Daily write-up - Dec 15th

3 meetings today: Carlisle and Southwell in the UK – and Navan in Ireland…

Maybe it’s because it’s my sixth successive day tipping; or maybe it’s following on the back of 3 very good days racing – but whatever the reason, I struggled to find much for today…

In fact, if it hadn’t been for the Navan card, it would have been a blank day – and even with it, I still considered a day off…

Part of the reason was because I’ve not been able to tip the 2 horses that I most wanted to…

I’ve been waiting for Knock a Hand – but he is now an even money shot in a 3 horse race at Carlisle (I think not !); whilst Hop In is a 5/1 shot is a competitive 16 runner handicap at Navan…

Ofcourse, both might well win - but as the last few days have confirmed, ‘value’ is everything in this game – and simply, neither horse represent value, at the prices on offer today…

I think I’ve found a couple that do however…

It’s never easy to be sure in these big field Irish handicaps – but I’m pretty confident we are on two who are well handicapped, progressive and will be trying – and you can’t ask for much more than that !
Time will tell if they are good enough – doubtless there are plenty of dangers in their races and both with need a bit of luck in-running. But if they get it, you never know…

Anyway, on to the rationale for todays tips – and a few thoughts on the some of the other races…

Navan

1:40

A very competitive race – but one in which I think Brian Who has a decent chance…

He had some reasonable form in handicap hurdles last season – but really seemed to come into his own when the big festivals came round in the spring…

A victory at the Fairyhouse Easter festival, was followed by a creditable fourth place at the Punchestown festival..

Those 2 runs suggested that, for whatever reason, Brian Who had taken his form to a slightly higher level.

And that impression was confirmed on his comeback run this season at Fairyhouse at the end of last month.

In another massive field, Brian Who found himself a bit further back than ideal when the pace quickened on the run for home.

He was finishing to some effect all the way up the home straight, but unlike fellow finisher, Followmeuptocarlow, he couldn’t quite get there.

Bearing in mind however that it was his first run for 5 months, it was still a creditable effort – and assuming he has come on for it, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be in the thick of things today, off a mark just 2lb higher…

Obviously in a race such as this, there are plenty of dangers…

My entry point for the race was actually the Willie Mullins trained Sarabad. He’s caught my eye on his 2 runs this season – travelling powerfully in both of this races.
However, I’ve got a feeling that travelling powerfully is all that he does. Ofcourse, dropping him back in trip might help today – but on balance I decided to go with a horse who I know will be finishing his race – and Brian Who fits that bill…

0.5pt win Brian Who 11/1

2:45

Oscar Business was a massive eye catcher last time out in the Cork National…

Despite being completely unfancied that day, she was bang there, in the leading group, turning for home and only faded from that point…

She had not run for 6 months – and the extreme trip was probably too far for her, so the fact she did back out, was not really surprising…

However, the run demonstrated a return to form and that suggests that she has a good chance today.

She went off the boil after Christmas last year, but her form prior to then gives her a definite shout today.

She was competing mainly in mares events at that time – but running with credit.

Rated as high as 123 over hurdles, I’m sure she has the basic ability to go close today off a mark of 111. And with trip and ground seemingly perfect, I would expect her to put in a big run.

Of her opponents, Jupitor was the one who most caught my eye: though it is also true that there is very little between Oscar Business and Bullock Harbour on novice form…

The latter has not shown anything worthwhile for a long time, but if he were to bounce back today, he is weighted to go very close.

0.5pt win Oscar Business 10/1

As I mentioned in the introduction, the horse I really wanted to tip today at Navan, was Hop It.

He was very unlucky not to win on his penultimate run – and to a lesser extent, last time out…

He has been raised 9lb for those two defeats – which obviously isn’t great, but probably isn’t insurmountable either…

However, he is running today in a competitive 16 runner handicap.

I can give a really good chance to at least 3 of his rivals – and half chances to 3 or 4 others…

His running style means he is likely to need a bit of luck in running – so what is a fair price to take…?

At 7 or 8/1, I would have taken the plunge – but 5/1 just seems too short…

Like I said, he may well win – but I just can’t bring myself to tip him at that price…

There is a cracking novice chase at 2:15 and I expect Sizing Gold to come out on top.

He was a very good novice hurdler last season – and has the scope to do even better over fences.

However, he is a best priced 7/4 – and again faces 2 or 3 decent rivals.

Add into that the fact he is making his debut over fences and he can’t be a tip (I still expect him to win tho !).

Carlisle

I’ve not got too much to say about this meeting…

I wanted to tip Knock a Hand – and with King of the Wolds in the race, we might have got close to 3/1 and I would have done.

However, that one is a non runner and Knock a Hand is now an 11/10 shot…

Worse than that, his 2 opponents aren’t mugs – and he’s not the cleverest over fences…

If he gets everything right he will could win easily - but he’s not even money to do that.

Most definitely a watching brief is advised…

In the previous race, I would expect Kaki De La Pree to show that his opening handicap mark is quite generous.

Certainly his 1 length defeat by yesterdays impressive Cheltenham scorer, Kings Place looks very good form.

However, that is just one piece of form and there is no margin in a quote of 5/2 against some seasoned – but decent quality – handicappers…

Southwell

Possibly even less to say about the Southwell card…

If Roc D’Apsis jumps round, he should win the opener – but at 2/1 there is no margin in the price…

Whilst those who would like something more speculative could be tempted by Walk on Al in the 2:05 race, on his second outing for Dan Skelton…

There was definite promise in his first run – though it is impossible to know how his form stacks up against that of the other main protagonists in the race…

Here’s to a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Nav 1:40 Brian Who 11/1

Nav 2:45 Oscar Business 10/1

Mentions

Nav 12:35 Hop In (P)

Nav 1:40 Sarabad (O)

Nav 2:15 Sizing Gold (P)

Nav 2:45 Jupitor (O)

Carl 1:30 Kaki de La Pree (P)

Sout 12:25 Roc D’Apsis (P)

Sout 2:05 Walk on Al (S)