that run under his belt and off a mark 2lb lower today, he really could look of interest - if it weren’t for the rest of his form…!

Firstly he looks to have a bit of an issue just getting round: 3 falls from 7 runs over hurdles, is not a great record; secondly, I just wonder whether he is simply a ‘bridle’ horse. There is no evidence in his record of him actually going through with his effort – though he clearly travels very well…

If he puts everything in this afternoon, I suspect he could just about win – but with so many doubts, I can’t bring myself to tip him – even at fairly decent odds…

What I will do instead, is back him and lay off in running as he enters the home straight (a little bit like I intend to do with Lemons Gent)…

Market Rasen

It s quite a poor card at Market Rasen..

The best race there is the novice handicap chase which will be run at 1:20…

Young Hurricane was a decent winner last time out and could follow up today.

However at better odds, I would probably side with Samstown, if I was forced to have a bet…

He ran a fair race behind Hollow Blue Sky on his seasonal debut and if he can build on that, he could go close today.

Clonmel

Again, not a lot of betting opportunities and it is the two beginners chases on the card that I focused on…

In the first of them at 2:15, Kalmann is bound to be very popular for the Mullins/Ricci combination – particularly as it is the only ride of the day for Ruby Walsh.

Despite disappointing on his only previous run for Mullins, he could easily outclass this field.

However, I was quite taken by Teelin Star last time out and he might be worth a small play against the favourite…

Great things were expected of him 12 months ago – but he didn’t deliver. However he was running with much more credit prior to falling last time out.

If he can build on that run, I could see him outrunning his odds this afternoon…

In the 3:15 race, Is Herself About is the one that interests me…

She was a decent novice hurdler the season before last and whilst last year was a disappointment, her latest run suggested that the talent is still there…

Switched to fences for the first time, there is obviously a risk – but I reckon she has sufficient natural ability to go close this afternoon, if her jumping is up to scratch…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leic 2:00 Lemons Gent 4/1

Winc 2:10 Goring One 4/1

Mentions

Leic 3:30 Voltchesko (P)

Winc 2:40 Sleeping City (S)

MR 1:20 Samstown (P)

Clon 2:15 Teelin Star (O)

Clon 3:15 Is Herself About (S)