Monthly report - November

For those of you who weren’t with the service last season, I aim to produce a monthly report at the end of each of the 5 months of the service…

Obviously, a month is not a long time in tipping – so it would be unwise to jump to too many conclusions based on such a period. However, I think it is important to keep focused on the targets and progress, and I think a monthly report helps achieve that.

To this end then, here is the report for November – the first month of the 2013-14 season:

Starting with the headline figures:

TVB tips

Total staked: 37.5pts

Total profit: 7.25pts

ROI  19%

*Adjusted figures

Total staked: 37.5pts

Total profit: 6pts

ROI  16%

*The adjusted figures assume that all bets are layed off at 2 IR to produce the same profit regardless of whether it wins the race.

The total profit, is based on getting the best generally available price at the time I issue the tip (with the stated bookmakers – including BOG, if offered).

I would hope this would be considered a ‘fair’ representation of what is achievable (with suitable commitment – and plenty of bookmaker accounts !)

If you had managed to achieve the best possible price on selections it would have been possible to achieve 9.25pt profit on the month – but I doubt many of you will have done this…

In a way, these figures are actually unimportant to you guys…

You made whatever profit (or loss !) you made – and that is that.

Only you can decide, whether the TVB service offers ‘value’ to you (in terms of profit, education or even entertainment !).

I would be amazed if any two of you managed to achieve the same P&L figure – partially because you wont have got all of the same prices – but also because you won’t even have backed all of the same horses !

I don’t suppose many of you all back every single tip; and I’m sure that some of you backed some of the mentions – and maybe even some of the horses that were just discussed in the write-up…

This said, the official P&L is an important number for me – which is why I need to calculate what can be considered a ‘fair’ number, and record it…

I may believe that the main value of the TVB service is in the write-ups – but it will be the P&L that potential new subscribers will first judge it by.

I therefore need to try and maintain a reasonable P&L throughout the season, so that when it comes round to me getting new subscribers, I have them knocking on the door to get in ! (and I can therefore be choosy about who I let on board ;) )

Anyway, enough of about the headline numbers – a little on the detail…

The first thing that strikes me is that the adjusted figure says we weren’t unlucky this month !!

Clearly that is ridiculous, as TVB is always unlucky ;)

Actually, I know we had a couple of unbelievable finishes go against us (in Pod and Tullyraine) – but I didn’t think we were that unlucky…

There were the runs of Milord, Ifandbutwhynot, Unoccupied and Merry King, which were all unlucky in their way (and didn’t count in the adjusted figure) – but that is racing…

That said, we did have a couple trade at 2.02 and 2.06 in running – and these obviously weren’t included in the adjusted figure.

If they had been, then the adjusted figure would have stood at 11.25pts – so maybe it was a little unlucky !!

The 37.5pts staked were spread across 83 horses competing in 60 races.

That means we were staking an average of 0.625pts per race.

My aim is for 1pt per race – and whilst this won’t always be the case, I do think the staking was generally a little light…

However, I touched on that a few times during the month – and I think is was due in part at least, to me consciously starting the month in a conservative fashion.
The question is, how easy will I find to change this..?!

More generally, I was pleased with the way that spreading the risk across multiple horses in a race helped smooth the P&L.

Obviously it wasn’t great to see Milosam chin Pod on the line – but at least it meant that we made a slight profit on the race, rather than a 1pt loss.

That does help reduce P&L volatility - and it also helps me stay sane (ish) !!

In terms of placings, then the 83 horses achieved the following:

1^st – 9

2^nd – 10

3^rd – 10

4^th - 15

That is a pretty even spread, which again suggests our luck for the month was relatively balanced.

It is also good to see me achieving close to my target 25% first or second placing and 50% in the first 4 (though I don’t want to read too much into this as it is greatly affected by the types of horses I tip – and races I tip in).

In terms of numbers, then that is just about it…

In terms of how it all felt – then it felt OK…

Clearly it was a bit intense at times – and I reckon that I have written close on 100,000 words this month – which seems crazy !

However, I can just about juggle it all – provided I get a bit of time off every now and then – and have an appreciative audience J

And on that last point, I intend to shortly issue a ‘satisfaction survey’…

I did the same thing after a month last year and I found the input very useful.

I think you need a month to get comfortable with the service – but if I leave it much longer, then the season will nearly be over !

Anyway, I will send it out in the next day or two and would be grateful if you could all fill it in and return in to me.

I’ll keep the format simple and relatively free form – so it shouldn’t take too long to complete.

I think that just about covers everything – hopefully we can build on a relatively solid foundation and make December even better !

TVB.