Daily write-up - Dec 29th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – plus the final day of the Christmas festivals at Leopardstown and Limerick, in Ireland…

I’m not sure where they’ve pulled it from, but Doncaster have come up with a tremendous card for this afternoon…

5 thoroughly absorbing handicaps are complemented by a couple of decent novice events – well done them !!

Most of my effort last night went into that card, because for all of it’s grade 1 glamour, the Leopardstown card has little punting appeal – and I was only ever going to be interested in 1 horse at Limerick (it was simply a question of whether the price was acceptable – and it was, just !).

The meeting at Kelso barely registered with me – I just spent a few minutes looking at what had taken Jason Maguire there, instead of to Doncaster, for a seemingly decent ride on Real Milan...

We’ve ended up with tips in 5 races – which is slightly more than I initially thought. But I’ve kept the stakes generally small – so it’s again a case of spreading wide and thin.

Hopefully we’ll manage to catch one (or two !) today – and get things back on track.

It’s been a great month so far – let’s just hope the past couple of days are simply a blip !!

Here’s the rationale for todays tips…

Doncaster

1:15

Cowards Close is the interesting one here…

An unexposed novice, trained by Paul Nichols, running off a mark of just 125 – when one of his 2 victories from last season suggests he could easily be rated a few pounds higher…

He could well take this – but is priced accordingly and there is always a danger that a  horse like him can be over-rated…

Strictly on form, I think Don’t be Late is the horse to beat.

He is also a novice but has been running in open handicaps since May and has racked up a fair few runs in that period.

However he seems to still be progressing and returned from a 3 month break to finish a highly creditable third in a very decent class 2 event at Newbury last time out.

That race was over 2m4f, but Don’t be Late was running on strongly at the end, suggesting that the step up to todays 3mile trip, was exactly what he wanted…

Western Jo is a more speculative punt…

He will be having only his third run over hurdles today and after wining a novice event on his hurdling debut last April, was well fancied for a handicap hurdle on his seasonal debut at Bangor last month.
All seemed to be going fine, as he ranged up along side the leader rounding the home turn – but then he went out like the preverbal light !

Whether it was the trip; the ground; the fact it was his seasonal debut – or some other reason, I don’t know – but it did look a little strange.

Obviously there is a risk tipping him on the back of such a run – but I think that has been factored into the price (and some !).
Certainly, with the connections he’s got – and on the back of the form he showed last season, he would be a fraction of today price, if he hadn’t run at Bangor.
I’m just hoping that run can be attributed to a combination of it being his seasonal debut and the soft ground – because if it can, he could create a surprise this afternoon…

0.25pt win Don’t be Late 6/1

0.25pt win Western Jo 16/1

2:20

Just so you know, I think Regal Presence might be something of a nut case, so we could be in for an interesting run with him !

That said, he has plenty of talent, to go with his quirks, so we’ve just got to hope that his natural ability proves greater than his wayward tendencies…

That was case when he opened his account over hurdles at Ascot, last April.

He was a 33/1 shot that day, but was pulling double over his rivals for most of the final circuit.

Having gone on down the back straight, he then looked highly likely to throw in the towel at any point – but he didn’t…

He eventually won by just a couple of lengths - but it was clear that he had the ability to have won by much more…

For whatever reason, following a fair enough debut run over fences, the handicapper has chosen to drop Regal Presence by 6lb putting him on a mark just 3lb higher than the one he was successful from at Ascot.

I suspect that might be a mistake on his behalf – and hopefully Regal Presence will capitalise on it this afternoon…

The other thing that strikes me as a little odd in todays race, is that Adian Coleman is riding Regal Presence even though Venetia has a runner in the race.

I’ve no idea why that would be – but the suggestion is that it’s a positive thing !

Let’s hope so !!

0.5 pt win Regal Presence 8/1

2:55

This is a cracking little race – and there were 3 in it that caught my eye: Figaro, Little Pop and Ballyhooley Boy…

Figaro made yesterday’s Challow hurdle winner, Captain Cutter, pull out all the stops at Market Rasen last time out. If the form of that race can be taken at face value, he will win today. It’s certainly not surprising that he is favourite…

Little Pop also ran very well last time (despite his finishing position). He led to the second last in an ultra competitive novice handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

I would expect him to run very well in this lesser event…

However both Figaro and Little Pop ran really well last time, when they were able to dominate their fields - clearly it will not be possible of both of them to do that today !

Ballyhooley Boy is the third member of todays field, who caught my eye last time out…

He ran a very respectable fourth in one of the strongest novice events of the season so far, at Cheltenham December meeting…

The race was won by Ballyalton, with Garde La Victoire in second and Cocktails at Dawn, third.

The race was run at a bit of a crawl, so Ballyhooley Boys finishing position might flatter him – though I’m not so sure…

I’ve watched the replay a few times – and either Charlie Poste rides like a bag of potatoes or he was doing his level best to prevent Ballyhooley Boy from finishing too close to some very talented rivals (and thereby ruin his handicap mark).

In fairness to Poste (!) I suspect it might be the former – but at 10/1, I’m prepared to take the risk that Ballyhooley Boy is far better than his current handicap mark might suggest…

0.25pt win Ballyhooley Boy 10/1

3:25

I could be wrong here (it does happen occasionally !) – but I think I might have found one with Iron Butterfly…

First things first, this is not the most competitive race ever run (as is often the case with these mares hurdle events).

The favourite, Favourite Girl, was a fair winner last time out (beating Hartside) but she has been raised 5lb for that win and doesn’t set an insurmountable standard…

Iron Butterfly only finished sixth on her most recent run at Uttoxeter – and on the face of it, off the same mark today, there seems little reason to be siding with her.

But I think there is…

Firstly, I reckon that the Uttoxeter race, will turn out to be a very hot contest. It was won in imperious fashion by Ut Majeur Aulmes, with Mystifiable (whom I tipped that day) in second.

Only fourth placed Leviathan has subsequently come out and tested the form – but he was a very good winner of a decent race at Haydock.

The Uttoxeter race was over 2 miles, and Iron Butterfly finished very strongly to take sixth place (after getting a little outpaced).

As a proven stayer on the flat (she won over 2 miles in October) there is every likelihood that she will need in excess of that distance over hurdles, so todays 2m4f trip could well to see improvement in her form.

If that is the case, then against mainly limited rivals, I think she will take a lot of beating…

0.75pt win Iron Butterfly 9/1

I really wanted to have a crack at the 2:40 race – but I couldn’t find the right horse to go with…

Initially I was drawn to Next Sensation (even though he is favourite) – but I have some worries about his fencing technique.

Next it was Doynosaur. She jumps very well – but I just wonder if she is quite up to this class…

I then moved on to Royal Guardsman – and if forced, I would side with him. However, he just might find 2 miles on quick ground enough of a speed test…

I couldn’t completely rule out 2 or 3 others, so on balance, it had to be a no tip race (but definitely one to watch closely !)

Limerick

2:15

Despite the massive field (although, 3 withdrawals will help with that), this really looks a 3 or 4 runner race to me (as is often the case with these Irish big field, low grade handicaps).

Pencilhimin is a horse that I’ve literally been waiting all season to tip (in fact I did tip him earlier in the month, but he was withdrawn in the morning).

He is clearly a difficult to horse to train, as is demonstrated by the fact that he was 8 years old when he made his racecourse debut.

That was at Limerick in March and he absolutely bolted up in a heavy ground maiden, looking a decent horse in the process…

He was given a mark of 106 for that win, which looked fair enough, and was sent off an 8/1 shot for a competitive 20 runner handicap at the Fairyhouse Easter festival on his next run.

However, he ran no sort of a race that day and was pulled up…

His next – and most recent outing – was his seasonal debut in November, again at Fairyhouse.

He ran an eye-catching race that day, to finish fifth in what was a good race for the grade.

He’s actually been dropped a pound for that run – but I think that is immaterial.

The question is simply, whether he is in the physical shape to run his race today.

If he is, then with only 2 or 3 realistic rivals to overcome, I think he will take a lot of beating…

0.5pt win Pencilhimin 5/1 (pre R4)

Leopardstown

The Leopardstown card is more for the purists, than the bettors…

There are 2 cracking grade 1 events, which will doubtless have repercussions on the rest of the season…

Firstly, there is the Ryanair hurdle at 2:00, where Hurricane Fly takes on young pretenders, Our Connor and Jezki…

It’s impossible to argue that Hurricane Fly has been a tremendous horse over the years – but he will be 10 years old in a few days time.

More than that, he’s generally been beating up the same rivals - and this season there are some new kids on the block – and they look seriously talented…

Ofcourse, today will be their acid test, as they take on a proven champion – but it’s a proven champion who is probably past his peak.

It’s impossible to be dogmatic about the outcome – but less so about the ‘value’…

Hurricane Fly is too short in my book, at even money. He maybe deserves to be edging favouritism – but only just.

I think Our Connor has the most to prove (even though he could be something special).

I would therefore make Jezki the value call at 3/1…

Whether he will win, is a different matter – and victory for any of the 3 wouldn’t be a big surprise.

Certainly a race to really look forward to….

Almost as fascinating, is the Topaz chase at 3:05…

Of course, we have an interest in this, with todays favourite, Morning Assembly, whom we have secured at 25/1 for the Sun Alliance chase…

He is already about half that price, and victory for him today would doubtless shade a few more points off his price…

Do I think he will win – yes, I do.

He’s my big hope for the festival and I won’t hear of defeat for him.

That said, todays race will be tough – really tough.

Bright New Dawn, Carlingford Lough and Foxrock represent serious rivals.

But I honestly think Morning Assembly is the real deal – and I’ll be disappointed if he’s not up to the job.

Just a quick mention for the first race on the card, where I toyed with tipping Love Rory..

I’ve always been a fan of his and he finally came good last time out over the cross country course at Punchestown.

If he can translate that form to the conventional fences today, then he should take the beating off a mark of 113.

He was 9/1 early and I would have taken a chance at that price – but the margin isn’t quite there at 6/1 in an 18 runner chase…

He’s therefore just a mention instead…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Donc 1:15 Don’t be Late 6/1

Donc 1:15 Western Jo 16/1

Donc 2:20 Regal Presence 8/1

Donc 2:55 Ballyhooley Boy 10/1

Donc 3:25 Iron Butterfly 9/1

Lim 2:15 Pencilhimin 5/1 (pre R4)

Mentions

Donc 12:40 Royal Guardsman (O)

Leop 12:35 Love Rory (P)

Leop 2:00 Jezki (O)